Resale home prices continue to rebound. New home sales up. Consumer confidence flat. Fed FOMC deliberates. Earnings galore but the big one is Apple, and it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Fiat fudged sales numbers. VW has a plan. Amazon has drones in the UK. You could fly around the world without using a drop of oil. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-26-2016 DOW – 19 = 18,473 SPX + 0.7 = 2169 NAS + 12 = 5110 10 Y – .01 = 1.56% OIL – .49 = 42.64 GOLD + 4.40 = 1320.70   The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city composite saw a 0.9% gain in May to stretch the 12-month advance to 5.2%. Phoenix resale home prices were up 0.6% in May, and 5.4% over the past 12 months. Portland had the hottest housing market, New York the weakest. From the 2006 peak, the 20-city composite is down 8.8%; it’s up 40.4% from the trough in 2012.   The Commerce Department reports new home sales increased 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month, the highest level since February 2008. Sales were up 25.4 percent from a year ago. At June’s sales pace it would take 4.9 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.1 months in May. The median price for a new home rose 6.1 percent from a year ago to $306,700.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index was little changed this month, finishing ...

Big week for central bankers. Big week for Big Oil. Big week for Big 4 Techies. Big day for mergers. Earnings looking slightly less depressed. Yahoo joins forces with AOL under Verizon banner. Pokemon will not rule the world. 7-Eleven delivering Slurpees by drone. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-25-2016   DOW – 77 = 18,493 SPX – 6 = 2168 NAS – 2 = 5097 10 Y un = 1.57% OIL – 1.14 = 43.05 GOLD – 6.80 = 1316.30   The Federal Reserve kicks off its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and will announce its decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady and stop short of signaling a possible rate increase in September because of continued uncertainty about the economic outlook.   In total, 15 central banks are scheduled to meet this week. The Bank of Japan’s rate decision is due on Friday and will be closely watched for any hints of more easing in the face of a stronger yen post Brexit and a slowdown in the economy.   World shares held near nine-month highs after G20 finance chiefs said over the weekend they would use “all policy tools” to lift global growth. A communique issued by the G20 ministers at the end of the two-day meeting said Brexit, which dominated discussions, had added to uncertainty in the global economy where growth was “weaker than desirable”. It added that members, however, were “well positioned to proactively address the potential economic and ...

S&P hits new record high close. Measuring the fallout from Brexit. GE reports multiple numbers. American Airlines hits a soft patch. A look at the oil patch. A nationwide network of chargers. Amazon student loans. Pokemon gets a Big Mac. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-22-2016 DOW + 53 = 18,570 SPX + 9 = 2175 NAS + 26 = 5100 10 Y – .02 – 1.55% OIL – .51 – 44.24 GOLD – 8.60 = 1323.10   Stocks closed higher for the fourth straight week, with the S&P hitting a new record high. The rise capped the longest run of weekly gains since March. The Dow Industrial Average did not close at a record high but has been positive for 10 of the last 11 sessions.  A three-week rally in global equities has added more than $4.5 trillion in value.  The next big event for the markets likely will be the two-day Fed policy meeting slated for July 26-27. Although the central bank isn’t expected to push benchmark rates higher, market participants will pore over the updated policy statement for clues on the pace and timing of the next rate hike, which could influence the U.S. dollar, Treasuries and the broader stock market.   In the weeks following Brexit, there was a “dramatic deterioration,” in the British economy; that according to a one-time report from Markit Economics published this morning. Services and manufacturing shrank and a gauge of the private-sector economy plunged to 47.7, well below the 50 level that ...

Stocks slip. ECB steady. Home sales jump. LEI up. AZ unemployment jumps. Anthem & Cigna face antitrust suits. Beaucoup earnings news. Ailes out. Tesla’s super-secret plan (encoder ring included). Selfie fumblers. Printers in space. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-21-2016 DOW – 77 = 18,517 SPX – 7 = 2165 NAS – 16 = 5073 10 Y – .01 = 1.56% OIL – 1.19 = 44.56 GOLD + 15.40 = 1331.70   The stock market was probably a little tired. After 9 straight sessions with gains that pushed the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 to record highs, the market takes a pause; and at this point that’s all we can say with certainty. Markets do not go up in a straight line, and it is very rare to see 9 consecutive up days. Remember that this market has been remarkably resilient.   The European Central Bank kept its interest rates and policy plans unchanged and said the immediate stress caused to markets by Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union had been contained. ECB President Mario Draghi said it was too early to ascertain the full impact of Brexit, but he said the ECB was prepared to take more actions to lift inflation and economic growth if necessary. The bank kept its deposit rate at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at 0.00 percent, both record lows.   The Federal Reserve will wait until the fourth quarter before raising interest rates, likely in December after ...

Dow record high again. Earnings beat diminished expectations. MS, INTC, AXP. VW investigated all the way to the top. Turkey purge. HSBC arrests. The long, strange, fraudulent trip of 1MDB. Bud deal approved. Aetna-Humana, not so much. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-20-2016 DOW + 36 = 18,595 SPX + 9 = 2173 NAS + .53 = 5089 10 Y + .03 = 1.59% OIL + .29 = 44.94 GOLD – 16.40 = 1316.30   The Dow Industrial Average is on a 9-day winning streak; its longest winning streak since March 2013. The Dow and S&P 500 have set multiple record closing highs in recent days. But the Nasdaq remains 3.5 percent away from its record close. A 9-day winning streak for the Dow has only happened 7 times since 1980. In each of the other six instances, the index has been up the following six months with an average gain of 10.41%. Going back to 1900, a 9-day streak has happened 30 times and the average gain in the following six months has been 5.96%.   The dollar is at a four-month high against a basket of currencies, bolstered by strong economic data and growing expectations the Fed may raise rates before the end of the year. The dollar index is trading above 97, its highest level since March 10. Fed funds futures rates now suggest a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with less than 20% a few weeks ago. Treasuries declined, with the 10-year yield ...

Sinclair Noe interviews Kevin Kelly, author of The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

Another record high close for the Dow. Housing rebounds but the rent is too high. We spend more on drugs than groceries. IMF cuts forecast for global growth. Offshore oil (not what you think). Earnings reports from: Wells Fargo, Goldman, IBM, Microsoft, and more. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2016   DOW + 25 = 18,559 SPX – 3 = 2163 NAS – 19 = 5036 10 Y – .03 = 1.55% OIL – .67 = 44.57 GOLD + 3.20 = 1332.70 Another record high for the Dow Industrial Average, although it is looking like the rally is running out of steam. After a 3 week, 8% run for the S&P 500 index, today there was a pullback in the broader market.   Housing starts jumped in June but from downwardly-revised levels earlier in the year, pointing to a market for newly-constructed homes that continues to grind forward slowly and steadily. Starts were up 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.19 million. Permits, which foreshadow starts in the future, rose 1.5% to an annualized 1.15 million.   The value of owning a home in the U.S. has never been greater. The share of Americans’ total personal income coming from rental profit rose to a record 4.4% in the first quarter of 2016. That’s at an all-time high in figures dating back to 1947, and is up from just 0.7 percent thirty years ago. According to the Commerce Department, rental income includes landlords’ profits. It also includes how much ...

More record highs on Wall Street. Earnings season points to earnings recession. Homebuilders are confident. Softbank buys ARM Holdings, and other merger news. VW will pay dealers. Fiat may face fraud charges.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-18-2016 DOW + 16 = 18,533 SPX + 5 = 2166 NAS + 26 – 5055 10 Y – .02 = 1.58% OIL – .73 = 45.22 GOLD- 8.60 = 1329.50   The Dow is on a seven-session winning streak, capped by another record close. The S&P 500 is on a record setting streak as well. This tells us two things: first, the markets are strong, and second, the markets are overbought and due for a breather. Just because a market is overbought, it does not mean it can’t continue to climb higher. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.   Financial markets have shown resilience after Friday’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, although Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 Index sank 7.1% and Turkish bonds sold off, pushing yields up about 7%. Still, the Turkish lira rallied 3% today. Despite the complacency and thousands of arrests, the turmoil is far from finished. More than 90 of the biggest U.S. companies will report results this week, giving a clearer picture of an earnings recesssion. Based on analysts’ forecasts for companies in the S&P 500 index, Thomson Reuters predicts adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter will be down 4.7% from a year earlier, following a 5% drop in Q1.   ...

Sinclair Noe audio interview with Scott Woolley, author of The Network: The Battle for the Airwaves and the Birth of the Communications Age

Sinclair Noe audio interview with Antonio Garcia Martinez, author of Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley