Finding MH370

Last month the Malaysian Government announced that it had reached an agreement with the marine survey company Ocean Infinity to restart the seabed search for the wreckage of MH370. A few days ago, the Australian commentator Geoffey Thomas caused a stir by claiming that the search was already a dead letter — that Ocean Infinity had “given up all hope” that a firm contract for the search would actually be forthcoming from Malaysia. Why did he say that? Is there any chance that he’s correct. I unpack what’s going on in today’s episode.

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Big news in MH370 world with an announcement by the Malaysian government that it has okayed an agreement with seabed search firm Ocean Infinity to restart the search for the missing airliner.

The question we’re going to address today is, where are they going to look for it, and why is this happening now?

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Civil aviation has entered a dangerous new era now that Russia has expanded its campaign of sabotage in northern Europe to attack civil aviation directly.

The question we’re going to address in today’s episode is whether those attacks are limited to the planting of incendiary devices on board aircraft, or whether Russia has also started hacking navigational sytems to destroy aircraft and kill flight crew, in particular with the November 25 crash of a DHL 737 freighter in Vilnius, Lithuania.

To be clear, we don’t yet know the answer to this question, but a point I’ve repeated several times in this podcast is that in compromised environment we have to ask the questions before we can find the answers.

To help us understand the issue, we’re joined today by Harshad Sathaye, a cybersecurity researcher who in 2019 published a paper describing an attack which, if carried out, could cause a crash like the one that occurred in Vilnius.

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In early 2009, Iran’s secret proram to build nuclear weapons suffered a series of mysterious failures. Centrifuge machines used to purify uranium suddenly spun out of control and tore themselves apart. More than a thousand machines were destroyed, and Iran’s pursuit of the bomb was seriously delayed. It turned out that the machines had been sabotaged by a computer virus called Stuxnet, a sophisticated malware developed by Israel and the United States.

The attack demonstrated that hackers can not only take control of computer systems, but also reach through those systems to create physical effects in the real world. Today there’s a whole subspeciality of the cyber security field called “cyber physical” devoted to stuydying this kind of attack, and I’m fortunate to have with me today one of the leading lights, Dr Krishna Sampigethaya, a professor at Embry Riddle Aeronatical University, who will talk to us about its relevance to aviation and specifically to MH370. I ask him whether, in his view, MH370 could have been the victim of a cyber-physical attack.

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In today’s episode we discuss a new approach to gathering the Lepas data that could help us finally understand how long MH370’s debris was in the water. By tapping into a worldwide community of oceangoing sailors who convence on the social media site No Foreign Land, it might be possible to retrieve data from barnacles that are just about anywhere in the ocean. I tried out this approach by reaching out to cruisers Leslie Graney and Peter Sheaff after I noticed that there boat “Itchy Feet” was quite close to an interesting Global Drifter buoy near the island of Vava’u in Tonga. With incredible graciousness and pluck Leslie and Peter immediately set out on a quest to intercept the buoy, while I looked on from halfway around the world. While the experiment didn’t succeed in achieving all of its goals, it was a great demonstration of how the idea could work in the future, and gave us important ideas for improvements going forward.

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The ocean is a big place. So maybe it isn’t that surprising that MH370 wasn’t found.

At least, that’s what you hear a lot of people say.

It’s pretty widely accepted among the general public that the seabed search failed because, well, the ocean is big, why wouldn’t it be hard to find a plane in it?

But actually, the scientists who defined the search area had good reason to think that they knew where the plane had flown to, with a pretty good degree of accuracy. In today’s episode, we discuss how Australian scientists wrestled with the Inmarsat data, trying and discarding several approaches before settling on a method that allowed them to state, with mathematical certainty, where the seabed search would find the plane.

That search, of course, failed. But math is math — if the calculations failed to yield the correct location of the plane, there must be a reason why. A branch of statistics called Bayesian inference offers guidance on what to do next.

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Sergei Deineka and Oleg Chustrak were childhood friends who graduated from high school together in Odessa, Ukraine, then served as conscripts in the Soviet Army before reuniting to open a furniture manufacturing and retail business in their home town. They also imported furniture from Malaysia and China, which is why they came to be on MH370 the fateful night of March 8, 2014. They were travelling from a furniture trade show in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to another one in Guanzhou, China.

At least, that’s the story their relatives told officials. But does it really hold water? I’ve spent years scouring government records and interviewing Ukrainians to better understand what Chustrak and Deineka were up to. The gaps in the story are significant—but at the end of the day, it all makes a kind of sense, if you understand the realities of the post-Soviet world.

Meanwhile, we’re still in our first week of the Kickstarter to raise money for the Finding MH370 Project, and we have a long way to go, so if you could make a pledge that would be amazing. Let’s bust open the paradox of the Lepas barnacles!

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Today I’m very excited to introduce The Finding MH370 Project, an ocean experiment to gather the first new evidence about the missing Malaysian airliner in seven years. This data will resolve key paradoxes about MH370 and should clarify once and for all what happened to plane and the 239 people aboard.

To this day, the only physical evidence we have are several dozen pieces of debris that washed ashore years later, starting with the flaperon, a piece of the wing found on Réunion island.

Marine organisms living on some of these objects, such as barnacles, can tell us where in the ocean they drifted from. But when they examined these organisms, scientist were puzzled by two paradoxes. First, the barnacles were much too young, suggesting a year-long gap between when the plane disappeared and when the pieces went in the water. Second, they were living all over the entire surface of the flaperon, even above the waterline, something that barnacles never do.

The Finding MH370 project will resolve these paradoxes by getting a real 777 flaperon, outfitting it with sensors and telemetry, and deploying it into the southern Indian Ocean on a 15-month mission. At the end of the experiment, we’ll have a much clearer understanding of how the barnacles grew on the real flaperon and hence how and where the object entered the water.

The project’s final product will be a report detailing our findings, and revealing the implications for what happened to the missing plane.

Everything is lined up for the experiment to get underway — all we need is money to pay for it. To that end I’m launching a Kickstarter, and I’m hopeful that the community of people who care deeply about the fate of MH370—and there are many of us, all around the world—will rally to make this happen. It’s fitting, I think, that the solution to a mystery which affects every one of us should be found as a result of a collective effort.

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Starting in 2014, Russia dramatically intensified its hybrid warfare attack against the democratic West, launching hacking operations, misinformation campaigns, assassinating critics, and tampering in elections. Was MH370 a part of this wide-front assault? I’ve argued that it likely was, but whether or not that is the case, what is inarguable is that the success of Russia’s efforts has been aided by the failure of officials and mainstream media outlets to fully understand the true scope and nature of the threat.

Few voices have been more dogged in trying to raise the alarm than Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who also runs the Kremlin file blog. In today’s episode Olga details the various ways that Russia has attacked the US and its allies and explains the motivation and methods behind them.

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In order to understand where MH370’s debris came from, we need to know how marine organisms like the goose barnacle Lepas anatifera typically grow under similar conditions to those that the debris likely experienced. To do that, we’re going to need to collect specimens from buoys managed by an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. The AOML maintains reams upon reams of data that it makes freely available to anyone, scientist or not, all over the world, to use in their research. Mostly it’s used for modelling ocean currents. What we’re interested in isn’t their old data, but real-time information on where each individual buoy is right now, so that we can try to intercept them. On today’s episode I talk with the program’s Acting Deputy Directory, Rick Lumpkin, who knows more about Global Drifters and what happens to them than just about anyone on the planet.

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