…Twitter and Facebook go to Washington. Google not so much. NYT Op-Ed cites inside resistance. Trade deficit jumps. NAFTA talk, talk. Kyl steps in for McCain. Theranos bleeds out. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-05-2018 DOW + 22 = 25,974 SPX – 8 = 2888 NAS – 96 = 7995 RUT – 5 = 1727 10 Y un 2.90% OIL – .98 =  68.89 GOLD + 5.20 = 1197.30 The Dow is only 600 points away from setting its first record since late January. The S&P 500 is trading just 1% below its all-time high. The VIX volatility index, a measure of market turbulence, remains at a subdued level of 14. Compare that to the turmoil in emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has slumped 11% this year. It’s trading near a 14-month low. China’s Shanghai Composite has tumbled 18%. The Turkish lira has crashed by nearly half against the US dollar. And last week Argentina jacked up its interest rate to 60%. Industrial metals are also showing weakness. Copper, a closely-watched barometer of economic strength, has lost one-fifth of its value since early June. So, the Dow inches higher while the Nasdaq drops 1.2%, and you know that it was a rough day for tech stocks.   Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s chief operating officer, and Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s chief executive,  testified at the Senate hearing about their companies’ response to foreign interference in elections and the moderation of online content. Larry Page, the chief executive of ...

…Trade concerns weigh. Manufacturing sings. Avoiding a shutdown. Tax Reform 2.0 on hold. Emerging markets wobble. Amazon $1T. Nike does it. Kyl replaces McCain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-04-2018   DOW – 12 = 25,952 SPX – 4 = 2896 NAS – 18 = 8091 RUT – 7 = 1733 10 Y + .05 = 2.90% OIL – .43 = 69.37 GOLD – 9.80 1192.10 Fears about trade have at times weighed on stocks since mid-February when the Trump administration announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up nearly 9 percent this year, and much of those gains have come in the past two months. The trade conflict between the United States and China may be on the verge of a sharp escalation. Trump wanted to go ahead soon with tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products, adding to those already imposed on $50 billion of goods. Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, which collectively represents 12.5 million workers, said over the weekend that a new North American Free Trade Agreement won’t work if it doesn’t include Canada. Canada might be excluded from ongoing NAFTA negotiations – or maybe that is just part of the negotiations. Though last week’s NAFTA negotiations sparked a rally in stocks, investors might not want to draw too much from the talks. Mexico and Canada are predisposed to compromise, given their huge dependence on the United States market. And the European Union, which typically takes a ...

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. August PMI increases 3.2 percentage points to 61.3%

Interview with Dolly Chugh, author of “The Person You Mean to Be: How Good People Fight Bias”

…A solid August for stocks. NAFTA on hold. Arizona Supreme Court kills Invest in Ed and Outlaw Dirty Money. California moves to 100 % Clean Energy. McCain’s message from beyond. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2018 DOW – 22 = 25,964 SPX + 0.39 = 2901 NAS + 21 = 8109 RUT + 8 = 1740 10 Y – .01 = 2.85% OIL – .35 = 69.90 GOLD + 1.20 = 1201.80   Today was a mixed session on Wall Street but August was positive, with the S&P 500 posting a 3% monthly rise, the Dow advancing 2.2% and the Nasdaq rallying 5.7%.   Canada and the United States ended talks to update NAFTA. The mood soured following Trump’s comments that a pact would be on US terms while Ottawa stood firm against signing “just any deal.” Trump confirmed off-the-record remarks he made to Bloomberg News this week that any trade deal with Canada would be “totally on our terms”. The Toronto Star first reported on the remarks citing remarks it had obtained. There was supposedly a Friday deadline to cut a deal with Canada, but that deadline was just made up from thin air. Trump notified Congress he intends to sign a trade deal with Mexico 90 days from now, and will include Canada “if it is willing,” according to a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative. The statement came after talks concluded between the U.S. and Canada. Mexico’s government will change hands by December 1, when the ...

…Stocks slip on news of possible escalation of trade war with China. NAFTA hits a deadline. The EU grows weary. No pay raise for federal workers due to “serious economic conditions”. Consumer spending and inflation rise. McCain’s last flight out of Arizona. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-30-2018 DOW – 137 = 25,986 SPX – 12 = 2901 NAS – 21 = 8088 RUT – 2 = 1732 10 Y – .02 = 2.86% OIL + .54 = 70.05 GOLD – 6.70 = 1200. 60 Stocks moved lower as trade concerns once again took center stage. According to a report from Bloomberg, Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes next week. Companies and members of the public have until Sept. 6 to submit comments on the proposed duties, which cover everything from selfie sticks to semiconductors. Trump plans to impose the tariffs once that deadline passes. According to the people familiar with the matter, Trump hasn’t made his final decision, and it’s possible the administration may enact the duties in installments. The U.S. has so far imposed levies of $50 billion in Chinese goods, with Beijing retaliating in kind. It is also possible Trump could announce the tariffs next week but say they will take effect at a later date. The administration waited about three weeks after announcing in mid-June that it was imposing tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods before ...

…Stocks move to record highs. Trade fears calmed. 2Q GDP revised higher to 4.2%. Lettuce mystery explained. AZ election results. McCain’s final honors. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-29-2018 DOW + 60 = 26,124 SPX + 16 = 2914 NAS + 79 = 8109 RUT + 6 = 1734 10 y un 2.88% OIL + 1.17 = 69.70 GOLD + 5.80 = 1207.30   Wall Street extended its rally, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, hitting record highs for the fourth straight session. The Russell 2000 also hit a record high today. The Dow Industrial Average moved higher but is still about 500 points shy of the record close 26,616 set back on January 26. When the Dow hits a record high close, we celebrate with milk and cookies. When the S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs, you can celebrate however you want. Statistically, September is the worst month of the year for stocks. In years when there are midterm elections, the returns have been erratic, and the S&P has averaged a 1 percent decline in September, going back to 1946. But it’s often just temporarily bad news for the market, if history is a guide. In those midterm years, the market most often has rallied in the final quarter for an average gain of 7.5 percent. Trade wars top the list of threats heading into September.   Canada appeared to be taking a more conciliatory approach to its ongoing talks with the United States aimed at ...

…S&P and Nasdaq record highs. Consumer confidence climbs. Housing prices higher. PR death toll climbs to 2975. Trump attacks Google. Primary election day – a review of the hot races Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2018 DOW + 14 = 26,064 SPX + 0.78 = 2897 NAS + 12 = 8030 RUT +0.02 = 1728 10 Y + .03 = 2.88% OIL – .34 = 68.53 GOLD – 10.30 = 1201.50   The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs today.   Consumer confidence in the United States climbed to an 18-year high in August. The consumer confidence index jumped to 133.4 from a revised 127.9 in July. It’s the highest level since October 2000 and beats the previous post-recession peak of 130 in February. The only other period in which consumer confidence was higher was during the Dot Com boom of 1997 to 2000. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, climbed to 172.2 from 166.1. That’s also the highest level since 2000. The future expectations index advanced to 107.6 from 102.4.   The S&P/Case-Shiller national index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% and was up 6.2% for the year in June. The 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% and was up 6.3% compared with a year ago. Price-growth is decelerating, prices are not declining. After years of Seattle charting the strongest price growth, Las Vegas led the way in June, followed by Seattle and San Francisco. New York, which has been slammed by ...

…A week commemorating John McCain. US-Mexico might have a trade deal. Stocks hit record highs. Farm aid. Yield curve flattens. Tesla stays public. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2018 DOW + 259 = 26,049 SPX + 22 = 2896 NAS + 71 = 8017 RUT + 2 = 1728 10 Y + .02 = 2.85% OIL + .22 = 68.94 GOLD + 5.50 = 1211.80   John McCain will be buried at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., on Sunday, Sept. 2, following a week of memorial services commemorating his life.   On Wednesday, a service open to the public will be held at Arizona’s state capitol; the service is expected to be streamed online. McCain will lie for a private service at 10 a.m. local time, and the public will be allowed to view him at 2 p.m. local time.  A memorial service will take place Thursday at North Phoenix Baptist Church. The senator’s official government site stated it was unable to accept any more ticket requests. The event is expected to be live streamed.   McCain will then lie in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, D.C., on Friday, with a ceremony starting at 10 a.m. ET. After the ceremony, the public can view McCain from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET. McCain previously requested that Presidents Barrack Obama and George W. Bush give eulogies at his service at the National Cathedral. Obama’s Vice President Joe Biden will deliver remarks at a separate service in Arizona ...

Interview with James Freeman and Vern McKinley, co-authors of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts, and Bailouts at Citi”