For years, Brazil's Supreme Court picked fights with Congress and the presidency. This month it turned on itself. On September 15, the full court sat for more than seven hours to answer a question it has dodged for 130 years, and walked away without an answer.

Gustavo Ribeiro is joined by Brown University historian James Green to unpack what happened inside that session, why it looked more like a schoolyard brawl than the country's highest court, and how a scandal involving a jailed banker and a BRL 130 million contract has swallowed the entire campaign three weeks before Brazilians go to the polls.

They also dig into whether the polls are missing a shy Bolsonaro vote, why one far-right candidate is now accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of being bankrolled from Washington, and what happens if Lula wins by a hair and Trump refuses to recognize the result.

Brazil's Supreme Court is facing what may be the worst crisis in its history. Justice André Mendonça unsealed the Banco Master investigation, exposing messages between the bank's former CEO and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Now two factions of the court are openly at war, less than a month before the first round of the presidential election.

Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green break down how the scandal reached every corner of the political spectrum, why Brazilians are left choosing between impunity and disregard for due process, and whether this fight could tip a race that polls call a toss-up.

Two polls released Monday shook the political establishment. Augusto Cury, of the small Avante party, took third place in both: 11% in Nexus's survey, 7.8% in Atlas Intel's.

The numbers force rivals and analysts to take Cury seriously for the first time since he entered the race. His rise followed two bursts of exposure: the Aug. 23 presidential debate, which Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula, and Romeu Zema all skipped, and last week's Jornal Nacional interview. His asset appears to be a rhetoric that refuses polarization, suggesting the third way's failure to gain traction has been a problem of supply rather than demand.

The Brazilian Report's editor-in-chief, Gustavo Ribeiro, and James Green, the Brown University historian who chairs the Brazil Office Alliance, discussed what Cury's rise means for the race on our latest joint podcast.

Brazil's 2026 campaign is officially underway, and almost all the attention will be on the presidential race. That's a problem, because power in Brazil is increasingly won and lost in Congress — where the budget is controlled and where any president's agenda lives or dies.

Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green are joined by political scientist Beatriz Rey, a researcher at the University of Lisbon, who recently coordinated a Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation policy paper with Sergio Fausto on how to fix the way Congress operates.

Her argument isn't that Congress got too strong. Two decades of incremental change made the legislature a genuine co-policymaker, and that part is healthy.

The trouble is that much of that strength was built through the back door: a Leaders' Council that met in restaurants and living rooms instead of the chamber, hybrid sessions designed for a pandemic that never went away, provisional decrees that expire because nobody bothers to vote, a speaker who can yank any bill out of committee, and informal working groups that now write entire bills with no paper trail and no obligation to reflect the party balance of the House.

The US State Department revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to Washington and said the quiet part out loud: it is retaliation for Brasília withholding agrément from Trump's pick to serve as the ambassador to Brazil. Two months before the first round, that is not a protocol dispute. It is leverage.

Gustavo Ribeiro is joined by James Green, professor at Brown University and chairman of the board of the Washington Brazil Office, to unpack the escalation and what it may be building toward — including the case that isolating Brazil lays the groundwork for questioning the October results.

They also take stock of the rest of a rough week in the neighborhood: relations with Argentina downgraded to chargé d'affaires level after Javier Milei's insults delivered on Brazilian soil, and Lula's unforced error on Paraguay, which reopened the wound of the War of the Triple Alliance. On the same day the visa news broke, Marco Rubio was hosting Paraguay's vice president and signing a nuclear cooperation deal.

Then to the campaign: Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate, why no major party wants to join either ticket, and how the public campaign fund and TV ad rules quietly favor the incumbent.

The US now takes less than 10% of Brazil's exports — the smallest share in decades — and Washington's tariff wall is accelerating a realignment that was already underway.

Gustavo Ribeiro speaks with trade consultant Welber Barral, a former Brazilian foreign trade secretary (2007-11), about what the Section 301 tariffs are doing to exporters on the ground, why more than 30 rounds of talks produced nothing, and why Brasília will not sign the deal Washington handed Argentina. They also discuss Brazil's reciprocity law, the lobbying campaign to suspend US patents, and whether an election year makes retaliation more likely or less likely.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro used his turn at Debating Brazil — an event series in which Brazilian presidential candidates present their vision of the country to foreign ambassadors — to revive discredited claims about electronic voting fraud and to promise close alignment with Washington.Gustavo Ribeiro and James Green examine what the Brazilian press overlooked: a foreign policy doctrine that never rises beyond an outline, an unprompted misstep on Taiwan and an open appeal for American support.Also this week: the Brazil Office Alliance brings 16 social movements to the US Congress to press the case for nonintervention, the forced-labor rationale for new tariffs collapses under scrutiny, and new polling from Poder Data finds a sharp shift in Brazilian sentiment toward China.

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On this episode of Explaining Brazil, Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, talks with James Green, a historian at Brown University, about the fracturing landscape of Brazil's 2026 presidential race.

Much of the conversation turns on Flávio Bolsonaro, whose campaign has been undone largely by its own missteps. Once the front-runner, the senator is now locked in a public feud with his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, that has cost him support among conservative and evangelical women. Ribeiro and Green examine how that rupture — compounded by his appeals for Washington to intervene against looming trade tariffs — has drained his political capital.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, meanwhile, is extending his lead by staying out of the fray. But the episode looks past the horse race to slower shifts underneath it.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated the Comando Vermelho (Red Command, or CV) and the Primeiro Comando da Capital (First Command of the Capital, or PCC) as foreign terrorist organizations. The Brazilian Report's editor-in-chief, Gustavo Ribeiro, and the Brazil Office Alliance's president of the board, James Green, discuss the implications for Brazil.

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Editor-in-chief Gustavo Ribeiro sat down with historian James N. Green to unpack Lula's recent meeting with Donald Trump. While the visit yielded no concrete trade breakthroughs, it has been cast as a diplomatic victory, bolstering Lula's domestic standing against far-right rivals. The discussion also addresses political issues at home: the rejection of a Supreme Court nominee and the steady drift of legislative power toward a more conservative Congress.

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