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History has shown there’s no compelling or dependable way to forecast stock and bond movements, and 2019 was a case in point.
Rather than basing investment decisions on predictions of which way debt or equity markets are headed, a wiser strategy may be to hold a range of investments that focus on systematic and robust drivers of potential returns. Investors who were broadly diversified across asset classes and around the globe were in a position to potentially enjoy the returns that the markets delivered in 2019. Executive Chairman and Founder of Dimensional, David Booth, discusses the lessons from 2019 that investors can apply to 2020 on the Dimensional Perspectives blog. 2019 served up many examples of the unpredictability of markets, as a way to showcase this, we revisit a few 2019 Market Forecasts and Outcomes below.
We hope this is helpful in client conversations and would be happy to set up a call to discuss further.
2019 Market Forecasts & Outcomes 2019 Global Market Outlook: Mind the Gap (Charles Schwab)
· FORECAST: “Global growth is likely to slow in 2019 as economic cycle nears a peak…International stocks may continue to see heightened volatility and could enter a bear market if key indicators continue on their current path.”
· REALITY: Charles Schwab correctly predicted that global growth would slow in 2019—global GDP grew 2.2% in 2019,1 down from 3.0% in 20182. The MSCI All-Country World ex USA Index experienced flat volatility in 2019 (12.71% versus 12.72% in 2018) but this was lower than the annualized standard deviation it has experienced over the last 20 years of 16.62%. Additionally, annualized returns were significantly higher in 2019 (21.51% versus -14.20% in 2018)3. Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2019: Down but not Out (Vanguard)
· FORECAST: “In the United States, we still expect the Federal Reserve to reach terminal rate for this cycle in the summer of 2019, bringing the policy rate range to 2.75%–3% before halting further increases in the face of nonaccelerating inflation and decelerating top-line growth.”
· REALITY: The Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2019, ultimately lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%.4 Barron's 2019 Outlook: Professionals Sense Recession Risk (Barron’s via Forbes)
· FORECAST: Barron’s asked strategists from banks and asset managers for a single-point, 2019 year-end S&P 500 projection. The results ranged from 2,750 to 3,100.
· REALITY: The S&P 500 finished the year at 3,231, outpacing many of the most bullish targets.5 Byron Wien Announces Ten Surprises for 2019 (Blackstone)
· FORECAST: “The better tone in the financial markets discourages precious metal investors. Gold drops to $1,000 as the equity markets in the United States and elsewhere improve.”
· REALITY: Gold rallied, breaking the $1,500 barrier in August 2019 for the first time in six years and ending the year at approximately $1,522.6 Gundlach's Forecast for 2019 (Advisor Perspectives)
*For more FORECAST/ REALITY please visit https://www.idawealth.com/learn/the-financial-detox-show/
· 1. Data provided by The World Bank · 2. “Another lackluster year of economic growth lies ahead”, The Economist · 3. Data provided by Morningstar 4. “Federal Reserve cuts interest rate for a third time this year in effort to boost U.S. economy”, Washington Post · 5. S&P 500 Index data provided by Morningstar · 6. Gold Spot Price data provided by Morningstar · 7. “Dollar index records smallest ever annual move in 2019”, Reuters · 8. Data provided by Morningstar · 9. Data provided by Morningstar