…..More records on Wall Street. Reckitt Benchkiser buys Mead Johnson. Blackstone buys Aon unit. Consumer sentiment dips. Oil rallies. Import prices rise. Trump hosts Japan’s Abe. Talks to China’s Xi. Wall will cost more. Greece is still a problem for the EU. Italy next? Germany banks gold. Fast brandy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-10-2017   DOW + 96 = 20,269 SPX + 8 = 2316 NAS + 18 = 5734 RUT + 10 = 1388 10 Y + .01 = 2.41% OIL + .81 = 53.81 GOLD + 5.70 = 1234.50   Reckitt Benckiser has agreed to buy Mead Johnson Nutrition for $90 a share, or $16.6 billion, taking the UK consumer-products group into the infant food market. Including debt, the deal is valued at $17.9 billion. The transaction will add to Reckitt’s per-share earnings in the first full year.   Blackstone has agreed to acquire insurance broker AON’s employee benefits outsourcing unit for $4.3 billion in cash, giving Blackstone ownership of a business that processes work benefits for 15% of the U.S. population. It will also allow Aon to exit the capital-intensive business, allowing it to invest in growth areas beyond its core insurance brokerage operations.   The University of Michigan preliminary February consumer sentiment index fell to 95.7 from January’s final reading of 98.5. The most marked decline was in a forward-looking part of the survey, down 5.1% from January.   Oil is rallying on OPEC. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is higher after data released by the International Energy Agency ...

…..Record close for Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. Trump has a “phenomenal” tax plan, it is really “big league.” Anthem Cigna deal is dead. Tillerson talks NAFTA to Canada. First executive order is now being expedited. Fiduciary rule not dead yet. Boeing’s big deal with Singapore Air. A letter for Xi. Greece in hot water; Italy got zero growth from being in Euro. 4Q earnings at 8.5%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-09-2017 DOW + 118 = 20,172 SPX + 13 = 2307 NAS + 32 = 5715 RUT + 19 = 1378 10 Y + .05 = 2.40% OIL + .71 = 53.05 GOLD – 12.40 = 1229.60 We have new record high closes for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. It’s a hat trick.   The chief executives of several airlines, as well as executives from air cargo companies, were invited to a breakfast meeting at the White House this morning. Trump called the air-traffic control system “outdated” and he told the execs: “We have an obsolete plane system, we have obsolete trains, we have obsolete airports, we have bad roads. And we’re going to change all that.” Trump also said: “We’re going to be announcing something I would say over the two or three weeks that will be phenomenal in terms of tax and developing our aviation infrastructure.” He gave no indication of what the announcement might entail. Presumably the “phenomenal” tax and infrastructure plan does not apply solely to the airline industry, and Wall Street lapped it ...

…..Nasdaq’s 12 record for 2017. Crude glut, prices rise. Intel investing in AZ. Sharp investing in US. Brexit vote. VW investing in Electrify America. Takata guilty. Earnings season roundup. BofA opens robo-branches. Goldman Sachs robo-bankers. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2017 DOW – 35 = 20,054 SPX + 1 = 2294 NAS + 8 = 5682 RUT – 2 = 1358 10 Y – .04 = 2.35% OIL + .19 = 52.97 GOLD + 8.10 = 1242.50 Another record high for the Nasdaq Composite, its 12th all-time close of 2017.   The American Petroleum Institute reported crude supplies rose by 14.2 million barrels last week, undermining OPEC’s efforts to re-balance global markets. The Energy Information Administration said that the U.S. will pump the most crude next year since 1970, as OPEC cuts lift prices and benefit domestic producers. And in its weekly report this morning, the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in crude-oil supplies—their fifth weekly rise in a row and the second-biggest on record, based on EIA data going back to 1982. Crude inventories climbed by 13.8 million barrels in domestic crude-oil supplies for the week ended Feb. 3. Weekly crude stockpiles haven’t climbed by this much since the week ended Oct. 28. Crude oil prices reversed an earlier loss and eked out a gain on the day. Go figure. Best guess is that the report also showed gasoline supplies fell by 900,000 barrels. Sorry, but that’s about the best excuse I can come up with.   Intel will invest $7 billion ...

Sinclair Noe interviews Corban Addison, author of “A Harvest of Thorns”.

…..Nasdaq record high close. Dollar gains. Greece on the edge of… China’s reserve slip. US trade deficit grows. US consumer credit inches up. CoreLogic home price index jumps. JOLT survey – openings flat, quits down. Betsy Devos confirmed. Army goes ahead with Dakota Access Pipeline. A gift for big oil. 9th Circuit hears arguments for travel ban. Oil prices down. GM workers finally catch a break. Apple number one in phone sales. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-07-2017 DOW + 37 = 20,090 SPX + 0.52 = 2293 NAS + 10 = 5674 (record high close) RUT – 5 = 1361 10 Y – .02 = 2.39% OIL – .75 = 52.88 GOLD – 1.80 = 1234.40   The dollar, recovering from its worst start to a year in three decades, gained against a basket of other currencies. The euro is on the defensive, with markets nervous about elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, plus more wrangling over Greece’s bailout and an upcoming reduction in the European Central Bank’s monthly bond-buying. The head of the German Bundesbank responded to accusations from the Trump administration that Germany was manipulating the euro lower. Jens Wiedmann said the dollar strength was “triggered by the political announcement s of the new government.” The pound was among the biggest losers today, falling to a two-week low as Brexit and economic growth concerns return to put pressure on sterling.   Yields on two-year Greek bonds are up 9 basis points and are at their highest level ...

…..Brexit will hurt. EU will keep Russian sanctions. Tech against immigration ban. Fiduciary rule and Dodd-Frank not really dead. When central banks stop buying bonds. JPMorgan on Chinese bonds. US adds oil rigs. Hudson’s Bay considers Macy’s. Earnings season rolls on: Tyson, Toyota, Hasbro. OK Google, turn off the commercial.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-06-2017 DOW – 19 = 20,052 SPX – 4 = 2292 NAS – 3 = 5663 RUT – 11 = 1366 10 Y – .08 = 2.41% OIL – .72  = 53.11 GOLD + 15.70 = 1236.20 Traders around the world seem uncertain about whether to buy or sell. European markets were mixed. Most Asian markets ended the day with gains. This follows a week where U.S. stocks dropped and then slowly climbed back up. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week with a 0.1% dip. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each edged up by 0.1% over the week.   Big business in the UK is starting to feel the pain from Brexit. An Ipsos Mori poll of senior executives at more than 100 of the top 500 companies in the UK found that 58% of businesses believe they are starting to feel the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.   A decision on a Scottish referendum is coming soon. When the U.K. triggers Article 50 to leave the EU, it might also trigger a fresh independence referendum. Scotland – one of the United Kingdom’s four nations along with England, Wales and Northern Ireland – voted to keep its ...

…..Economy adds 227,000 jobs. Unemployment rate up to 4.8%. Wages flat. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-03-2017 DOW + 186 = 20,071 SPX + 16 = 2297 NAS + 30 = 5666 RUT + 19 = 1377 10 Y + .02 = 2.49% OIL + .55 = 54.09 GOLD + 3.60 = 1220.00   The economy gained 227,000 new jobs in January, up from 157,000 in December. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, mostly because more people were looking for work. Job openings are near a record high and that’s drawing a larger share of Americans back into the labor force. Revised estimates from December and November cut 39,000 jobs from the total payroll increases. There were 157,000 new jobs created in December instead of 156,000. November’s gain was chopped to 164,000 from 204,000. Year-over-year in January, the economy gained 2.34 million jobs.   In January, hourly wages rose just 0.1% ( or 3 cents) to $26 an hour. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Slow growth in wages brought the year-over-year pace back down to 2.5%, after rising at a 2.9% clip in December. And while that is higher than the 1.6% pace of inflation, we just aren’t seeing wage-push inflationary pressures, meaning wages are not causing inflation; suggesting there is still slack in the labor market. Still, certain jobs and sectors are very tight indeed. Many small and medium sized businesses are facing labor shortages, especially for tech workers. And we are seeing ...

…..Fed and BOE on hold. Productivity slows. Unemployment claims dip. WH loosens sanctions against Russian FSB (or not). FB no likes. AMZN misses. Deutsche Bank’s negative news flow. A sale at Macy’s. Shell beats Exxon. Sony cuts forecast. Hanjin sinking. Mead Johnson baby. Waymo better. Drones at airports. Watson does taxes. The Greenest Show on Grass. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-02-2017   DOW – 6 = 19,884 SPX + 1 = 2280 NAS – 6 = 5636 RUT – 3 = 1357 10 Y – .01 = 2.47% OIL – .23 = 53.65 GOLD + 6.40 = 1217.00   In Pennsylvania, today the famed groundhog Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his burrow Thursday and saw his shadow. In Arizona, Agua Fria Freddie slithered form his hole and saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter per folklore. Yesterday, Janet Yellen must have seen her shadow, so at least 6 more weeks without a rate hike.   Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its two-day policy meeting and stuck to its mildly upbeat view of the economy but gave no hint on when it will next raise interest rates. The FOMC held its benchmark interest rate between a range of 0.50% and 0.75% while noting that the labor market “remains solid” and inflation was “still below” its 2% target.   Today, the Bank of England, while raising its forecast for British growth this year, also kept policy unchanged and said rates could go either way depending on the economic ...

…..Fed leaves policy unchanged and that’s dovish(?) ADP big surge in private jobs. ISM manufacturing at 2 year high. Facebook is now ubiquitous. VW will pay more. Spectrum’s slow internet. Various earnings reports. Amazon plane hub in KY. 15.4 million victims of ID theft and fraud. UK moves closer to Brexit. Nuclear option for SCOTUS. Iran on notice. Zika still a problem. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2017 DOW + 26 = 19,890 SPX + 0.68 = 2279 NAS + 27 = 5642 RUT – 0 .60 = 1361 10 Y + .02 = 2.47% OIL + .73 = 54.15 GOLD – .070 = 1210.60   Today is Fed Day. The FOMC released its statement today, there was no press conference, and was no change; interest rates unchanged, outlook unchanged. Policy makers reiterated their expectations for moderate economic growth, “some further strengthening” in the labor market and a return to 2 percent inflation. Policy makers in December penciled three rate hikes into their 2017 forecasts and there was nothing in today’s statement that would indicate a change from that course. Wall Street tries to read between the lines, and the absence of a more hawkish tone was interpreted as dovish; the thinking is that if the Fed really wanted to hike rates 3 times this year, they would have given us a hint. Of course, the Fed policymakers could still have plenty to say in their speeches over the next few weeks, but for now, the implied or maybe ...

Sinclair Noe audio interview with Peter Doran, author of “Breaking Reockefeller: The Incredible Story of the Ambitious Rivals Who Toppled an Oil Empire”