FARMCON Conversations

This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with a FARMCON update, then corn, soybeans, wheat, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change.

In this episode:

18:00 – Why Kevin believes producers should focus less on being right about the final yield and more on being right about how the market trades USDA’s number.

29:00 – How Kevin is thinking about corn’s wide trading range, with buyers watching the lower end and producers looking to reduce risk toward the upper end.

32:00 – Why Kevin is trading small, using options, and trying not to manage the “flip-flop” in a market that can move hard both directions.

36:00 – How soybeans are trading the gap between USDA’s 53 bpa yield and private estimates that may already be moving lower.

40:00 – Why Kevin thinks domestic soybean crush could become a bigger story this fall, especially if China adds fresh buying interest.

46:00 – Why Kevin is bullish wheat, but sees the story as more about Black Sea logistics, execution risk, and supply being out of position than a simple production shortage.

51:00 – Why Kevin is watching farmland values, subsidies, lending, and government support as potential long-term risks inside agriculture.

1:03:00 – Why Kevin questions whether farmland has already seen a major expansion in the buyer pool from funds, solar, data centers, and outside capital.

1:11:00 – How Kevin is positioning his investment accounts around AI, the Fed, ag stocks, gold, cash, and potential market pullbacks.

1:17:00 – Why Kevin pushes back against constant doom-and-gloom thinking around debt, deficits, and the economy.

1:25:00 – What Kevin tells young people about careers, flexibility, opportunity, and why chasing money alone can lead to bad decisions.

Key quotes from Kevin:

“As long as the USDA is in business, I think that’s what the world’s gonna trade off of.”

“You can be as right as the day is long on the yield, but if you’re wrong the market and wrong where the USDA’s going with it, you’re just gonna get annihilated.”

“I don’t wanna manage the flip-flop.”

“I trade small here because with the volatility where it is, I don’t want to get knocked out.”

“The key is get in early and leave early.”

“Whoever can hold their breath the longest has got the best chance to survive.”

“Learn, unlearn, relearn.”

“Be the best that you can possibly be at whatever you pick to be.”

This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with corn, soybeans, wheat, and the latest USDA numbers, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change.

Kevin and Todd talk through what has driven the recent grain rally, why producers should avoid becoming locked onto a single price forecast, and how to recognize when bullish headlines may be creating an opportunity to remove risk. From there, the conversation moves into collectible investing, business execution, mental flexibility, and why the ability to stay focused after the work becomes repetitive often separates successful people from everyone else.

In this episode:

Why Kevin believes producers should surf the markets rather than try to predict them, using rallies to reduce risk instead of waiting for one perfect price.

How much of the recent strength in corn, soybeans, and wheat may be tied to speculative money, weather uncertainty, energy markets, and geopolitical risk.

Why Kevin believes wheat may have the strongest underlying supply-and-logistics story of the three major grain markets.

What Kevin looks for when investing in collectibles—and why scarce, elite assets can be easier to sell than average items with far more visible supply.

Why successful people make a plan, commit to the execution, and resist the temptation to change direction simply because they become bored.

How Kevin has produced The Van Trump Report consistently for more than 20 years by focusing on completing one report and one day at a time.

Key quotes from Kevin:

“As a producer, you’ve got to surf the market. You’re just trying to pick spots to take risk off the table.”

“When you get focused on a number, it handcuffs you mentally and makes it difficult to remain flexible.”

“Big bulls need to be fed regularly. I’m not sure the bullish news can continue at the pace it has been coming.”

“Planning is over. Now it’s time to execute—and it’s going to be a grind.”

“Your job isn’t to clean all the dishes. Your job is to clean one dish, and then keep doing that over and over.”

This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with corn, soybeans, wheat, and the latest USDA numbers, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change.

Kevin explains why he took profits on a bullish corn position after the USDA report did not deliver the acreage cut he expected, even though the market still rallied.

His reasoning was simple:
 “When things change, I change.”
A few ideas worth listening for:

Corn and soybeans are carrying weather premium, but both still need fresh confirmation. Kevin explains why corn needs heat during pollination to keep adding premium, while soybeans need August weather, China, energy, or crush demand to bring in the next wave of buyers.

Wheat is becoming an export-reliability story. The U.S. crop is historically tight, but Kevin spends more time on whether Russia can actually move wheat reliably through key export channels.

FOMO is not a strategy. Kevin explains why he is still nibbling selectively in stocks, metals, and industrials, but refuses to chase just because other people are making money.

Demand-driven markets give you more than one chance. Kevin talks about AI, metals, industrials, and commodities through the lens of finding real demand stories and waiting for better entries.

Pruning is part of growth. Kevin shares why businesses often need to cut weak branches, stop watering dead plants, and focus more attention on what actually creates return.

The sunk-cost trap hurts investors and business owners. Kevin explains why looking backward at what you already lost or spent can keep you tied to bad positions, bad projects, and bad decisions.

A few more takeaways from Kevin:
 “The rearview mirror is super small. The windshield is super big for a reason.”

“Most of the hay is made in doing the worst part of the job consistently on a daily basis.”

“They mentally can’t hold the magnifying glass still long enough to get a fire started.”

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week’s conversation begins with Kevin and Todd breaking down the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports and what they believe the numbers are really telling us about corn demand, acreage, and the market’s outlook heading into the heart of the growing season. Kevin explains why he believes the long-term downside for corn and soybean prices may not be as low as many assume, why demand and technology continue to reshape agriculture, and what he’ll be watching next as weather and future USDA reports take center stage. The discussion then broadens into risk management, investing, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence, including Kevin’s thoughts on building positions during volatile markets, separating investing from gambling, and why AI has the potential to dramatically reshape entire industries over the next decade. Whether you’re a producer, investor, business owner, or simply someone trying to make better decisions in an increasingly uncertain world, this episode is packed with timely insights and practical takeaways. We think you’ll enjoy the conversation.

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin and Todd start out with a brief discussion on grandparents actively involved in their grandkids’ lives. Kevin shares why you might not want to trust the view from the road in wet areas and why he believes the overall downside for corn and beans may not be as low as it has been in the past 20 years thanks to demand and technology. Todd then asks Kevin about his buy high and sell higher philosophy and how it applies across his investments. Kevin closes out the show with some great advice for both founder/owner/entrepreneurs and the investors who support them. You’ll want to listen in to hear some solid advice about one of the most important rules Kevin learned in Chicago – my money and their experience will probably at some point become my experience and their money!! Great lessons for all, don’t miss it.

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin discusses the why’s and what’s of a new series in the report… “Building an Agriculture Brand.” He and Todd also share that they are soon to release a business consulting arm to their ventures, to help anyone trying to build and scale an ag business. In his commodity comments, Kevin speaks to his belief the “globalization” is dead, “just-in-time” deliveries are going away, and what that means for the ag supply chain and logistics. He also spends a few minutes reminding producers of the three elements required for a true bull run in commodities. All that and lots more in this engaging episode!

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin and Todd start out sharing the realities of getting older and facing it head on. Then, Kevin shares his current thoughts on the commodity markets and the pair dive deep into “data” in response to a reader’s email following our Scope 3/Biological Pivot story on Monday. Kevin goes on to share his perspective on the “higher for longer” rate debate surrounding the Fed, as well as the upcoming SpaceX IPO and how he is positioned and what history might teach us about them. Lots of great depth in this one so don’t miss it!

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin Van Trump shares his current thoughts on commodities, why he and the family “background” some of their real estate investments and how he got where he is by taking action while others are still researching their next steps. The two then discuss how most people get in their own way while trading, investing and making business decisions. Kevin goes on to share a quote that changed his mental model for his business related decisions and expands on his recent story about ag investment failures, explaining why product-market fit is his primary focus before cutting any capital checks. If you are looking to better position your business and investments, this episode is not to be missed!

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin Van Trump shares his “bushels are bullets” perspective in regards to his crop marketing, along with other relevant analogies to help producers see the big picture and know when to fire their guns! Kevin and Todd dive into the Macro arena where yields and the stock markets are high and consumer sentiment isn’t. Just a reminder that the stock market is not the economy, as they discuss what you should be keeping your eyes on. Kevin goes on to share his hard-earned ag tech investing approach – if you invest in the space, DON’T miss this part near the end. Another great episode you don’t want to miss!

NEW FARMCON PODCAST… This is a not-to-miss episode with Kevin Van Trump, Todd Loechler, and Walter Cronin of White River Nutrition, a U.S. soybean processing company. Stay tuned all the way through to find out why Walter says the U.S. soybean farmers need to hold on because you’re going to see a great decade ahead. Leading into that Kevin shares his commodity outlook and his positions. Kevin also lays out his macro narrative for the markets, Fed, and his investments. In addition to Walter’s strong belief in what lays ahead for soybean growers, he addresses the actual physical market impact of the new record biomass-based diesel RVOs over the next 6 to 12 months, and whether soybean oil or protein meal will ultimately lead the complex, plus much more. This is an masterclass in physical market dynamics and big-money strategy that you cannot afford to miss!