F-World: The Fragility Podcast

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.

This is the second episode in a three-part series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility.

We start by talking about why conflict prevention should constantly be on the minds of political actors, civil society, the private sector, and international organizations. Alexandre paints a vivid picture of how the ebb and flow of crises in the absence of prevention can get a country trapped in a downward spiral of conflict and how countries should aim to surf above the narrow corridor between peace and conflict. We then discuss how communication about the risk of conflict can interact with expectations about the trajectory of a country and the delicate balance between raising an alarm without degenerating into alarmism; and how to learn what works in prevention by looking at countries that come close to conflict but manage to avoid it.

Our conversation then moves on to dealing with “wild cards” in prevention – from extremist groups to external actors – and how we can engage in prevention when key actors have an interest in maintaining or starting a conflict. We also talk about the need to capitalize on opportune moments to help a country get on the pathway to peace and whether there are red lines that international organizations should cross in order to prevent conflict. Further, we discuss the role of the private sector in preventing conflict and the conditions in which it should play a role. Alexandre makes it clear that while the private sector is an important actor, it is no panacea and warns us not to force the private sector into situations where it can only succeed by being a bad actor.

As a preview to our next episode with Alexandre on the geopolitics of fragility, we wrap up this conversation by talking about prevention in an interconnected world: how the global stage has changed since the release of the report in 2018, what should motivate citizens in Western countries to care about prevention, and the shifting roles and interests of China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre deliver a masterclass in prevention!

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Dr. Alexandre Marc

Website: https://www.alexandremarc.org

Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1

International Institute for Strategic Studies: https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marc

Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/

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Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

Sarah Cliffe is the director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC). Prior to that, she held several leadership positions at the World Bank and United Nations. Sarah pioneered the work on fragile and conflict-affected states at the World Bank, serving also as the Special Representative for the 2011 World Development Report on Conflict, Security, and Development. At the UN, she spearheaded efforts to help countries build civilian capacities to strengthen peacebuilding and post-conflict transitions. Sarah’s vast experience ranges from countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Rwanda, South Africa, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste. She began her career in the United Kingdom and has degrees from Cambridge University and Columbia University.

This episode is full of big questions from the very beginning. To start, we speak to Sarah about her formative years, and how her early impressions of fragility and conflict were actually shaped by her upbringing in a mining town in Wales at a time of social upheaval in the United Kingdom. She also shares her perspectives on what communities at risk in the UK, South Africa, and Rwanda had in common – and why some were more resilient. Our conversation then turns more conceptual, as we take a look at how the insights of her work at the World Bank on conflict, security, and development can help us understand today’s global fragility trends.

We then explore in depth the big challenges on the world stage ahead of the UN’s General Assembly meetings in September. How are the growing tensions between the US, Russia, and China affecting global governance, especially the UN? How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine divided the international community and what are the perspectives of developing countries? What factors have influenced responses to refugees from Ukraine and beyond? How is the future of multilateralism intertwined with domestic politics? And are there any silver linings to geopolitical fragmentation and the new Cold War between the US and China?

We conclude on a high note, talking about reasons to be hopeful – listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Dr. Abdirahman Duale Beileh is a Somali economist, professor, politician, philanthropist, poet, and well acclaimed song writer. In August 2022, Dr. Beileh finished his term as Somalia’s Minister of Finance, having served for the past five years. Previously, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation from 2014 to 2015. Dr. Beileh has been a driving force behind the reestablishment of the Somali state, and the country’s return to the international scene.

We start our conversation with memories from Dr. Beileh’s childhood home outside the city of Hargeisa. An opportunity to study and work abroad in the United Arab Emirates and the United States drove him to question the situation in his native Somalia, eventually leading him to pursue a 30-year career at the African Development Bank (AfDB). We then discuss Somalia’s transition from a failed state to one where elections and a peaceful transition of power recently took place. We explore what went right and the remaining challenges for the future. Dr. Beileh shares his experience of working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other partners on issues such as debt relief and the process of building from scratch an international coalition to support Somalia. He passionately talks about the challenges of instilling a “tax-payer mentality” in a country where most people only experience of taxation as extortion by the violent extremist group Al-Shabaab, as well as the urgent need to finance the security sector. He further shares his experience of collaborating with the finance ministers of Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS) and outlines his approach to building trust with citizens, federal member state governments, and international partners. And his toolkit is wide-ranging, from transparent communication to music and poetry. Finally, Dr. Beileh sets out a compelling 10-year vision for a Somalia: a country that is self-sufficient in food production, where the link between floods and famine is broken through good governance, and where young people can earn a quality education and pursue their dreams.

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.

This is the first episode in a series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility.

We start by talking about Alexandre’s upbringing and how traveling with his parents – an adventure worthy of an Indiana Jones movie - led him to discover the wonders of different cultures. Experiences such as staying in an archeological mission in Egypt, crossing Afghanistan and Iran by car, and a road trip from Paris to Jordan sparked Alexandre’s interest in how different cultures coexist and led him to try to understand conflict. We then talk about to the relationship between the price of bananas and witchcraft in Cameroon – and we sure had questions about it!

Alexandre then shares with us how caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand the origins and dynamics of conflict, the need to differentiate between conflict and violent conflict, and how the rise in what he calls “conflicts of fragility” led to the Pathways for Peace report. The conversation also explores how actors, institutions, and structural factors can push a country towards peace or conflict, why peace is desirable, the dangers of horizontal inequality, and the importance of dignity.

And there’s so much more! Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre share many more insights into fragility, conflict, and peace.

Jonathan Marley is a Policy Analyst in Crises and Fragility at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where he leads the States of Fragility team and their work. Jonathan is a former soldier and academic - he served in the Irish military, was deployed as a peacekeeper, and taught military officers at the Irish Defense Forces Military College. We kick off this episode talking about Jonathan’s career in the military, his life as a peacekeeper in Kosovo at a time of experimentation around ideas in civil-military cooperation, and how he and his fellow soldiers got to try them out in real time. Jonathan then shares with us what it’s like to be a peacekeeper in the Balkans and, spoiler alert, no two days were the same. However, there were some fundamental constants: building relationships with people and building trust.

Then the conversation moves on to the differences between peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and development. Jonathan shares his observations about the missing operational middle in development planning, and what can be learned from how the military makes and implements its plans. We also touched on how the war in Ukraine making your morning coffee more expensive is an example of the need for systems thinking and multidimensional analysis. The conversation also explores what should development professionals know about diplomacy, whether we can think about a fragility continuum, and what’s going on with the multiple understandings of fragility among the humanitarian-development-peace actors.

And there’s still more! Jonathan’s life experience allowed for a conversation rich in topics and deep in insights. Listen to the episode to hear Jonathan share many more insights into fragility and resilience. The episode was recorded on March 18th, 2022.

Katherine Marshall is professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and one of the world's foremost experts on the nexus between faith, ethics, and development. In her 35 years with the World Bank, Katherine was a pioneer for women in international development and led the Bank's work in some of the world's most fragile and poor nations. She was also one of the first international development experts to work on the critical importance of religion in global development. In the first part of our conversation, we talk about Katherine’s experience as a woman as she joined the World Bank in 1971, what was then seen as new ideas about women as actors in development, the slowly dawning awareness of the importance of girls’ education, and the need to defend both the roles of women within the institution and the roles of women in development. Katherine then shares with us how she became fascinated by the topic of religion at a time development professionals rarely spoke about or thought much about it. She calls it an adventure with a large number of large blind spots. It was fascinating because it took the work and the institution of the World Bank itself into a new area of ethics, reaching into more fundamental questions about what development is and how different economic models affect people's lives. We also talk about how development and religious organizations relate to different established orthodoxies. One of the ironies Katherine mentions is the religious sounding language used to describe many aspects of the work of development institutions - people go on missions and they follow a doctrine that relies on unseen forces and invisible hands. Listen to the episode to hear Katherine discuss many more fascinating connections between religion and development. The episode was recorded on April 9th, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.

Steen Sonne Andersen is currently the Ambassador of Denmark to Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Benin. He is based in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. An economist by training, Steen began his career working on local governance in Denmark’s poorer regions. He then worked with international development agencies in India, Nepal, Bhutan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tanzania focusing primarily on the education sector. In the start of our conversation, Steen talks about the early days of his professional journey, when a series of urban development projects funded by the European Union in Denmark sparked his curiosity in understanding community resilience and state modernization. We then talk about the process of state building in the Sahel: Steen paints a vivid picture of fragility and conflict drivers in the region, from water scarcity and rapid population growth, to enduring poverty and violent extremism. He also outlines Denmark’s aid priorities to prevent further conflict and help stabilize the Sahel through support for effective water management infrastructure and security and justice reform. Throughout the conversation, we talk about social protection and the meaning of solidarity in the Sahel, how values shape community resilience, the social contract in post-colonial states, and the role of education in helping women and girls realize their potential. The episode was recorded on May 23rd, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.

Koen Davidse is the World Bank Group’s Executive Director from the Netherlands since 2018. He represents a group of countries that also includes Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Ukraine. Previously, he served as the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Mali and held senior positions in the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the beginning of our conversation, Koen shares his reasons for choosing a career in diplomacy and development, with stints in India, Sudan, Mali, and also at the World Bank and UN. We then talk about why security sector reform (SSR) that builds effective but also affordable militaries, police, and justice institutions is essential to make progress on economic development in fragile states. Next, we delve deeper into his work in Sudan and Mali. We discuss the challenges of being an honest broker in the implementation of the peace agreement leading to South Sudan’s independence in 2011 and what it’s like to lead a peacekeeping mission aiming to bring stability in Mali. Throughout the episode, Koen shares his insights about why we need peace entrepreneurs to make lasting change, what it takes to achieve better coordination between peace, development, and humanitarian actors, and how to put vulnerable people at the center of global efforts to help fragile states. This episode was recorded on June 18, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.

Dr. Shanta Devarajan is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches development economics. Previously, Shanta worked for nearly three decades at the World Bank, where he was the Senior Director for Development Economics (DEC) and served as acting Chief Economist. This episode starts with Shanta’s account of his early work on indicators to measure state fragility at the World Bank, and how his understanding of fragility has evolved over time. We then explore how country rankings are linked to aid allocations, and why venture capital is a better model to help countries escape the fragility trap than current practices. We also discuss how international financial institutions navigate the relationship with governments. Reflecting on his work prior to the Arab Spring, Shanta argues that development financing institutions should use knowledge and data to build greater trust with citizens – their ultimate clients. We then get more technical and discuss how taxation in oil-rich countries like South Sudan can promote solidarity, how conflict can shape government decisions on infrastructure development, and the role of macroeconomic policy in fragile states. This episode was recorded on April 14, 2021.

Sara Noshadi is an expert on the reconstruction of cultural heritage and creative economies in war-torn countries. She has developed and led national programs promoting unity and reconciliation through culture in Iraq after the fall of the Islamic State (2017), as well as in Afghanistan. Originally from Iran, Sara was trained as an anthropologist at the University of Tehran and worked at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris. In this episode, Sara tells the story of how a trip to post-civil war Tajikistan led her to focus on culture as a force for solidarity and peace. We discuss why it is so difficult to work on this agenda in fragile and conflict-affected states, where typical economic development programs fail to take into account the complex role of culture in shaping project outcomes. Sara also shares her views on how using culture as a lens can help make urban planning or mining projects more effective, and why conflict-affected states would benefit from 30 year-long national cultural programs disconnected from donor funding cycles. Lastly, we talk about how cultural programming can help children and youth imagine a different future for themselves and new shared fictions for their countries. The episode was recorded on May 19, 2021.