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Evergrande, China Real Estate, the Economy and Common Prosperity!
Evergrande is a perfect Quantum Disruption. The effects will flow through to the economy, deleveraging and the replacement of the current Chinese housing model by that clearly stipulated in President Xi Jinping's new ideology of Common Prosperity.
It was a known-known that China was way over leveraged and saddled with a legacy of unproductive assets.. But we were told it didn't matter because the Chinese owed the debts to themselves. Such comfortable, dumb. consensus forecasts have now been disrupted by a single Quantum event: Evergrande going bust. The housing market was a part of this architecture of inefficiency and inequality. Tycoons and corrupt officials reaped economic rents along the way. People buying houses to dwell in lost out and paid the economic rents to the rich. Inequality blossomed. It's over!
The short term cost will be recession. The long term benefit is affordable housing, less wealth and income inequality and a more efficient economy.
However, most international investors are on the losing side of this manichaean battle....and will suffer accordingly.
Evergrande, China Real Estate, the Economy and Common Prosperity!
Evergrande is a perfect Quantum Disruption. The effects will flow through to the economy, deleveraging and the replacement of the current Chinese housing model by that clearly stipulated in President Xi Jinping's new ideology of Common Prosperity.
It was a known-known that China was way over leveraged and saddled with a legacy of unproductive assets.. But we were told it didn't matter because the Chinese owed the debts to themselves. Such comfortable, dumb. consensus forecasts have now been disrupted by a single Quantum event: Evergrande going bust. The housing market was a part of this architecture of inefficiency and inequality. Tycoons and corrupt officials reaped economic rents along the way. People buying houses to dwell in lost out and paid the economic rents to the rich. Inequality blossomed. It's over!
The short term cost will be recession. The long term benefit is affordable housing, less wealth and income inequality and a more efficient economy.
However, most international investors are on the losing side of this manichaean battle....and will suffer accordingly.