FedTalk

The Federal Reserve (or "the Fed"), America's central bank, was established by Congress in 1913 mainly to conduct monetary policy. But how were these policy decisions handled before the Fed existed? Join us for a journey through the history of American monetary policy—including the crises that led to the Fed's creation—with Owen Humpage, Cleveland Fed economist emeritus.

Humpage will take guests across the tumultuous monetary policy landscape of the 19th and early 20th centuries, including

• The institutions that conducted monetary policy before the Fed's creation such as the nation's first quasi-central banks, the US Treasury, and even a private bank organization—and why all of them were unsuccessful.
• The various economic and political crises that forced America's monetary function to evolve.
• How the Fed was designed to help prevent future crises, including the importance of credibility, clear guidelines, and Fed independence to monetary policy.

Whether you're curious about pre-Fed monetary policy or just into history, this is your chance to hear from an expert who spent his career at the Fed and who's still studying its origins. No economics degree required—just bring your curiosity!

Humpage will answer questions during the question-and-answer portion of the event. Attendees can also submit questions in advance through the registration form.

• Owen F. Humpage, economist emeritus, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Chuck Soder, senior media relations specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Join us for a discussion of the latest Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), administered in fall 2025, and the key findings from the recently released 2026 Report on Employer Firms: Findings from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey.

Through the presentation, you will discover the key trends impacting small businesses, including

• Their revenue and employment growth and expectations for future growth
• Where owners are seeking funding and whether they can meet their financing needs
• The impacts of changes in international trade and availability of artificial intelligence (AI) tools

The SBCS has been administered nationally since 2016 by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks in collaboration with community and business groups throughout the country. The survey gathers information from thousands of small business owners on business conditions and characteristics, credit experiences, and owner demographics. It continues to be the largest national dataset of its kind.

Speakers will take your questions after the presentation.

• Hal Martin, Policy Economist and SBCS Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Ann Marie Wiersch, Senior Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Allison Clark, SBCS Project Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

For decades, a college degree was a reliable ticket to faster job placement, lower unemployment, and rising wages. But something fundamental shifted around the year 2000, and the consequences are only now becoming fully visible.

Join us for a discussion of new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that reveals a major transformation in the American labor market. Using nearly 50 years of data, researchers Alexander Cline and Barış Kaymak examine how the economic forces in the labor market that once strongly favored college-educated workers have shifted over the past several decades—and how young college graduates have lost their long-standing advantage in finding jobs faster.

What you'll discover:

• Why the unemployment gap between young high school and college graduates has hit its lowest level since the late 1970s—and why this isn't just a postpandemic phenomenon
• How growth in labor demand switched from "college-biased" to "education-neutral" after the year 2000, ending decades of college-biased growth
• What advantages college graduates retain despite their struggles with initial job placement and why the story is more nuanced than "college degrees don't matter anymore"

This research documents significant shifts in how education relates to labor market outcomes over the past several decades. The findings raise important questions about the changing nature of work, education, and economic opportunity.

The speaker will take your questions following the presentation.

• Barış Kaymak, Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Amy Morona, Higher Education Reporter, Signal Ohio

In recent decades, manufacturing employment has fallen dramatically in the United States even as it has expanded globally. Policymakers have focused on trying to rebuild America's manufacturing base through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act and new tariff policies. But a crucial question remains: Who will fill these jobs if manufacturing returns to the United States? This Fed Talk will dive into research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that addresses this issue.

Our discussion will highlight pools of potential manufacturing workers, including

• Workers who could transition to manufacturing from lower-paying industries such as retail and food service
• Young people entering the workforce who could begin careers in manufacturing
• Working-age adults not currently in school or the workforce

Panelists will also explore which regions of the country have existing manufacturing clusters, where manufacturing employment has grown recently, and which areas have the strongest potential for workforce expansion. The discussion could help employers, workforce development professionals, and educators prepare for potential reshoring of manufacturing jobs by creating pathways to help people start manufacturing careers.

Panelists will take your questions following the presentation.

• Marcia Ballinger, President, Lorain County Community College
• Jacob Duritsky, Vice President, Strategy and Research, TEAM NEO
• Annette Vickers, Senior Research Manager, ARM Institute
• Stephan Whitaker, Senior Policy Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Khaz Finley, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for its annual economic outlook Fed Talk webinar.

Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, will analyze incoming economic indicators and walk through the US economic outlook for 2026. The session will offer valuable insights for professionals, academics, business leaders, and others interested in economic trends and policy.

Various economic indicators critical for understanding the health and direction of the economy will be covered:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The broadest measure of economic activity at the national level.
• Inflation Rates: Analysis of current inflation trends, the factors driving them, and their implications.
• Labor Market Indicators: Employment growth, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and other measures that capture the health of the labor market.
• Consumer Spending: Data related to the health of the US consumer, whose spending powers most of the overall economy.
• Business Spending: AI-related investments are raising capital spending, but that's just one part of the story.
• And more.

The Fed Talk program is the Cleveland Fed's speaker series illuminating an array of issues related to the economy. Each session features economists and experts discussing subjects such as inflation, workforce trends, banking, and community development. Attendees can enhance their understanding of economic issues and trends. Interactive Q&A sessions allow participants to ask questions and engage directly with speakers.

• Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch

The regional analysis group at the Cleveland Fed monitors the economy across the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. One important tool the group uses to keep tabs on economic developments across this region is the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS).

Join us for a conversation about the BOTS and the key role it plays in illuminating economic trends across the Fourth District.

The BOTS is distributed by partner organizations twice a year and gathers data from a diverse range of businesses in the Fourth District on topics such as

• Labor markets
• Prices
• Demand for regional goods and services

The data collected through the BOTS potentially provide insights into economic changes before they show up in published data, helping businesses understand why and how trends may be occurring. The survey also informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, ensuring that the unique needs and conditions of the Fourth District are considered in the broader context of national economic policy.

Speakers will take audience questions following the presentation.

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch
• Brooke Dirtzu, economic analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Carol Moseley, research analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Brandon Mendoza, president and CEO, Erie Regional Chamber and Growth Partnership

• Russell Mills, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Pittsburgh Branch

In today's economic landscape, understanding the importance of inflation expectations is valuable for everyone—from everyday consumers to business owners and policymakers.

Inflation expectations are what people think will happen to prices for goods and services in the future. This Fed Talk aims to demystify this concept.

Expectations about inflation matter because they play a critical role in economic decision-making which, in turn, will influence actual inflation. For example, if consumers expect higher inflation, they may spend more now. If businesses expect higher costs, they may raise prices preemptively. Both actions can contribute to higher inflation.

Because we cannot directly observe inflation expectations, we use various methods to measure them. These methods include surveys, forecasts, and inflation-related financial instruments.

October's Fed Talk will highlight the relationship between expected and actual inflation. Our panelists will also be discussing:

• The definition and relationship between the price level, inflation, and inflation expectations
• The importance of inflation expectations for the decisions of consumers and firms
• The factors that influence inflation expectations, such as past inflation rates, economic policies, and global events
• Why central banks are interested in inflation expectations and how central banks can influence these expectations
• The importance of "well-anchored" inflation expectations
• Measuring inflation expectations as well as the interpretation and limitations of these measures
• A closer look at measures of inflation expectations developed and maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Speakers will include economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Center for Inflation Research. The Center is a leading resource to better understand all aspects of inflation through the availability of research, indicators, and educational tools.

Following the presentation, speakers will take questions from the audience.

• Damjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Robert Rich, Senior Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Chuck Soder, Senior Media Relations Specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Reserve Banks play a pivotal role in the US financial system. The Cleveland Fed touches everyone in the Fourth District by

• Working with community and business partners to understand the economic landscape
• Supervising financial institutions
• Playing a vital role in the nation's payments system

In her first year, President Hammack has engaged with local community and business leaders in the Bank's Fourth Federal Reserve District, comprising Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. She then brings their insights into how the economy is working for their communities to the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting in Washington DC.

There are 12 Reserve Banks across the country. Each serves a specific region, and all Reserve Banks operate under the umbrella of the Federal Reserve System.

The primary functions of the Federal Reserve concern

• Monetary policy: Setting US monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the US economy. The aim is to protect your standard of living.
• Supervision and regulation: Promoting the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitoring their impact on the financial system. As a result, you can be confident the bank you choose is operating in a safe and sound manner.
• Payments systems: Promoting a safe, efficient, and accessible system for US dollar transactions. This includes circulation of paper currency and coin. It also ensures the safe transport of transferred money and electronic bill payments from point A to point B.
• Financial stability: Monitoring financial system risks. This helps ensure a strong economy for US households, communities, and businesses, even in uncertain times.
• Consumers and communities: Advancing supervision and economic research. This improves understanding of the impacts of financial services policies on consumers and communities and helps facilitate access to economic opportunity for all.

This session will enhance your understanding of the Federal Reserve and its impact on the economy and our communities. Join us for an engaging and informative discussion.

President Hammack will answer questions during the question-and-answer portion of the event. Attendees can also submit questions in advance through the registration form.

• Beth Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Lila Mills, Editor-in-Chief, Signal Cleveland

The production of semiconductors, including microchips which are used in a wide variety of electronic applications such as phones and computers, is growing in the United States. Major investments have been made in states like Ohio, Arizona, Texas, New York and Oregon. One expert will present findings from case studies about how local partners from private industry, education and nonprofits in these places have come together to both boost productivity for employers and create promising career pathways for workers, particularly workers without a college degree.

The panel will then share their perspectives on the unique challenges and opportunities in Ohio, including what's going well and where they see room for future innovation and growth. Specifically, they will discuss the role of community colleges in developing workforce and training programs that are not tethered to one employer or one industry but designed to give workers transferable skills that can be used across multiple career pathways. What are some of the challenges unique to this state versus others? Where are there successes and where do challenges remain?

Panelists will discuss:

• The promise of the semiconductor industry, and related industries
• The dynamism of these industries and their changing needs
• What we know about effective models of cross-sector workforce partnerships both locally and nationally.

The presentation and panel discussion will be followed by Q&A.

• Lavea Brachman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and Visiting Fellow, University College London
• Abbi Failla, Vice President, Business Operations, EASE Logistics
• Scott McLemore, Member, Executive Board, Governor's Office of Workforce Transformation and Executive in Residence, Columbus State Community College

• Khaz Finley, Outreach Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland