The climate of the stratosphere is known to be subject to long-term changes induced
by anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) as well as by emissions
of ozone depleting substances (primarily chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs). Enhanced
concentrations of CFCs have led to strong ozone depletion over the last decades. Thanks
to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments, the stratospheric halogen
loading is expected to retreat again in the future. Emissions of GHGs, on the
other hand, are not yet controlled sufficiently, and concentrations of GHGs are projected
to increase further in the future. The effects of enhanced GHG concentrations
on the stratosphere include decreasing temperatures, as well as changes in the dynamical
balances and interactions with the troposphere, and thus changes in the large-scale
circulation. In particular, the stratospheric meridional circulation is projected to be
subject to changes. These GHG-induced changes will also affect stratospheric ozone
chemistry and transport of ozone. Therefore, the expected recovery of ozone due to decreasing
CFC concentrations will coincide with alterations of the ozone layer by climate
change.
This study aims to diagnose and explain long-term changes in the stratospheric
meridional circulation using the chemistry-climate model E39CA. The dynamical causes
for these changes are identified, and the impact of changes in the meridional circulation
on the future development of ozone is quantified.
In a changing climate, the meridional circulation is found to strengthen in the tropical
lower stratosphere. In particular, tropical upwelling in the lowermost stratosphere
intensifies at a rate of about 3% per decade over the analysed period of 1960 to 2049.
This enhanced upwelling is balanced by downwelling in the subtropics at latitudes
around 20-40°N/S. The increase in tropical upwelling can be explained by stronger local
forcing by large scale waves. It is shown that enhanced tropical upwelling is driven
by processes induced by increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Higher
tropical SSTs cause both a) a strengthening of the subtropical jets and b) modifications
of deep convection, leading to changes in the strength and location of latent heat release.
While the former (a) can modify wave propagation and dissipation, the latter (b)
affects tropical wave generation. Evidence is presented that the dominating mechanism
leading to enhanced vertical wave propagation into the lower stratosphere is an upward
shift of the easterly shear zone due to the strengthening and upward and equatorward
shifts of the subtropical jets.
In addition to the increase in tropical upwelling caused by climate change, the
changes in CFC concentrations also affect the dynamical forcing of the meridional circulation.
The CFC-induced depletion of ozone in the past has led to changes in the
background wind field in the southern hemisphere in summer, which cause enhanced
wave propagation into the middle stratosphere and thus a strengthening of the meridional
circulation. This effect is reversed in the future, when CFC concentrations decline.
The future development of ozone is found to be dominated by changes in local
chemistry in most regions of the stratosphere. Both decreasing CFC concentrations and
stratospheric cooling due to enhanced GHG concentrations lead to less efficient ozone
destruction, and thus increasing ozone concentrations. However, changes in transport
of ozone due to the strengthening of the meridional circulation play an important role in
the tropical lower stratosphere, where ozone concentrations decrease due to more export
of ozone. Furthermore, it is found that the chemically induced positive ozone trend
in southern high latitudes in the future is counteracted by decreased ozone transport
from middle to high latitudes. This decrease in transport is due to the weakening of
the meridional circulation in the southern hemisphere in summer, which, in