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Eurizon Weekly 16 Sep. 2024. Last week the ECB’s policy meeting confirmed market expectations, cutting rates by 25 basis points. In the US, headline inflation was in line with expectations, whereas the core component grew slightly more than expected in monthly terms. The interest rate market was stable overall, while stocks recovered well, after the previous week’s round of profit-taking. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.   Audio recorded on 16 Sep. 2024

Eurizon Weekly 9 Sep. 2024. US labour market data came in weaker than expected, but showed that the normalisation phase continues. The data were consistent with soft landing scenario, but start to justify a monetary policy easing. The interest rate market reacted by staying on a downtrend. Profit-taking on the stock markets. Focus is now on the ECB and the Fed. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 9 Sep. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 2 Sep. 2024. The markets recovered well after volatility had surged in the opening days of August, triggered by the mix of weaker than expected US labour market data, softer than expected quarterly corporate results, and the swift unwinding of financing positions in yens as a result of the Japanese central bank’s rate hike. Fed open to an initial rate cut in September. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 2 Sep. 2024.

The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 22 July 2024. The ECB’s policy meeting lived up to investor expectations and market focus is mostly on the earnings reporting season, and in particular on the potential impact of the new political scenario in the US may reap on corporate results as well as on the global growth outlook. The interest rate market reacted in orderly fashion. On the other hand, uncertainty tied to the future US political agenda and the global crash of many IT systems on Friday, generated volatility on the stock markets. The market still expects a gradual reduction of rates in both the US and in Europe, although investor focus is once again on the timing of the moves. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 22 July 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 15.07.24. The much anticipated June inflation reading in the US surprised investor expectations last week in part by coming in weaker than forecast. The overall reduction of yields, and the possibility of the macro picture enabling the Fed to open the rate cut cycle, and the ECB to consolidate the accommodative policy already being implemented, was welcomed by the stock markets as well, although caution prevailed ahead of the opening of the quarterly earnings seasons. Investor focus is still mainly on macro data, although some political and geopolitical factors, such as the race for the US presidency, should also be closely monitored. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 July 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 08.07.24 The mix of events of a political nature and of macro data was at the heart of market dynamics. In Europe, the elections in France and in the United Kingdom captured the attention of the markets, whereas US macro data were once again decisive in outlining the macro scenario on which the Fed will make its future decisions. In the UK, the elections went as expected, with a landslide victory for Labour, called to relaunch the country’s economy. In France, on the other hand, the elections failed to assign an absolute parliamentary majority to any of the parties, therefore a government coalition will have to be formed.
This week, focus will be on the US inflation reading, due out on Thursday, after the release of European inflation data in the past few days. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.  Audio recorded on 08 July 2024

The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility.   Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 24.06.24. Last week caution prevailed among investors, faced with a scenario marred by political uncertainty in France that is to some extent conditioning the markets in Europe, whereas in the US macro data are still proving rather solid. European spreads were stable, after rising on the political developments in France, and stayed effectively unchanged in the week. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 24 June 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 17 June 2024. Last week was rife with both macroeconomic and political events. In Europe, the outcome of the elections to renew the European Parliament, while leaving potential majorities shielded from major upheavals, had important repercussions at the national levels. Considerable turbulences emerged in Europe, reflected both by the stock lists, that suffered losses in the week, and by spreads. On the other hand, government bonds performed well in the week, also thanks to lower than expected inflation in the United States, with US indices scoring gains. Stefano Cucchi, of Euizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 17 June 2024