I am happy to bring you a special edition of the Cannon Stats podcast talking to a returning guestMichael Caley.

He is here to talk about his new newsletter Expecting goals, which looks to take a break from the week-to-week view and dedicate time to studying a particular question that is underappreciated or is something that we “know” or “assume” to be true but don’t have a good data to say how much or to what degree or when these things from maybe nothing to something.

We have a wide-ranging discussion but the later part talks about the first study that has been published looking at substitute effects.

This is something I think is very interesting and something that on a player basis we discount but aren’t really sure how much (now we will have a better idea and I will absolutley be borrowing this). This also leads to further questions about what teams do in the face of these substitution effects and is that actually optimal.

I have done a little bit of looking at this but like after everytime I talk with Mike, I always feel like there is so much more to try and uncover.

Have a listen, consider subscribing, and let us know what you think.

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