Expected Value

Trevor May is an ESPN Statcast analyst, podcaster, and former MLB pitcher for the Twins, Mets, and Athletics. He pitched professionally from 2008-2023, originally being drafted by the Phillies. Since retiring, he has done various podcasts, founded an Esports Lab applying sabermetric principles to gaming, and continued to grow his online presence through various media. In this episode he discusses…

• Available data early in his playing career and the evolution of Statcast

• Learning metrics to understand his and others successes

• Differences between being a starter and a reliever at the big league level

• Opponent preparation and how he approached various hitters

• Transitioning from player to analyst and becoming more involved on the media side

• The learning curve of ESPN’s Statcast broadcast and hopes for it moving forward

• Communicating data to a large audience and ways to make it digestible

• Starting an Esports lab to evaluate Overwatch teams and bringing more data to the industry

• Favorite video games, baseball movies, highlights of career, and much more

Show links

• Follow Trevor on Twitter @IamTrevorMay

• Follow Trevor on Instagram @trevmay65

• Subscribe to Trevor on YouTube @TrevorMayBaseball

• Listen to his podcasts: Rates + Barrels, Foul Territory, May Contain Action Podcast

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Zach Stovall is the Director of Analytics for the University of Tennessee baseball team who just won their first College World Series. He studied at UT while also working for the baseball team as a student manager. After three seasons with the Texas Rangers at their various minor league affiliates, he returned to the Volunteers for the 2024 season. In this episode, he discusses…

• Balancing schoolwork while working for a D1 baseball program

• Winning a College World Series vs a Major League World Series

• Interning at the Cape Cod League and studying under various scouts

• The differences between player development at the college and pro ball levels

• Communicating data to players of various ages and experience

• Pathway to pro ball and transitioning from college

• The evolution of baseball technology at the college level

• Barbecue food, best ballparks, highlight moments thus far, and much more

Show links

• Follow Zach on Twitter @stovall_zach

• Zach’s profile on UT Baseball

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Lance Brozdowski is a Player Development Analyst at Marquee Sports Network, the regional sports network for the Chicago Cubs. He brings an analytical insight and makes it more digestible for baseball fans. In this episode, he discusses…

• Methods he utilizes to evaluate and breakdown MLB players and prospects

• What a player development analyst does for a regional sports network

• Thoughts about the new, publicly available bat tracking data

• Working with and debating former big league players and managers

• Analytics and metrics that he hopes to have more access to in the future

• Pathway to getting here from an accounting background

• Communicating complex topics on air

• Under the radar prospects, favorite current pitch, who he’d start a franchise with, and much more

Show links

• Follow Lance Brozdowski on Twitter @LanceBroz

• Sign up for Lance’s Substack

• Check out Lance’s YouTube

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Tom Bliss is a Senior Manager of Football Operations Data Scientist for the NFL. He and his team work to improve the game for fans, players, and organizations through data analysis. They are constantly researching new ways to make the game more entertaining and safer. In this episode, he discusses…

• NFL rule changes including the expectations around the new kickoff rule

• The schedule release and the various considerations the league looks at

• His day-to-day responsibilities and what programming is utilized in his role

• NGS, PFF, and various player tracking tools

• Big Data Bowl and what leads to successful entries

• Statistics that are likely to become publicly available for this season

• Pairing his physics/astronomy major with his current position

• Highlights of his career journey thus far

Show links

• Follow Tom Bliss on Twitter @DataWithBliss

• Tom’s blog centered around NFL Weather Data

• Codecademy article spotlighting Tom: Cool Job

• Learn more about the NFL’s Big Data Bowl

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Dr. Curtis Goss is a Performance Support Specialist for USA Swimming where he is currently prepping for the Olympic trials and the 2024 Summer Olympics. He was a collegiate swimmer at Indiana University where he also completed his PhD in Human Performance. In this episode, he discusses…

• The current landscape of data and tech within the sport of swimming

• U.S. Trials and the anticipation for potential record breaking races

• Communicating data to swimmers of various ages and experience

• The ups and downs of current technology and the manual aspects to data collection

• Evaluating swimmer performance and identifying areas of improvement

• Swimming techniques and philosophies

• His path to working for USA Swimming and his drastically different career plan

• Working with Katie Ledecky, Caeleb Dressel, Kate Douglass, etc.

• Highlights of his career journey thus far

Show links

• Follow Curtis on Twitter: @CurtisGoss13

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Tim Gibbons is TruMedia’s baseball professional services lead, dealing with players, agencies and facilities. He previously worked as a minor-league hitting coach in the Orioles system. In this episode, Tim talks about…

- His career path to becoming a hitting coach

- What a minor-league hitting coach does

- Data available to minor-league teams

- How a minor-league team’s approach is influenced by the parent club

- Communicating data to players

- Mixing data with coaching of mechanics

- How facilities and agencies use data

- New baseball data points available to coaches

- Follow Tim on Twitter: @LineDrivePro

Allison Loucks is the Director of Business Development and Innovation at ESPN, where she oversees ESPN’s Analytics group. Her team has created ESPN metrics including their Total QBR, Basketball Power Index and pass rush win rate. In this conversation, Allison talks about…

- What she does as a director of the analytics group and what a typical day looks like

- How ESPN creates proprietary metrics

- Challenges of using complex metrics in simple ways

- How sports betting has affected her team’s work

- Common misconceptions about ESPN metrics

- What’s on the horizon for the analytics team

- What she looks for when hiring

- Her ESPN career and journalism background

- Meeting one of her sports heroes

Show links

- ESPN Analytics home page

Matt Chang and his team won the 2024 NFL Big Data Bowl, an analytics competition with a $25,000 first prize. In this episode, Matt will discuss…

- His team’s submission, entitled Uncovering Missed Tackle Opportunities

- What the Big Data Bowl is and how he and his team became interested

- The data and question provided by the NFL

- Attacking that question through trial and error

- Creating a metric and its components

- Making the outputs easy to understand

- Ideal next steps with their metric

- Advice for anyone looking to enter contests like the Big Data Bowl

Show Links

- Kaggle notebook for Matt’s team’s winning submission

- Video of Matt’s team’s presentation

- Matt’s advice for future Big Data Bowl contestants

- Big Data Bowl home page

- Big Data Bowl Kaggle home page

- Matt’s transition from hardware to machine learning

- Follow Matt on Twitter and LinkedIn

Ben Zauzmer is an assistant general manager with the New York Mets, and he’s better known publicly for his book Oscarmetrics and his Twitter account @BensOscarMath, where he uses data to project winners of the Academy Awards. With this year’s Oscars ceremony coming on March 10, Ben joins Expected Value to talk about…

- How he got into the Oscars predictions business

- Creating an Oscars model from scratch

- The variables that go into his calculations

- Projecting nominees vs projecting winners

- Explaining probability

- Factoring in betting markets

- Reaction from the film community

- Majoring in applied mathematics at Harvard

- Course and skills recommended to aspiring analysts

- His favorite movie and favorite Best Picture winner

Show links

- @BensOscarMath on Twitter

- Buy Oscarmetrics on Bookshop or Amazon

Bobby Bandelow is the coordinator of advance scouting for the world champion Texas Rangers. During his decade-long career, he’s worked with the Astros, the then-Indians and the Rangers, in roles ranging from video intern to major-league analyst. In this conversation, Bobby talks about…

- Winning the 2023 World Series

- What an advance scout does for an MLB team

- How he presents data to Bruce Bochy and the Rangers staff

- Adapting to MLB rule changes

- Dealing with small sample sizes

- His career path with three MLB teams

- Advice for aspiring sports analysts

Show Links

- Follow Bobby on Twitter

- Bruce Bochy doesn’t miss a thing

- How the Rangers improved their defense

- The Patriotic Pig