Explaining Brazil

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s US midterms. They secured their largest House majority in nearly 20 years and flipped Senate seats in states that hadn’t voted their way in decades. After two years of tariffs, sanctions against Brazilian officials and canceled visas, what does a Congress run by Donald Trump’s opponents mean for Brazil?

Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, talks with James Green of Brown University and the Brazil Office Alliance, recorded just hours after the results came in. They cover how much say Congress actually has over US foreign policy and why Brazil is likely to stay on the back burner while Democrats focus on the war in Iran, the cost of living and investigations into the Trump administration.

They also discuss whether congressional hearings on Flávio Bolsonaro’s stay in the US could come in the second half of 2027. And they look at where a Democratic Congress may be no friendlier to Brasília, from protectionist instincts on trade to the politics of data centers, and at which lawmakers could become key voices on the bilateral relationship.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to accept his defeat in Brazil’s presidential runoff and left the country within 24 hours of a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports. He landed in Miami with a humanitarian stay permit, raising questions about the roles Argentina and the Trump administration played in his exit.

In this episode, Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green (Brown University and the Brazil Office Alliance) unpack Flávio’s escape and what it means for Bolsonarismo, which still commands roughly 30% of the electorate. They discuss the talk of amnesty in Congress, the challenges Lula faces in holding his coalition together, and the early jockeying for 2030, from Tarcísio de Freitas to Lula’s search for a successor. They also look ahead to the US midterms and how a Democratic House could reshape Washington’s approach to Brazil and the Bolsonaros’ legal standing in the US.

This is the final episode of the partnership between The Brazilian Report and the Brazil Office Alliance.

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Brazil votes on Sunday, and the presidential runoff is now too close to call. A week and a half ago, Flávio Bolsonaro was the clear favorite. Since then, street mobilization and an unprecedented grassroots campaign have helped Lula close the gap.

In our final episode before the vote, Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green (Brown University, Washington Brazil Office) break down the chaotic Band debate, where Flávio dodged every question and went after Lula on style. They ask what a Flávio presidency would mean for Bolsa Família, universities, the environment, and Indigenous rights, given that his budget plans don’t add up. They also look at the risks around the result itself, from hundreds of relocated polling sites in Lula-leaning areas to Meta’s reduced reach for pro-Lula content.

Follow the results live with Gustavo, James, and guest experts on Sunday, October 25, at 5 pm Brasília time (4 pm ET / 9 pm Paris).

Lula finished Brazil's first round almost 2 points behind Flávio Bolsonaro, his weakest first-round result since 1998. Gustavo Ribeiro and historian James Green (Brown University) look at what went wrong for the president and what the October 25 runoff could look like.

They talk through why solid macroeconomic numbers didn't add up to votes, The Brazilian Report's data showing Lula underperformed his 2022 score in 98% of municipalities, the PT's struggles on social media, and where right-wing and abstaining voters may go. They also debate whether a narrow Flávio victory would bring a real mandate, given the Liberal Party's record congressional gains, and what his presidency could mean for pardons, the Constitution, social programs, and relations with Washington and Beijing. The episode closes with the Workers' Party's coming leadership crisis.

Watch the video version on YouTube to see our municipal-level data visualization. For more coverage, go to brazilian.report.

Brazilians vote on Sunday, October 4, and President Lula is asking for a fourth term on the strength of his economic record. Growth averaged 3% a year, unemployment is at a record low, and real wages are rising. His approval still sits barely above 40%.

Luciano Sobral, chief economist and partner at Neo Investimentos, gives Lula's economy a B minus. He explains how double-digit interest rates and record household debt have eaten into the gains, why a windfall in tax revenue failed to stabilize public debt, and what Flávio Bolsonaro's team is actually offering as an alternative. He also tells investors what to expect from markets in the first 100 days under either winner.

Hosted by Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report.

Explaining Brazil returns on Election Day, October 4, with a live broadcast.

Brazil votes on Sunday, and the final week of the campaign has turned on religion. A rumor that a Flávio Bolsonaro government would strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Brazil's patron saint has spread through Catholic circles. The Bolsonaro campaign has reacted furiously, going as far as accusing the National Conference of Brazilian Bishops of spreading fake news. Gustavo Ribeiro and historian James Green (Brown University) explain why the controversy touches both devout Catholics and people who simply value the October 12 holiday, and why the Catholic vote may matter more than analysts assumed.

They also look at President Lula's last-minute moves. These include a provisional decree banning online betting, a third round of his debt relief program, and a pledge to offer weight-loss drugs through the public health system. Gustavo and James discuss whether these measures can reach undecided voters in a race where polls give Lula a three- to five-point lead. They also compare Lula's pre-election spending with Jair Bolsonaro's 2022 payroll loans for welfare recipients.

Join us live on election night, Sunday, October 4, from 5 pm (Brasília time), for English-language coverage of the results.

Explaining Brazil is an independent podcast by The Brazilian Report, funded by subscribers. Subscribe at brazilian.report or support us at buymeacoffee.com/brazilianreport.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied less than two weeks before Brazil's first round, and a flood of contradictory polls is feeding claims that pollsters are rigging the race.

Rafael Nishimura, director of sampling operations at the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, joins Gustavo Ribeiro to explain how Brazilian polls are made, why online surveys and crosstab headlines mislead, how late deciders complicate the picture, and what prediction markets add. He also grades Brazil's pollsters and gives his read on the odds.

For years, Brazil's Supreme Court picked fights with Congress and the presidency. This month it turned on itself. On September 15, the full court sat for more than seven hours to answer a question it has dodged for 130 years, and walked away without an answer.

Gustavo Ribeiro is joined by Brown University historian James Green to unpack what happened inside that session, why it looked more like a schoolyard brawl than the country's highest court, and how a scandal involving a jailed banker and a BRL 130 million contract has swallowed the entire campaign three weeks before Brazilians go to the polls.

They also dig into whether the polls are missing a shy Bolsonaro vote, why one far-right candidate is now accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of being bankrolled from Washington, and what happens if Lula wins by a hair and Trump refuses to recognize the result.

Brazil's Supreme Court is facing what may be the worst crisis in its history. Justice André Mendonça unsealed the Banco Master investigation, exposing messages between the bank's former CEO and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Now two factions of the court are openly at war, less than a month before the first round of the presidential election.

Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green break down how the scandal reached every corner of the political spectrum, why Brazilians are left choosing between impunity and disregard for due process, and whether this fight could tip a race that polls call a toss-up.

Two polls released Monday shook the political establishment. Augusto Cury, of the small Avante party, took third place in both: 11% in Nexus's survey, 7.8% in Atlas Intel's.

The numbers force rivals and analysts to take Cury seriously for the first time since he entered the race. His rise followed two bursts of exposure: the Aug. 23 presidential debate, which Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula, and Romeu Zema all skipped, and last week's Jornal Nacional interview. His asset appears to be a rhetoric that refuses polarization, suggesting the third way's failure to gain traction has been a problem of supply rather than demand.

The Brazilian Report's editor-in-chief, Gustavo Ribeiro, and James Green, the Brown University historian who chairs the Brazil Office Alliance, discussed what Cury's rise means for the race on our latest joint podcast.