Today’s episode of the podcast covers some NFL Leaderboards, dives into a discussion about Early Declare and Super Senior statuses, and then finishes with the Week 11 Discussion. As usual, I did not write up the NFL Notes, but I do have at least some brief observations about Early Declare and Super Senior status by position group.
This is not meant to be a definitive study, more an observation about where the league is and recent trends.
After that, as always, the Week 11 Preview which looks forward to some crucial 2026 QB match-ups.
Early Declares and Super Seniors by Position
For this an analysis, an Early Declare is anyone who leaves college the minimum 3 years after high school. A Super Senior is anyone who leaves college 5+ years after high school.
To be clear, I don’t think the analysis is re-inventing the wheel in any way, shape, or form and much of this is probably self-evident to at least some people, but I would wager even some of those people might be shocked by the degree in some of these points.
* This should surprise no one, but the QB position is the only position — particularly at the top — where being a Super Senior is not a detriment particularly relative to being an early declare in recent memory. Several elite QBs (Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix) are Super Seniors, and QB is the only position where choosing between the top three Early Declares and top three Super Seniors would be a debate; the top 3 Early Declares on KTC right now are Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, and Patrick Mahomes, so they still may have the edge here, but compare that to WR where the KTC rankings would make a similar comparison Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Reed, and Terry McLaurin v Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Justin Jefferson.
* RB is the position where the TOP END is the most dominated by Early Declares. The top 6 RBs and 13 of the top 14 RBs are Early Declares (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, Bucky Irving, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams). That said, the gap between simply being a senior and a super senior, at least in the moment, seems less extreme at RB compared to WR. James Cook is the other RB in the Top 14, and as a 4th Year player, he creates the biggest divide between Senior and Super Senior, but players like Chase Brown, Jaylen Warren, and before his injury Cam Skattebo are more highly valuable to their positions relative to the Seniors and compared to the WR position.
* At WR, within the top 24, there is a 2/3 to 1/3 preference towards the Early Declares, with 8 Early Declare WRs in the top 12 and 16 Early Declare WRs in the top 24. Beyond that though, the most unique aspect of WRs in this analysis is the complete lack of players achieving significant success after becoming Super Seniors. Ricky Pearsall and Jayden Reed have had some relative success aside from injuries, but injuries are a relevant reality in the sport, and if they do not turn their careers around soon, the biggest 5th Year WR hit since Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel — both of whom are ~30 YO now — is probably Rashid Shaheed? Or perhaps still Jayden Reed even with the injuries. Since the podcast, Deebo has fallen out of the Top 50 and Shaheed has risen into the top 50, but essentially these 5 WRs are the 5 that rest near or above the fringe of WR50. That is a very small number of relevant players throughout the entire position.
* As one additional note, among the 8 WRs who have Senior (not super) status in the Top 24 on KTC, four of these eight WRs (Egbuka, Odunze, DeVonta, Olave) had an excellent season with high draft status prior to returning for their four season. Two more of these WRs (Ladd & Puka) were heavily impacted by injuries throughout their collegiate careers. This is why, in my eyes, even the bar for a fourth year player at the WR position should be very high or have significant excuse as to why they were not able to become more successful earlier in their careers. My belief is that this is because WR is so skills driven that early skills development is still underrated in the scouting process.
This is admittedly not the most optimistic analysis, and I did not spin it directly like this on the podcast, but there is a reason that I bring all these items up on a Show/Sub that slants to the NFL Draft:
There’s some evidence that being an Early Declare for Dante Moore would be more enticing for teams to the extent that it might help him stay in the First Round relative to maybe a similar QB with a similar season who was a 4th Year player, but the fact that so many of those QBs being drafted as Early Declares are on the bottom of the top 20-28 QBs might suggest that for Dante Moore, if he wants to be a very good QB, staying at Oregon might be the most logical decision. And for Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, while at other positions returning for a 5th Year would be a detriment, there’s not necessarily anything obvious in the numbers right now — particularly if your goal is to be a very good QB — that suggests going back for a 5th Year is a bad idea.
At RB, our top two don’t need discussed here, but particularly as Jonah Coleman may re-enter the RB2 conversation with the injury to Justice Haynes, this is just another sign that Coleman best abilities might lie in FLOOR and not CEILING.
And at WR, luckily our top three are fine here — it is part of what makes them the top 3. Jordyn Tyson is the only senior, but he slides nicely into that category that also fits Egbuka, DeVonta, Odunze, and Olave. The concern is more as we get into the stages where Chris Bell, Germie Bernard, and even Denzel Boston are becoming first round picks that people are excited about. Boston scores okay compared to those players, but is a clear step down. Bell and Bernard are not particularly close. That doesn’t mean they can’t be very good WRs, but unless there is more well-rounded development, they are the two players right now where they seem like they may slip into my own 1st Round, but in most drafts I would not want to rank them with a Top 12 grade.
Make sure to check out the Fantasy for Real podcast where I go over these games in preparation for Week 11.
After a few weeks where the match-ups for the 2026 QBs were not quite as exciting, this weekend showcases many of our top QBs matched up in important games. The biggest match-up and Game of the Week features LSU & Garrett Nussmeier taking on Alabama & Ty Simpson, with Nussmeier in particular needing to take advantage of the limited opportunities he has left before the 2026 NFL Draft. Aside from this top game, both Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza find themselves against tricky defenses in road environments. This is another big opportunity week for the 2026 QB Class with plenty of other big games to look through as well.
Friday Night Lights
Northwestern @ USC at 9:00 PM on FOX
Key Players: Griffin Wilde, WR, Northwestern (2026) ; Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (2026) ; Makai Lemon, WR, USC (2026) ; Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, USC (2026)
Not too much action late Friday night, but USC does have one of the most intriguing teams for the 2026 NFL Draft in particular. While the injury to Waymond Jordan and playing through injuries for Ja’Kobi Lane has limited some of the intrigue, this team still features two potential Day 2 or higher WRs including a top 3 WR in Makai Lemon. QB Jayden Maiava flirted with the First Round QB conversation, but right now seems to be firmly on the outside looking in after poor performances the last two weeks. This game is unlikely to get him back in the conversation, but it can get him on the right track for at least Day 2 moving forward. For Northwestern, Griffin Wilde remains an intriguing, productive player within College Football. A third year player in his first year in the Big Ten, Wilde is very likely the most important member of the Northwestern offense.
Week 11 College Football GAMEDAY Previews
GAME OF THE WEEK
LSU @ Alabama at 7:30 PM on ABC
Key Players: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (2026) ; Harlem Berry, RB, LSU (2028) ; Caden Durham, RB, LSU (2027) ; Aaron Anderson, WR, LSU (2026) ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU (2027) ; Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (2026) ; Jamarion Miller, RB, Alabama (2026) ; Daniel Hill, RB, Alabama (2027) ; Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama (2027) ; Lotzeir Brooks, WR, Alabama (2028) ; Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama (2026) ; Isaiah Horton, WR, Alabama (2026)
Very likely the “Game of the Week” this week pits QBs Garrett Nussmeier and Ty Simpson against each other, each with the ability to raise their stock in the upcoming NFL Draft. For Nussmeier, a player without eligibility and a nearly nonexistent path to the CFB Playoff, this will be one of the last opportunities to make an impression. If Simpson wishes to enter the 2026 NFL Draft, that might be true for him as well, though Simpson will have more post-season opportunities most likely. Simpson has showcased excellent ability to play the QB position, but as someone with very few starts, Simpson is still an incomplete picture.
These teams are also quite similar in how they have matched-up on Offense this year, with the exception of Simpson being able to execute in the difficult situations that Nussmeier has struggled in. But on the ground, both teams have struggled quite a bit this season. LSU has seemingly found something in RB Harlem Berry adding a bit more consistency on the ground the last couple of weeks, and between the true freshman and sophomore RB Caden Durham, LSU definitely has a very intriguing tandem on the ground. For Alabama, the most intriguing RB at this stage for NFL futures is probably 244-lb sophomore Daniel Hill. And while they are different shapes and sizes significantly, each team features some elite upside at pass-catching positions. Trey’Dez Green of LSU has been a match-up nightmare on paper for his entire career, but the last three games have begun to bring that theory into reality. He is currently my TE1 in all of College Football, with a significant gap between Green and anyone else. On the complete opposite side of the size spectrum, Ryan Williams of Alabama is an elite prospect, still 18-Years Old, but needs to work on his consistency particularly with his hands. Aside from Williams, potential fantasy 1st-Round pick Germie Bernard and true freshman Lotzeir Brooks make up a dangerous trio that also includes other supplemental players like Isaiah Horton. This is one of the more intriguing and multi-faceted games we have had in a few weeks, with huge 2026 NFL Draft implications from primarily the QB position as well as depth in future talent at RB, WR, and TE.
TOP GAME #2
Texas A&M @ Missouri at 3:30 PM on ABC
Key Players: Kevin Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M (2026) ; Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M (2027) ; Ashton Bethel-Roman, WR, Texas A&M (2027) ; Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri (2027) ; Donovan Olugbode, WR, Missouri (2028) ; Kevin Coleman Jr., WR, Missouri (2026) ; Brett Norfleet, TE, Missouri (2026)
While players like mobile QB Marcel Reed and 3rd-year RB Rueben Owens have started to make an impact and enter into potentially draftable conversations, the strength of the Texas A&M Aggies remains the WR room. Kevin Concepcion is a fringe top-10 player on my Fantasy Big Board for the upcoming NFL Draft, and while Mario Craver’s size may restrict him from being a 1st Round pick, both of these WRs have flashed playmaking ability at the highest levels of College Football. While it was only 1 Catch in his follow-up performance, Ashton Bethel-Roman is a second year WR and highly recruited player who has made an impact in each of the last two games, including 130 Receiving Yards on just 43 Routes (3.02 Y/RR). Bethel-Roman is behind his teammates so far in production, but he is also the only WR listed in this room at 6’ tall. For Missouri, Ahmad Hardy is having a phenomenal season for a 19-Year-Old RB in the SEC even after the fall-off in performance against SEC play, but that fall-off is something that Hardy will need to rectify a bit and showcase that his rushing style can translate to the NFL level. Kevin Coleman Jr. is a YAC receiver with some promise at the NFL level, while Brett Norfleet is a TE with excellent size. The most intriguing pass catcher for Missouri may be the true freshman, Donovan Olugbode, who at least should be seen as potentially the highest upside Devy player of the group.
Tough Road Spots for VERY Important QBs
Indiana @ Penn State at Noon on FOX
Key Players: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (2026) ; Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana (2026) ; Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State (2026) ; Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State (2026)
Just like last week against Ohio State, this is not the Penn State team we were expecting. Even some teams that have fall-offs like Florida retain a high degree of intrigue for this list, but Penn State’s lack of pass catching weapons and injury to QB Drew Allar knock them from an intriguing team to a pair of RBs, one of which in Nicholas Singleton has been a massive disappointment so far this season. Singleton will look to take on his last major opportunity as a College Football player this weekend alongside the RB getting all of the work, Kaytron Allen. The main focal point for this game though will be Fernando Mendoza. It’s not entirely fair as the team Oregon beat had aspirations for a National Championship and a different Head Coach, but this is an intriguing pair of games between this game and Oregon’s game this week, as both Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore get to play in a road environment that we have seen the other play in already this season. OSU’s Julian Sayin ripped Penn State apart last week, which likely takes away some ability for Mendoza to get much credit for doing the same even on the road, but this may be the biggest regular season test remaining for Mendoza, who is one of the most likely QBs to appear in the College Football Playoff. If this game is not a sufficient test for Mendoza, it seems less likely that Mendoza will find a test in the next two opponents, Wisconsin & Purdue, who are a combined 4-13.
Oregon @ Iowa at 3:30 PM on
Key Players: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (2026) ; Dierre Hill Jr., RB, Oregon (2028) ; Jordan Davison, RB, Oregon (2028) ; Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon (2028) ; Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (2026) ; Kamari Moulton, RB, Iowa (2026)
While RB Kamari Moulton has had a few good games for Iowa this season, the ranking of this game so highly in the Weekly Preview is entirely about the Oregon offense – which has struggled in two of the past three games – facing a tough Iowa Defense on the Road. The Wisconsin game was a sloppy, weather-influenced mess, but with so little experience and a limited number of games against top teams, QB Dante Moore will need to take advantage of the opportunities in front of him. As mentioned above, this Iowa game also creates a point of comparison between Moore and Mendoza, and unlike Penn State, this environment is probably going to be seen as fairly similar situationally. Kenyon Sadiq might still be my #1 TE, but he has been one of the more disappointing players so far in 2025. If he wishes to enter the draft and be taken as a true and promising TE1, Sadiq will likely need to show a bit more consistency throughout the rest of the season. Outside of these two, Oregon has a number of intriguing freshman between #1 HS freshman WR Dakorien Moore and the RBs, Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordan Davison.
Other Games to Watch this Weekend
Georgia @ Mississippi State at Noon on ESPN
Key Players: Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia (2027) ; Chauncey Bowens, RB, Georgia (2027) ; Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia (2026) ; Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State (2027) ; Brenen Thompson, WR, Mississippi State (2026) ; Anthony Evans III, WR, Mississippi State (2026)
The early season fumbles got Nate Frazier in the doghouse, but he has played better the last few weeks and has gone four Gs now without a fumble. Chauncey Bowens is not nearly the highly touted prospect that Frazier is, but he is the RB who broke the two big explosive carries in Georgia’s most recent victory against Florida. WR Zachariah Branch has been increasingly reliable with excellent YAC skills, and if this most recent game can showcase a bit more growth in areas aside from a “Gadget” role, Branch is someone with elite athletic upside (at his size). There isn’t a player necessarily approaching Day 2 on my Watchlist from Mississippi State, but at least three players are in a Draftable range. Fluff Bothwell has excellent size and could grow into a solid SEC RB with another year remaining before he can enter the NFL Draft, and Brenen Thompson (Deep) and Anthony Evans (Underneath) each have clear utilities and limitations.
BYU @ Texas Tech at Noon on ABC
Key Players: Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU (2028) ; L.J. Martin, RB, BYU (2026)
A huge game for College Football and a smaller game for our purposes, this is the first real opportunity to spotlight freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, who will not be draft eligible until 2028. Right now, Bachmeier is not necessarily getting as much love with three current starting freshman QB with better tools (Underwood, Sagapolutele, & Washington), but as a true freshman leading an undefeated BYU team, Bachmeier deserves a lot of credit. Aside from Bachmeier, there are a few intriguing RBs in this game, most notably BYU RB L.J. Martin. Texas Tech also features a pair of sophomores in J’Koby Williams & Cameron Dickey.
Maryland @ Rutgers at 2:30 PM on Fox Sports 1
Key Players: Malik Washington, QB, Maryland (2028) ; Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers (2027) ; Ian Strong, WR, Rutgers (2026) ; K.J. Duff, WR, Rutgers (2027)
Maryland & QB Malik Washington will look to bounce back after a rough home loss to Indiana. Rutgers’ defense has been the team you want to play so far this year when you need to get back on track as a Passing Offense, and so hopefully for Washington this is the case on Saturday. For Rutgers, while the team performance has not been great in recent weeks, the trio of Antwan Raymond, Ian Strong, and Future WR Riser of the Week(s) K.J. Duff make Rutgers a sneaky interesting team. If Strong wants to enter the 2026 NFL Draft, he likely needs to start having some of his biggest performances down the stretch. For Duff, there is a clear opportunity to put up 1,000+ Yards and be on every Watchlist heading into the 2026 CFB Season including NFL Watchlists, All-American Watchlists, and Biletnikoff Watchlists.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt at 4:00 PM on SEC Network
Key Players: Jeremiah Cobb, RB, Auburn (2026) ; Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn (2027) ; Eric Singleton Jr., WR, Auburn (2026) ; Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt (2026)
The post-Hugh Freeze era begins with a tough road test against Vanderbilt. While I will be the first to congratulate Auburn on what is hopefully a brighter future moving forward, unfortunately for the Tigers, getting rid of Freeze does not come with an upgrade at QB, and that has been the issue for Auburn throughout the season. Cam Coleman remains the headliner for this team, an elite WR talent with potential to be a top 5-10 pick in the NFL Draft, but the numbers have not quite been there yet. Eric Singleton Jr. has excellent YAC ability, speed, and is very young for being Draft Eligible, but has struggled to produce this season specifically outside of a very limited, gadget role. Jeremiah Cobb has not necessarily entered the Day 2 conversation yet, but he has become the clear lead back for Auburn. Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers had his first truly good game of the season against Texas, and will look to continue that momentum against Auburn. Stowers is #2 in the FBS for Receiving Yards at the TE position.
California @ Louisville at 7:00 PM on ESPN2
Key Players: Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, QB, California (2028) ; Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville (2027) ; Chris Bell, WR, Louisville (2026)
One player for each of the next three Draft Classes (at least in terms of when they can first enter the NFL Draft), for 2026, Louisville’s Chris Bell has excellent size, athleticism, and could develop into an excellent WR, but he is also fairly raw for someone being discussed within the 1st Round. Isaac Brown has excellent explosive ability, speed, and creation ability, but the latter in particular is hard to know how it will translate going from the ACC to the NFL at under 200 lbs. Brown will look to continue his recent dominant stretch against Cal. And then against Louisville will be Cal QB Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele. Sagapolutele had his third multi-turnover game of the season this past weekend against Virginia, but continues to show signs that if he can manage those TOs in particular that he can be a potential NFL Starter / future 1st Round Pick.
Florida State @ Clemson at 7:00 PM on ACCN
Key Players: Ousmane Kromah, RB, Florida State (2028) ; Micahi Danzy, WR, Florida State (2027) ; Duce Robinson, WR, Florida State (2026) ; Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (2026) ; Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson (2028) ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson (2027) ; Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson (2026) ; Tristan Smith, WR, Clemson (2026)
This game against Florida State and Clemson – even with the injury to Bryant Wesco Jr. – could potentially be an excellent showcase of WR talent in the next two Draft Classes. The big name eligible for the Draft this year is likely this Week’s WR Riser of the Week(s), Antonio Williams. Williams will look to build on his first great game of the season against Florida State, and alongside Williams will be former SE Missouri St. WR Tristan Smith and sophomore T.J. Moore. It was actually Smith who had the more targets between the pairing last week, but Moore is the player within this trio that generally seems to be highest rated in Devy. Most likely the offense runs through Williams & Moore, but it would not be a surprise to see Smith – who offers a bit of a different skillset at 6’ 5” – getting more involved. For Florida State, two excellent explosive athletes in Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy will look to make explosive plays downfield or potentially even in the running game. Danzy has been a future Riser recently, and Robinson is at least an athlete worth monitoring. Aside from the WR positions, Cade Klubnik will need to continue and play well to hopefully restore his Draft Stock even to Day 2, and there are a pair of intriguing freshmen RBs who may make appearances in this game between Ousmane Kromah and Gideon Davidson.
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Not too much to add today, and I should be back on Tuesday to discuss these 2026 QB Games most of all.
Thanks,
C.J.
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