Sinclair Noe interview Frank Lalli, author of “Your Best Health Care Now: Get Doctor Discounts, Save With Better Health Insurance, Find Affordable Prescriptions”

…..Wall Street up for the week. Gas cost more than a year ago. Big Tobacco gets bigger. Earnings: McDonalds, GE, Honeywell, etc. Fake Apples. Internet attack. Wallonia? Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-21-2016 DOW – 16 = 18,145 SPX – 0.18 = 2141 NAS + 15 = 5257 10 Y – .01 = 1.74 OIL + .57 = 51.00 GOLD + .50 = 1266.70   The Dow and S&P 500 ended well off their lows of the session, while the Nasdaq rallied and all three indexes ended a string of back-to-back weekly declines. For the week, the Dow advanced 0.04%, the S&P gained 0.38% and the Nasdaq picked up 0.83%.   And we are seeing higher oil prices even as the dollar continues to strengthen, back to the highest level since February; the Dollar Index topped 98. A higher dollar should affect commodity prices as well as US exports. The US is likely to embark on raising interest rates in December while others such as England and the EU are still discussing easing monetary policies. The CME FedWatch Page now puts the odds of a rate hike in December at slightly over 74%.   There are no economic reports on today’s calendar but we do have speeches from a couple of Federal Reserve officials; Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo is kind of the Fed’s point person on regulation; he spoke today at the Columbia Law School and said the Fed may introduce new more measures to test big banks’ capital ...

…..Jobless claims up. Existing home sales up. Housing market in a sweet spot. AZ unemployment drops to 5.5%. ECB stands pat. Wells Fargo criminal investigation for I.D. theft. WFC had targets. A new WSJ? Qualcomm/NXP? AT&T/Time Warner? Earnings news: Microsoft all-time high. We stopped eating donuts for the election. Nasty stuff. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-20-2016.   DOW – 40 = 18,162 SPX – 2 = 2141 NAS – 4 = 5241 10 Y un 1.75% OIL – 1.21 = 50.61 GOLD – 3.70 = 1266.20 The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased by 13,000 to 260,000 for the week ended October 15. That marked 85 straight weeks of claims below the 300,000 threshold normally associated with a strong jobs market, the longest such period since 1970. Part of the increase in claims last week could be related to the effects of Hurricane Matthew, which could have left some people temporarily out of work.   The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.47 million units, the quickest pace since June. The increase in existing home sales was broad-based across four major regions tracked by the NAR, with gains reported in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Inventories remained tight, with 2.04 million homes on the market. That was up 1.5 percent from the prior month, but 6.8 percent lower than in September 2015; enough to push the median price up 5.6 percent from a year ago ...

…..Inflation creeps forward. The Fed an inflation. Social Security benefits will increase 0.3% – don’t spend it all in one place. First time home buyers actually exist. Netflix crushes earnings. IBM, Goldman Sachs, United Health, and J&J beat. Fund managers go to cash. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-18-2016 DOW SPX NAS 10 Y OIL   The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month. The cost of shelter — rent, new homes and previously owned homes — rose at the fastest pace since May. Energy prices, mainly gas, also posted the biggest increase since early spring. The cost of food was unchanged for the month. Over the past year, consumer prices have advanced 1.5%. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, gained 0.1 percent last month. That slowed the year-on-year increase in the core CPI to 2.2 percent.   Energy costs were up 2.9 percent in September as oil and gasoline prices rebounded from recent lows. Previous price declines still mean that gas costs 6.4 percent less than a year ago. So, what does this mean for the Federal Reserve? Since one of the biggest drivers of inflation is energy prices, which the Fed does not seem to control, maybe it is possible to have what Fed chair Janet Yellen described as a “high pressure economy”, in other words a tighter labor market, without igniting inflation. Higher gas and electricity prices may push inflation closer to the Fed’s target of 2% but it is not ...

…..Beige Book moderately optimistic, except Houston. Building starts down, mainly apartments. Saudi Arabia issues debt. China’s 3Q GDP 6.7%, again. Earnings: Intel beats but forecast misses, Morgan Stanley beats, Yahoo beats, Halliburton posts a penny, Amex misses Costco. Google all-time high. New Macs? Don’t pay for delayed luggage. Americans work more. Arizona turning blue. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2016 DOW + 40 = 18,202 SPX + 4 = 2144 NAS + 2 = 5246 10 Y un = 1.75% OIL + 1.05 = 51.67 About a month before a Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the Fed compiles information from around the country; and 2 weeks before the meeting, (today) they publish the anecdotal info in the Beige Book. For the most part, the economy grew at a steady pace between late August and early October. Outlooks were mostly optimistic, although contacts in a few districts expressed concern about economic uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections. The job market “remained tight” with modest employment and wage growth. A tight labor market has yet to lift inflation to the Fed’s 2 percent target. The report characterized price growth generally as “mild,” as manufacturers in the Midwest reported lower prices for finished goods and the hospitality industry on the West Coast saw modest price gains. Overall, prices increased “slightly on net.” Housing expanded in most districts, but home inventories were reported to be low enough to restrain sales in some districts. The oil and gas sector showed signs of stabilizing, and Dallas ...

…..The Battle of Mosul. Yellen looks at a high pressure economy. Rosengren fears inflation. Fischer fears recession. Factory output inches up. Earnings season: BofA beats, Netflix crushes, IBM still bleeding. No Apple car. Tesla and Panasonic to build solar. Samsung goes small in chips. The beginning of the end of HFCs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-17-2016 DOW – 51 = 18,086 SPX – 6 = 2126 NAS – 14 = 5199 10 Y – .03 = 1.76% OIL – .31 = 50.04 GOLD Kurdish forces advanced on villages near Mosul, the start of a campaign to reclaim Iraq’s second-largest city from Islamic State militants who seized it more than two years ago. U.S. warplanes are providing air support for the operation, which involves nearly 30,000 Iraqi and Kurdish troops.   Government bond yields climbed around the world after Friday’s comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen fueled bets that U.S. policymakers may be prepared to tolerate faster inflation in the interests of a more emphatic economic recovery.   By the middle of next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren says he expects unemployment to fall to 4.7 percent and inflation to beat the Fed’s 2 percent target, leaving policymakers at risk of having to squelch the recovery with faster-than-expected rate increases. Rosengren said: “If you wait too long … the more likely you are going to have to do it more quickly … The less likely you are to calibrate it just right.” The result: a jobless rate that might ...

…..Retail sales rebound. Consumer sentiment dips – blame the election, it is driving us crazy. PPI up. Treasury tackles earnings stripping. Janet Yellen on the grand experiment of economics and the path forward. Earnings: JPM (zero systemic problems but billions in fines), C, WFC (Ohio puts Wells Fargo on probation). A faster server. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-14-2016.   DOW + 39 = 18,138 SPX + 0.43 = 2132 NAS + 0.83 = 5214 10 Y + .03 = 1.77% OIL – .11 = 50.33 GOLD – 7.30 = 1251.50 Sales at US retail stores rebounded in September, with auto dealers and gas stations racking up the biggest gains. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month to snap back from a small decline in August that was the first in five months.  In September, receipts at auto dealers increased 1.1%. Still, auto dealers relied on sharply higher discounts to lure buyers, as demand for new cars and trucks appears to be leveling off after a years-long boom in sales. Auto purchases account for about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales at gas stations climbed a seasonally adjusted 2.4%. We weren’t buying more gas, just paying more. Department stores suffered a 0.7 percent sales decline in September, part of a long-term slowdown for the anchor tenants at many shopping malls that increasingly must compete with online outlets. But even online sales were soft. They rose a mere 0.3 percent in September, compared with recent monthly gains averaging nearly 1 percent.   ...

…..Stock market hits support and bounces. China’s export paint an ugly picture. Government workers quit. Oil inventories up. US strikes Yemen. Losses from Hurricane Matthew, and more coming. Earnings news.  Deutsche hiring freeze. HP layoffs. Amazon hiring for holidays. Facebook-Alphabet lay cable to Hong Kong. The gig is up at Uber. Dylan really is a poet. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-13-2016 DOW – 45 = 18.098 SPX – 6 = 2132 NAS – 25 = 5213 10 Y – .04 = 1.74% OIL + .37 = 50.55 GOLD + 2.90 = 1258.80   Today’s trading started with a sharp dive, followed by a slow drift higher (still finishing in negative territory). At one point, the Dow dropped to 17,959, or a 185 point decline. The S&P 500 index dropped as low as 2114, taking out the lows set in early September. And that is where some support came in. The question is whether support can hold.  With the holidays coming up, bears would need to strike during the next couple of weeks. Otherwise, we’ll go into the low-volume year-end mode and the window for a correction would close until the New Year. Minutes from the September FOMC meeting… Many members thought raising rates would be warranted “relatively soon” if the U.S. economy continued to strengthen, but internal divisions remained over the timing of the next move. Relatively soon probably means a December rate hike. Some Fed hawks thought that waiting too long to hike could lead to a recession, ...

…..Fed minutes point to a hike “relatively soon”. Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf is out immediately. Yemen rebels fire on a US ship. Qatar buys Boeing jetliners and fighters (maybe war does pay). OPEC oil output hits a high. Chromebooks are the back-to-school winner. Wal-mart hikes salaries to avoid overtime pay. Facebook gets out the vote. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-12-2016 DOW + 15 = 18,144 SPX + 2 = 2139 NAS – 7 = 5239 10 Y + .02 = 1.79% OIL – .24 = 49.94 GOLD + 2.50 = 1255.90 September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting featured something not often seen since Janet Yellen took over as chair: honest-to-goodness dissent. Three of the FOMC’s 10 voting members opposed the final statement, even as the majority of central bank officials voted to keep its interest rate target anchored at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The Fed said in a statement after its September meeting that the case for a rate increase had “strengthened.” Today we saw the minutes of the FOMC meeting and it looks like a rate hike could come “relatively soon” if the economy continues to advance at a reasonable pace. The account, released after a standard three-week delay, said some of the officials who voted to wait viewed the decision as a “close call.” Here’s a key quote from the minutes: “It was noted that a reasonable argument could be made either for an increase at this meeting or for waiting for some additional information on the labor market and inflation. A ...

…..Alcoa kicks off earnings reports – batten down the hatches. Hard Brexit will be expensive. Rosneft chief says nyet to oil production cap. Galaxy Note 7 is finished. GE looks for renewables. Bids for Twitter? Bueller? Bueller? FCA has a deal with union. Chicago schools have a deal with union. Theranos sued. Phoenix real estate – good sales, more inventory, fewer foreclosures, fewer cash investors. The downward spiral of the American shopping mall. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-11-2016 DOW – 200 = 18,128 SPX – 26 = 2136 NAS – 81 = 5246 10 Y + .02 = 1.76% OIL – .49 = 50.86 GOLD – 7.00 = 1253.40     Alcoa reported third quarter earnings before the bell today, in what has been traditionally known as the start of earnings season. The raw aluminum and specialty parts maker missed estimates on both top and bottom lines. S&P 500 companies are expected to post their sixth straight quarter of declining earnings, according to FactSet data. And while sales are expected to break their six-quarter streak of declines, that optimism may be overdone, based on the dozens of sales warnings to pop up in the last several weeks.   When you look at a chart of the S&P 500, you’ll see we’ve been in a sideways or consolidation pattern since mid-July. Earnings season could be the catalyst for a breakout or a breakdown; with the S&P 500 trading at an historical high valuation in terms of P/E and P/S, the pressure ...