Fathom: In Conversation

Today’s blog is something a little different – I’m sharing the video version of our latest special edition podcast episode on AI and US-China techno-economic competition. Last month I caught up with David Lin from the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) at the 2026 SCSP AI+ Expo in Washington DC. We’ve known each other for about four years now, since Fathom wrote a report for the SCSP about the future of AI and techno-economic competition between the US and China back in 2022. In this episode David and I discuss how the AI race between US and China has evolved over the past four years and assess how well our predictions from that report have fared.

When we wrote the report, we concluded that unless something changed, China’s catch-up to the US would end: its demographic dividend was over, and the country’s productivity growth was expected to slow as it approached the middle-income trap. The ‘something’ that could make the difference was technology, especially if it broke the link between demographics and economic growth. Our hypothesis was that China was likely to focus on AI to replace its dwindling labour force. Were we right? Well, China has gone from installing roughly the same number of robots as the US in 2011, to installing more than eight and a half times the number of US robots in 2024.

 

 

Watch the episode ‘Talking AI with David Lin' to hear the whole discussion.

 

The episode explores themes from Welcome to the Machine, a ground-breaking 2022 report written by Fathom for the SCSP. This report analyses how US-China geostrategic competition could play out over the coming decades. It is based on a systematic study involving the latest findings from academia, the use of novel data techniques and the creation of a state-of-the-art techno-economic model.

For more analysis on China’s economy, US-China relations, global fragmentation and geopolitical risk, explore Fathom’s China Subscription Service and consultancy work. You can also listen to all the original episodes of our podcast, The Rise of China, for more conversations and insights from Fathom’s team.

 

Further reading

Welcome to the machine

Automation could offset China’s demographic problem

A game theory approach to technoeconomic competition

Talking AI with David Lin

The episode explores themes from Welcome to the Machine, a ground-breaking 2022 report written by Fathom for the SCSP. This report analyses how US-China geostrategic competition could play out over the coming decades. It is based on a systematic study involving the latest findings from academia, the use of novel data techniques and the creation of a state-of-the-art techno-economic model.

For more analysis on China’s economy, US-China relations, global fragmentation and geopolitical risk, explore Fathom’s China Subscription Service and consultancy work. You can also listen to the original episodes of our podcast, The Rise of China, for more conversations and insights from Fathom’s team.

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 10: Back to the future

This episode is 13:03 minutes long.

In the final episode of this series, Andrew Harris and Erik Britton look to the future and ask where China might go from here.

For the quote referenced and more observations on early 20th-century China, see: W.Y. Fullerton and C.E. Wilson, New China: A Story of Modern Travel, London 1910, p. 234.

We hope you’ve enjoyed listening to the first series of our podcast. If you have, why not check out our free weekly blog: Thank Fathom it's Friday: https://www.fathom-consulting.com/blog/.

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 9: Doubling down at the double

Episode is 9:53 minutes long.

While China’s official GDP statistics are remarkably smooth, Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator paints a different picture, showing pronounced slowdown in 2015 as a result of the country doubling down. Andrew Harris, Laura Eaton and Joanna Davies explore what this meant for China’s economy and how policymakers responded.

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/too-close-to-the-state-to-fail/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/china-heading-for-the-slow-lane/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/chinas-hokey-cokey-approach-to-reform/

http://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2019/06/news-in-charts-china-falling-into-the-same-long-term-rut-as-japan/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/thank-fathom-friday-leading-questions-chinese-growth/

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 8: China ready for a diet?

Episode is 7:51 minutes long.

Deng Xiaoping's growth model has served China well since the seventies but is ultimately unsustainable. Andrew Harris and Joanna Davies explore China's attempts to rebalance its economy and why it has yet to achieve this.

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/chinas-hokey-cokey-approach-to-reform/

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 7: Does China challenge US hegemony?

Episode is 13:20 minutes long.

For more about the Thucydides Trap, see: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/

Here's the clip from The Wire which Kevin refers to in this episode.

 

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/does-china-threaten-us-hegemony/ *

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/dont-call-it-a-trade-war/

* If you wish to view this note and are not a Fathom client, please request access here: https://www.fathom-consulting.com/request-access-to-notes/.

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 6: Digging your way out of a hole

Episode is 9:10 minutes long.

Even in China, growth slows from time to time. Host Andrew Harris is joined by China specialist Laura Eaton to discuss how policymakers have reacted and why they may just be building greater problems for the future.

Notes on China's growth slowdown from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/china-is-due-a-banking-crisis/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/chinas-ticking-npl-time-bomb/

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 5: The Global Financial Crisis: Made in China

Episode is 13:10 minutes long.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 left an indelible mark on the global economy. In this episode, Andrew Harris and Erik Britton ask whether the Great Recession had its roots in China.

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/the-is-and-the-ought-of-net-trade/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/trade-wars-its-all-in-the-game/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/trade-and-the-theory-of-second-best/

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 4: China is leapfrogging up the global value chain.

Episode is 10:25 minutes long.

The reforms of Deng Xiaoping allowed China to go global and become the leading exporter of manufactured products. Now, China is seeking new ways to expand. Using our suite of proprietary tools, Laura Eaton and Joanna Davies talk to Andrew Harris about how the People's Republic is faring.

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/chinas-latest-power-grab-all-hot-air/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/china-using-capital-flows-to-leapfrog-up-the-global-value-chain/ *

* If you wish to view this note and are not a Fathom client, please request access here https://www.fathom-consulting.com/request-access-to-notes/.

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected].

Episode 3: The day that changed the world

Episode is 9:32 minutes long.

When China joined the WTO in 2001 it was described as “the day that changed the world”. In this episode, host Andrew Harris is joined by Kevin Loane and Florian Baier to explore the wider impacts of China's emergence. The trio discuss the creation of commodity supercycles and how the People's Republic helped keep a lid on global inflation. The 'day that changed the world' referred to in this episode is 11 December 2001, the day China joined the World Trade Organization.

Notes from Fathom Consulting referred to in this episode:

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/research-notes/china-needs-fiscal-reform-to-rebalance/

https://www.fathom-consulting.com/made-china-worlds-biggest-travel-spenders/

 

Fathom: In Conversation is a podcast from Fathom Consulting.

Host: Andrew Harris

Editor and Producer: Leara Gabay

Music: bensound.com

If you have any questions or comments you can contact us on [email protected]..