Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz

Ian Hartitz is joined by Matthew Coller of Purple Insider, author of "Football Is a Numbers Game", to work through the fantasy questions that actually decide your draft in Minnesota. 

Matthew was at every single practice of the quarterback competition and charted every pass, so this is what he saw with his own eyes rather than what the box score says. 

Some of what came out of it: 

Kyler Murray is QB1, and it was a real competition that was not close. The total rep count over about nine hard practices came out 50/50, which is not what a locked-in starter's camp looks like, but Murray played par golf across those nine holes and J.J. McCarthy was five over. Murray moves through his progressions faster and the accuracy gap is the thing that decided it. 

On Justin Jefferson: the camp looks much more like 2022 through 2024 than last season. Ian's numbers have Murray at a 9% better catchable ball rate to receivers than what Jefferson dealt with last year, over the first five weeks with screens removed. And the two plays Matthew keeps coming back to are a fourth-down heave that he calls a bad throw, which Jefferson goes and wins anyway, and a deep corner where the ball was gone before Jefferson had even broken. 

On the middle of the field: there are always going to be realities to Murray's size. But when he sees it and throws on time he was something like 30 for 41 in the intermediate middle in 2024. It just was not a high percentage of his passes, and Kevin O'Connell's job is building the throwing lanes for it. 

Jordan Addison is in a prove-it year with an extension in front of him, off a season with more drops than he has ever had. Jauan Jennings might be the second best receiver Murray has ever played with, and he is the WR3 here. 

Plus the backfield, where Matthew clears up a quote of his that went around the fantasy world in a form he did not say, the rookie Demond Claiborne, and a bold call to finish. 

Follow Matthew at @MatthewColler, read him at Purple Insider, and pick up "Football Is a Numbers Game". 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje

Timestamps:

0:00 Talking Vikings with Matthew Coller

1:22 Was it ever really a quarterback competition?

5:19 How Matthew actually scored it

10:54 Is the Kyler and Jettas connection back?

14:17 Can Kyler work the middle of the field?

17:51 Jordan Addison's prove-it year

21:21 Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson and the target math

27:05 The Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones committee

30:36 What to make of Demond Claiborne

33:29 Matthew's bold call

35:56 Wrapping up

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Ian Hartitz is joined by Eli Berkovits, who covers the Packers for 247 Sports and Packer Report and co-hosts the Pack-A-Day Podcast, to work through the fantasy questions that actually decide your draft in Green Bay. 

Boots on the ground beats a depth chart. Eli has been at camp, so this is what he has seen with his own eyes rather than what the box score says. 

Some of what came out of it: 

MarShawn Lloyd looks explosive and is making plays as a receiver, and with Josh Jacobs out he is the running back right now. He played 11 snaps in the one preseason game and turned them into four targets and six rush attempts, and he is still basically free at the end of Yahoo and ESPN drafts. 

When Jacobs is back it stays his show, especially at the goal line, but Eli does not rule out something closer to a committee than the last two years. LaFleur has the history for it, going back to Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry in Tennessee and then Jones, Williams and Dillon in Green Bay. 

On the receivers: Doubs and Wicks leaving has cleared the room out. When Eli was at camp, Matthew Golden looked like Jordan Love's first read on roughly 70% of plays. Watson is still his top target, Golden his next, then Reed. And the Jayden Reed two-tight-end dream has a hard number attached to it: Fantasy Points has him at one career target in those looks. 

On the offense: LaFleur has emphasized getting to the line faster, and he told NFL Network that Love is the best pre-snap processor at calling out protections he has been around, Rodgers included. 

And Tucker Kraft, back from the knee, passed the eye test. Eli calls him "a legitimate psychopath, in the best way possible", has him TE4 for 2026 behind Bowers, McBride and Loveland, and says he is the one Packer he wants in his drafts this year. 

Plus a bold call to finish that has nothing to do with Green Bay. 

Follow Eli at @BookOfEli_NFL, read him at 247 Sports and Packer Report, and listen to the Pack-A-Day Podcast. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje

Timestamps:

0:00 Talking Packers with Eli Berkovits

1:46 Has MarShawn Lloyd looked like the real deal?

3:59 Could LaFleur go back to a committee?

7:09 Will Jayden Reed finally play in two tight end sets?

8:49 Has the receiver room consolidated?

15:12 More pace and more passing this season?

20:08 Tucker Kraft after the knee

23:09 Eli's bold call

24:31 Wrapping up

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Ian Hartitz breaks down exactly how to attack a fantasy football draft from a late first round position, picks 1.09 through 1.12, then runs three full mock drafts from those spots to show what the finished rosters actually look like. 

Using Yahoo ADP for the first five rounds in a full PPR league with two RBs and three WRs, the shape of the board at the turn is the whole story. Ian calls it the Great Wall of RBs: a few receivers go inside the first seven or eight picks, and then Cook, Jeanty, Achane, Walker and Henry come off the board in a run, with only a couple of receivers creeping into that range. 

That is why he is happy to double-tap running back from these spots. Could Jefferson and Lamb boom and make it look silly? Sure. But one is not guaranteed a better quarterback situation than the one that made him a WR3 last season, and the other has a non-zero chance of being the second most productive receiver in his own offense. Give him James Cook, Saquon Barkley or Chase Brown instead. 

Also covered: why Brock Bowers is a round 2 target rather than a pick at this turn, where Colston Loveland fits in the early part of round 4, the receiver values in rounds 3 and 4, and when a mid-round quarterback makes sense. 

Then the three mocks: 1.09, the elite tight end build. James Cook and Chase Brown to open, Malik Nabers in round 3, then Colston Loveland at pick 40, with Kyler Murray waiting all the way until 136. 

1.11, the hero RB build. Jonathan Taylor alone at running back early, then Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Evans stacked up, with Rico Dowdle money-balling the RB2 spot and Isaiah Likely at tight end late. 

1.12, the RB-RB build. Chase Brown and Saquon Barkley at the turn, three receivers behind them, and a more balanced middle-round approach at quarterback and tight end with Trevor Lawrence and Isaiah Likely. All three finished teams are shown side by side at the end. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje

Timestamps:

0:00 The setup: drafting from 1.09 to 1.12

0:28 The draft board, Yahoo ADP rounds 1 to 5

0:46 The Great Wall of RBs

1:13 Why I'm off the receivers at the turn

2:40 Where Brock Bowers fits

4:26 Rounds 1 and 2: double-tap running back

5:02 Rounds 3 and 4: receivers, or Loveland

5:39 Rounds 5 and 6, and the moral of the story

7:39 If and then: where you go next

11:11 Mock draft 1, from the 1.09

21:53 Mock draft 2, from the 1.11

31:42 Mock draft 3, from the 1.12

39:50 All three teams compared

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Ian Hartitz breaks down five players going noticeably EARLIER in home leagues on ESPN and Yahoo than they are in high-stakes formats like NFFC and FFPC, and why that gap can be a red flag on a player's 2026 fantasy upside. 

There is a lot more money flying around in NFFC and FFPC than in ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Maybe that means we should follow it, maybe it does not. That is the question this video works through, one player at a time. And as Ian says up top: a player being on this list does not mean you cannot be in on him this year. It is still early August.

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje

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Timestamps:

0:00 The setup: home league ADP vs high-stakes ADP

0:35 Jaxson Dart, Giants QB

8:19 Davante Adams, Rams WR

14:04 Josh Jacobs, Packers RB

19:34 Alvin Kamara, Saints RB

24:35 Sam LaPorta, Lions TE

31:06 Wrapping up

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Ian Hartitz is joined by John Shipley, who has spent eight seasons on the Jacksonville beat, to work through the biggest fantasy questions facing the league's sixth-ranked scoring offense from last season. 

Boots on the ground beats a depth chart. John has been at every practice, so this is training camp intel on the questions that actually decide your draft: who is even the RB1 here, whether last year's No. 2 overall pick is going to play enough offense to matter, and which receiver in a genuinely loaded room has earned Trevor Lawrence's trust. 

Some of what came out of it: 

The running back committee may not have an RB1 at all. At the team scrimmage Bhayshul Tuten worked between the 20s, Chris Rodriguez handled short yardage and LeQuint Allen was out there on basically every third down. Rodriguez is fully healthy again and John is not writing off his role. 

On Travis Hunter, the raw camp reps tell the story. ESPN's Mike DiRocco has tracked him at around 90 11-on-11 reps at cornerback against 50-something at receiver. He is still going to play real offense, and this year he is being used outside and down the field rather than parked in the slot on screens. 

Parker Washington has been the top connection of camp, and John thinks his 2026 can beat any season Christian Kirk gave this offense, Kirk's best being 84-1108-8 back in 2022. 

Plus Brian Thomas Jr.'s much better camp, a real uptick in multi tight end looks with Nate Boerkircher freeing up Brenton Strange, and a bold call to finish. 

Follow John at @_John_Shipley and read his work at Jaguars on SI. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje

Timestamps:

0:00 Talking Jaguars with John Shipley

0:52 Is there an RB1? Tuten, Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen

5:07 How much will Travis Hunter actually play on offense?

8:46 Parker Washington and the Trevor Lawrence connection

11:59 Has Brian Thomas Jr. turned it around?

15:46 Multi tight end sets, Strange and Boerkircher

17:47 Year two of Lawrence and Liam Coen

20:28 John's bold call

21:23 Wrapping up

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Ian Hartitz breaks down six players going far cheaper in traditional home leagues on ESPN and Yahoo than they are in high-stakes formats like FFPC and NFFC. Some of these gaps are enormous, and a couple of them have changed his own opinion just from watching where the money is going Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. 

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Timestamps:

0:00 The setup: Pros vs Joes, and why the gap matters in August

0:46 Christian Watson, Packers

6:59 Parker Washington, Jaguars

13:22 Quentin Johnston, Chargers

19:55 Jayden Higgins, Texans

22:35 RJ Harvey, Broncos

31:27 Kenny Gainwell, Buccaneers

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Ian Hartitz breaks down five running backs going outside the top nine rounds on Yahoo, round 10 or later, that he is actively drafting in 2026. For each one he makes the case, lays out the real concern, and gives his verdict at that price. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/subscribe/pricing/

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Timestamps:

0:00 The setup: sleepers going round 10 or later

0:11 Jonathon Brooks, Panthers

4:44 Jordan Mason, Vikings

10:59 Tank Bigsby, Eagles

16:04 Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jaguars

20:13 Keaton Mitchell, Chargers

24:15 All five, recapped

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Ian Hartitz goes through five wide receivers carrying a top-24 ADP on ESPN who finished WR24 or worse in PPR points per game last season, and are tied to an offense Vegas has ranked 16th or worse for 2026. That combination is not a great one, so Ian builds the glass half full and glass half empty case for each, then gives an honest bust factor out of 10, one being not a bust at all and ten being a complete bust. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/subscribe/pricing/ 

Check out FantasyBoss today. Your league never felt so alive. Run every format with deep commissioner tools, weekly recaps, taunt videos, side pools, and more. Start your league free with FantasyBoss. Start your league free at fantasyboss.com/rotowire.

Timestamps:

0:00 The setup: who qualifies as a bust candidate

0:41 Justin Jefferson

4:47 Tetairoa McMillan

9:48 Emeka Egbuka

16:42 Jaylen Waddle

22:53 Terry McLaurin

29:56 Every bust factor, recapped

It's a great day to be great.

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It is August, which means it is time to talk ourselves out of every player we are about to draft. Ian Hartitz goes one by one through all 12 first round picks, builds the glass half empty case against each of them, and then gives an honest 1 to 10 rating on how much that risk actually scares him. Some of these are easy to dismiss. Ja'Marr Chase only breaks if Joe Burrow gets hurt again, and every receiver has that problem. Others are real. The bottom of the round is where it gets ugly, because Justin Jefferson and De'Von Achane are both tied to offenses nobody wants to bet on, and there are only 14 instances of a running back posting top-12 PPR numbers on a bottom-10 scoring offense over the entire last decade. 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/subscribe/pricing/

Check out FantasyBoss today. Your league never felt so alive. Run every format with deep commissioner tools, weekly recaps, taunt videos, side pools, and more. Start your league free with FantasyBoss. Start your league free at fantasyboss.com/rotowire.

Timestamps:

0:00 The premise: talking ourselves out of the first round

0:39 1.01 Jahmyr Gibbs (1/10)

3:45 1.02 Bijan Robinson (2/10)

6:56 1.03 Ja'Marr Chase (1/10)

8:25 1.04 Puka Nacua (2/10)

12:27 1.05 Christian McCaffrey (4/10)

16:15 1.06 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3/10)

19:29 1.07 Jonathan Taylor (6/10)

25:45 1.08 Amon-Ra St. Brown (3/10)

28:02 1.09 CeeDee Lamb (5/10)

30:53 1.10 Justin Jefferson (7/10)

35:56 1.11 James Cook (4/10)

38:38 1.12 De'Von Achane (8/10)

41:33 Every concern level, recapped

It's a great day to be great

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Ian Hartitz lays out his favorite way to attack 2026 fantasy football drafts, then runs two full mock drafts to prove it works. The build is simple: take a stud running back in Round 1, take Brock Bowers in Round 2, then let the loaded wide receiver tier come to you. 

The case for a premium tight end pick is the part most people miss. Over the last decade, tight end has been far and away the best position at overcoming a bad offensive environment. Top-12 fantasy finishers who came from bottom-10 scoring offenses: 24 tight ends (20%), 14 running backs (11.7%), 12 wide receivers (10%), and just 4 quarterbacks (3.3%). That is why a shaky Raiders offense does not scare Ian off Bowers, and why the depth at quarterback this year makes spending up at tight end so much easier to stomach. 

From there it is rounds 3 through 6 hammering the wide receiver tier, rounds 7 through 10 building the RB2 room in the aggregate, and round 11 onward grabbing the quarterback everyone else reached for. 

Then two mocks, every pick explained. 

MOCK DRAFT 1 QB Brock Purdy | RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Tony Pollard | WR Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle | TE Brock Bowers | FLEX Parker Washington Bench: Rachaad White, Blake Corum, Rashid Shaheed, Jared Goff, Tank Bigsby, Isiah Pacheco, Jaydon Blue 

MOCK DRAFT 2 QB Jared Goff | RB Christian McCaffrey, Javonte Williams | WR Jaylen Waddle, Davante Adams, Christian Watson | TE Brock Bowers | FLEX Parker Washington Bench: Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason, Josh Downs, Kyler Murray, Tank Bigsby, Mike Washington, Kaelon Black 

Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/subscribe/pricing/

Timestamps:

0:00 The plan

0:25 Round 1: lock a stud RB

0:59 Round 2: Brock Bowers

3:39 Why tight end beats a bad offense

5:29 Rounds 3-6: feast on the WR tier

7:29 Rounds 7-10: build the RB2 room

12:01 Round 11+: the year of late-round QB

13:15 The rules, recapped

14:10 Mock draft 1

26:34 Mock draft 2

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