As December unfolds, fire danger across the United States remains a pressing concern amid holiday hazards and lingering dry conditions. The National Fire Protection Association reports that December ranks as a leading month for home fires, driven by cooking, heating equipment, decorations, and Christmas trees. Cooking fires peak on Christmas Day and Christmas Eve, accounting for nearly half of home structure fires, with unattended equipment contributing to 25 percent of incidents and 43 percent of deaths. Heating fires surge from December through February, as space heaters cause 47 percent of such blazes, 73 percent of deaths, and 70 percent of injuries. Decorations ignite 835 home fires annually, often from proximity to candles or heat sources, while Christmas tree fires, though rare at 143 per year, result in seven deaths, 13 injuries, and 15 million dollars in damage, frequently from electrical faults or candles.

Wildfire risks stay low nationally but show pockets of elevation. The National Interagency Fire Center's situation report for December 5 to 11 notes light initial attack activity with 95 fires burning 273 acres, one new large incident, and one uncontained large fire: the Ponderosa Fire in Oklahoma, six miles southeast of Stilwell, exhibiting moderate behavior with uphill and wind-driven runs in hardwood litter. Year-to-date through November 30, 62,580 fires scorched 4,969,735 acres, at 113 percent of the ten-year fire average but only 69 percent for acres burned.

RedZone's December 2025 wildfire outlook forecasts seasonally low potential nationwide, except above-normal risks in the southern High Plains, northeast Gulf Coast, and expanding to Florida, the Southeast, southern Plains, South Texas, Gulf Coast, southern Appalachians, and Puerto Rico by February and March. Extreme drought persists in the Northwest, Intermountain West, Southwest, South Texas, southern Oklahoma, Southeast, Midwest, southwest Georgia, and Florida Panhandle.

In New York, the Department of Environmental Conservation warns of high or moderate fire danger statewide due to abnormal dryness, with burn bans in Catskills towns like Hunter, Cairo, and Shandaken. Since August 1, Forest Rangers tackled 53 wildfires burning 26 acres, half from escaped campfires. Officials urge fully extinguishing fires, avoiding cigarettes near vegetation, and reporting incidents to 911.

These patterns highlight vigilance needs: holiday traditions amplify structural fire risks, while regional droughts sustain wildland threats into winter.

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Across the United States this week, official outlooks show generally low national wildfire activity, but with important regional pockets of elevated fire danger that are drawing concern from forecasters and local agencies. The National Interagency Fire Center reports that from late November into early December, overall fire activity remained light, with the national preparedness level at the lowest rating of one, yet more than one hundred new fires ignited in the Southern Area alone as dry grasses and brush responded quickly to short warm, windy periods. RedZone’s summary of the latest federal wildfire outlook notes that while most of the country is expected to see seasonally low significant fire potential through March, above normal fire danger is forecast for parts of the southern High Plains and the northeast Gulf Coast in December, expanding across much of the southern Plains, South Texas, the Gulf Coast and into the southern Appalachians and Southeast as winter progresses, driven by persistent drought and abundant cured grasses. The National Interagency Fire Center’s December predictive services discussion warns that West Texas and far western Oklahoma are already entering a period of above normal significant fire potential as limited early winter precipitation, freeze cured fine fuels and a developing La Nina pattern set the stage for rapid fire spread whenever strong winds and very low humidity align. Local impacts of these trends are already visible in Central Texas, where KFOX Television reports that the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning and described “potentially historic” fire danger near Austin due to single digit humidity, gusty winds and extremely dry vegetation, conditions that can turn small sparks into fast moving grass fires. Farther east, federal outlooks highlight growing concern across Florida and southern Georgia, where ongoing drought and warmer than average conditions are expected to keep fire danger elevated and could lead to more intense activity by late winter as days lengthen. Even where wildland conditions are relatively quiet, structural fire danger is in sharp focus during the holiday season. In Los Angeles, radio station ALT 98 point 7 reports that county and city fire officials are warning residents about indoor holiday fire hazards, citing National Fire Protection Association data showing hundreds of home fires each year linked to decorations and candles, a reminder that in December, fire danger in the United States spans both wild landscapes and living rooms. Internationally, no single catastrophic new wildfire event has dominated headlines in the past week, but global agencies continue to monitor drier than normal conditions in parts of the Mediterranean, Australia and South America as seasonal heat and wind patterns evolve, reinforcing the broader pattern that localized spikes in fire danger can emerge quickly even during what is traditionally considered the off season.

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Across the United States this week, national fire danger is relatively low, but important warning signs are emerging in the South and Southeast. The National Interagency Fire Center reports that as of early December, the nation has seen more than sixty two thousand wildfires this year, above the ten year average for number of fires, even though total acreage burned remains below normal. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, only two new large fires were reported this week, one in New Mexico and one in North Carolina, and both are now fully contained, keeping the national preparedness level at the lowest rating of one.

The latest National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, released December first, finds that most of the country will have seasonally low significant fire potential through March. However, it highlights growing concern in the southern High Plains, the Gulf Coast, and Florida. Forecasters expect above normal fire potential in December for parts of the southern High Plains, including areas of West Texas and eastern New Mexico, as well as along the northeast Gulf Coast, where dry grasses and ongoing drought are combining with periods of warm, windy weather. In January, the outlook calls for above normal fire danger to expand across much of Florida, with continued risk in West Texas and western Oklahoma, driven by La Nina conditions that favor warmer, drier weather and more frequent wind events.

Looking further ahead into February and March, the National Interagency Fire Center projects a significantly larger area of above normal fire potential stretching from the southern Plains and South Texas across the northern and western Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachian region and much of the Southeast, including southern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. Persistent drought, freeze cured grasses, and abundant dead fuels in pine forests are expected to set the stage for rapid fire spread when cold fronts and strong winds pass through.

Around the country, agencies are also taking advantage of the current lull to reduce future fire danger. The National Park Service reports that Ozark National Scenic Riverways in Missouri is preparing prescribed burns between mid December and the end of winter to reduce hazardous fuels, improve forest health, and protect nearby communities.

Globally, satellite based monitoring from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazard Mapping System shows scattered fire and smoke activity in parts of South America, central Africa, and northern Australia, but no single catastrophic event dominating worldwide fire danger this week.

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As we head into early December, fire danger across the United States is showing a mixed pattern with most regions experiencing seasonally normal conditions, though some areas face elevated risks. According to the National Interagency Fire Center's monthly seasonal outlook issued December first, fire activity remained low through November, with total acres burned running at sixty nine percent of the ten year average. The National Preparedness Level stayed at one on a scale of one to five, reflecting the generally manageable fire situation nationwide.

However, certain regions are experiencing above normal significant fire potential heading into the winter months. The southern High Plains and northeast Gulf Coast are forecast to see above normal fire danger in December, with this pattern expected to persist through January. By February, the area of concern expands considerably to encompass the southern Plains, South Texas, and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast extending into the southern Appalachians. Florida is also under close watch, with persistent drought conditions combined with drier and warmer than average temperatures creating above normal fire potential across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia through the outlook period.

In Colorado, state officials recently warned that despite an overall average fire outlook for twenty twenty five, communities cannot afford to let their guard down. The state typically experiences about six thousand wildfires annually that burn between one hundred fifty thousand and one hundred sixty thousand acres. Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control Director Mike Morgan emphasized that approximately ninety percent of all wildfires across the country are caused by people and therefore can be prevented. The state expects wind driven events to drive much of the fire activity this year, similar to the Marshall Fire of December twenty twenty one.

Looking at national trends, Alaska is expected to maintain normal fire potential through March due to ample rainfall, snow, and cold temperatures. The Eastern Area, including parts of West Virginia, Ohio, and Minnesota, is also forecast to have normal fire potential for the next four months, though some areas remain slightly drier than normal. Northern California and Hawaii are both expected to see normal fire potential through March, with historically fewer than one large fire occurring on average in each predictive services area during winter months.

Fire officials across the country are emphasizing the importance of defensible space around homes and communities, proactive prescribed burns, and forest management as essential defenses against wildfires. The consensus message is clear: while winter typically brings reduced fire activity, vigilance remains critical as conditions can shift rapidly with weather changes.

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As we enter late November, fire danger across the United States continues to escalate despite recent rainfall in some regions. The National Interagency Fire Center has issued elevated fire risk forecasts for much of the South through February 2026, driven by abnormally high grass loads and extensive fuel accumulation from Hurricane Helene damage.

In the southern Plains, Oklahoma and Texas face critical fire conditions due to an abnormally wet growing season that produced grass loads not seen since 2021 and 2022. These fuels are already cured and fire-receptive across large portions of both states. Fire managers warn that above-normal wildfire risk will persist through winter, intensifying by February as spring weather patterns emerge and high-wind events become more frequent.

The coastal Southeast tells a different story. Southern Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida missed recent rainfall events and now face expanding severe to extreme drought conditions. Beetle kill and hurricane damage have increased fuel loads significantly in these areas. Fire forecasters expect above-normal fire potential to spread from Louisiana through Florida and northward by February.

Oregon recently experienced a significant wildfire event. The Cram Fire, the largest U.S. wildfire this year, has consumed over 95,740 acres with 49 percent containment achieved. More than 900 firefighting personnel have been deployed to battle the blaze, which destroyed four homes and led to evacuations across two counties. If the fire reaches 100,000 acres, it would become the first megafire of 2025.

The weather pattern driving these concerns is La Niña, which is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions across the southern tier states and East Coast as 2025 transitions to 2026. This climate pattern typically produces extended dry periods punctuated by periodic windstorms, a dangerous combination for wildfire activity.

Meanwhile, the Appalachian region, including areas devastated by Hurricane Helene, received significant rainfall in late October that provides temporary relief from fire danger. However, forecasters caution this reprieve may be short-lived. Cool temperatures and persistent moisture early in November are expected to keep fire conditions relatively calm in the mountains, but heavy dead fuels will require several weeks of dry weather to become fire-receptive, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly later in the season.

Fire managers also warn that prescribed burning operations this winter will face significant challenges. Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky are likely to remain too wet for most prescribed fire operations, while drought conditions may impede burning activities along the Gulf Coast and Southeast by early 2026. The combination of heavy fuel loading from Hurricane Helene, record grass accumulation in the Plains, and developing La Niña conditions sets the stage for an active wildfire season across the Southern Area through late winter and into spring 20

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Unseasonably warm and dry weather has led to heightened fire danger across much of the United States in recent days. In Denver, Colorado, temperatures soared to 83 degrees Fahrenheit, setting a new record for the month of November and fueling concerns about wildfire risk. The city has seen only a fraction of its average rainfall since October first, and nearly 10 percent of Denver County is now in a moderate drought. The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook for northeast and north central Colorado, warning of elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidity and gusty winds. Similar fire risks are present across the northern plains and South Park, where winds could reach 25 miles per hour and humidity levels may drop to 12 to 15 percent, making any new fires likely to spread rapidly.

Across the southern United States, fire danger remains elevated despite some recent rainfall. The National Interagency Fire Center reports that much of the South, including Oklahoma and Texas, faces above-normal wildfire risk through the winter months. An unusually wet growing season has led to heavy grass loads, which are now cured and ready to burn. In the coastal Southeast, areas of Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida are experiencing worsening drought, further increasing fire potential. The developing La Niña pattern is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions to the southern tier states, raising the risk of extended dry periods and frequent windstorms.

In California, a fast-growing wildfire east of Santa Maria exploded to more than 30,000 acres in just one day, prompting evacuations in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The fire produced significant smoke, leading to air quality alerts across the region. While much of the western US saw some relief from recent rains, drought conditions persist in parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, and fire managers warn that the threat remains.

Nationally, over 43 percent of the country is currently in drought, with the most severe conditions in the southern Plains and Southeast. The National Interagency Fire Center notes that while overall fire activity has decreased compared to previous years, localized fire danger remains high in several regions. The combination of warm temperatures, dry fuels, and strong winds continues to create a dangerous environment for wildfires, especially in areas where drought has intensified and fuel loads are heavy.

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The latest data from the National Interagency Coordination Center indicates that fire danger across the United States remains a persistent challenge as we enter the final weeks of November. Nationally, there were 818 new fire incidents reported between November 14 and November 20, with 20 classified as new large incidents and 8 major fires remaining uncontained as of November 21. In the Southern states, fire activity has been notable, with 770 new fires in just one week and five currently uncontained, according to the latest situation report from the NICC. Significant incidents include the Cracker fire in Virginia, north of Pennington Gap, which is primarily burning through timber but exhibiting minimal fire behavior. In Missouri, the Bell Mountain fire near Ironton continues to smolder and is being closely monitored, though significant activity has not yet resumed.

West Virginia has also seen active fire behavior recently, with the Vallscreek fire affecting hardwood litter and prompting a diligent response. The Eastern region overall has experienced 13 new fire incidents and three large fires that remain uncontained at present. Other regions such as the Northern and Southern California areas, as well as the Northern Rockies and the Southwest, report far fewer new fires, with most being quickly contained and fire behavior currently minimal thanks to cooler, wetter weather.

Arkansas and Oklahoma saw fire activity last week as highlighted by local data aggregators, but most wildfires in these states have now been contained. For instance, Oklahoma’s Sally Bull Creek Fire, which started November 17, has since reached full containment. In the Midwest and Northeast, including states like Massachusetts and Ohio, only sporadic small brush fires have been reported with no current threats to populated areas.

Red Flag Warnings, which indicate conditions that may trigger rapid fire spread, were issued in parts of North Carolina and South Carolina earlier in the week, but those warnings have since been lifted as humidity levels increased and winds calmed. The National Weather Service and related agencies continue to monitor drought conditions, which are a key driver of fire danger, especially in the South and parts of the Midwest.

Internationally, fire danger continues to impact regions outside the United States as well. In Iraq, a forest fire that reignited in mid-November grew in intensity following severe drought, prompting deployment of hundreds of firefighters and aerial support. According to reports from Wildfire Today, the government even requested international assistance, underscoring the seriousness of the event.

The current pattern in the United States suggests that while fire activity is now localized and less severe than peak summer months, continued vigilance is required, especially in areas experiencing persistent drought. Agencies are maintaining preparedness and rapid suppression strategies to prevent escalation as winter approaches.

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Fire danger across the United States has surged in recent days, particularly throughout the Northeast where record drought conditions and a lack of precipitation have triggered an unusually high number of Red Flag Warnings according to the National Weather Service and analysis by the Iowa State University Environmental Mesonet. States such as Connecticut and Massachusetts have set new records for Red Flag Warnings in November, exceeding previous highs for any month since tracking began nearly two decades ago. New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Rhode Island have also experienced record or near-record Red Flag activity for the month. In Connecticut alone, four Red Flag Warnings were issued on a single day, an unprecedented event for the state.

This escalation is driven by several converging factors. Extremely low humidity, sometimes as low as twenty percent, combined with strong wind gusts up to forty miles per hour are accelerating the potential spread of wildfires. The persistent lack of rainfall has kept vegetation dry, increasing the risk even from small ignition sources. According to ABC News, nearly forty-three million people across eight Northeastern states remain under active Red Flag conditions. Outdoor burning has been strongly discouraged and authorities warn that even routine activities could spark fast-moving fires.

The ongoing drought has expanded extreme and severe drought zones into locations such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York. Some portions of the Northeast have received less than half an inch of precipitation from the start of November through November nineteenth, two to three inches below normal for this time of year. This concentration of fire weather risk is especially notable, as Red Flag Warnings typically decrease heading into winter, yet autumn 2025 continues to buck that trend. However, the Climate Prediction Center does forecast a return to wetter-than-normal conditions by the end of the month, which may bring relief in the form of rain or snow.

Fire concerns are not isolated to the Northeast. In North Carolina, a Red Flag Fire Warning was issued for the Charlotte region because of dry conditions and wind gusts around thirty miles per hour, which elevate the wildfire threat. Residents have been urged to avoid all outdoor burning until conditions improve.

Elsewhere in the U.S., the Gila National Forest in New Mexico has raised its fire danger rating to moderate, reflecting continued dry and warm weather, and the curing of grass after monsoon season. Fire danger here could escalate quickly if no moisture arrives soon. The Pacific Northwest is bucking national trends, with storms bringing significant mountain snow and plentiful rain, pushing fire potential very low in that region.

Globally, concern has shifted to Central America, where Tropical Storm Sara brought up to thirty-five inches of rain in parts of Hon

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Wildfire danger remains a critical concern across the United States as of mid November twenty twenty five. In Southern California, officials have issued the most serious red flag fire weather warning for areas including Los Angeles and Ventura counties, driven by the threat of extremely strong winds of up to seventy miles per hour and single-digit humidity. According to the Los Angeles Times, the Palisades and Eaton fires have already become among the most destructive in state history, destroying more than ten thousand structures combined and claiming at least twenty four lives. Investigations into these deadly events have included possible links to electrical transmission towers, and overall response has required assistance from the California National Guard and even Mexican emergency crews. Although there is hope for a brief respite in fire weather by the end of the week, with lighter winds and increased humidity, the region remains at high alert as rainfall deficits continue to keep fuels critically dry.

Elsewhere in the country, the National Interagency Fire Center reports that while national fire activity decreased through October, new concerns have emerged in the Southern United States heading into winter. According to Watauga Online and the Southern Area Coordination Center, above-normal wildfire danger is forecast from November through February for much of Oklahoma, Texas, southern Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida. This heightened threat is blamed on abnormally high grass growth, accumulated storm debris from Hurricane Helene, and persistent drought, especially across the coastal Southeast. Even though October rains briefly reduced immediate fire risk in some regions, forecasters warn that as La Nina conditions settle in, dormant season grasses will soon become extremely flammable and increase the overall fire risk.

In the central Appalachians and the Mid Atlantic, including areas of Virginia and West Virginia, the most recent Incident Management Situation Report from the National Interagency Fire Center lists ongoing wildfires with moderate to extreme fire behavior resulting in ongoing evacuations and area closures. The Bald Mountain fire in Virginia and the Greenwalt Gap fire in West Virginia are among those still posing threats to communities as of this week.

Nationwide, the number of wildfires recorded so far this year exceeds the ten-year average, but the total acreage burned is significantly below that same average, signaling that while more incidents have occurred, they have generally been less extensive. Drought remains a key factor driving these patterns, with substantial areas of the Southeast and portions of the Plains remaining under severe to extreme drought, while the western and northern regions have benefited from recent moisture. Looking globally, major fire danger events have been less prominent in the past week compared to the significant and ongoing emergency still unfolding in parts of the United States. The

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Over the past week, fire danger in the United States has shown a mixed pattern. According to RedZone's November 2025 Wildfire Outlook, most of the U S is experiencing seasonally low wildfire potential due to recent moisture in the West and Rockies, which has eased drought and helped limit active fire spread. However, dry and warm conditions persist in the Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast, maintaining localized fire danger. Notably, areas such as central Appalachians, the northeast Gulf Coast, and much of the southern Plains are forecasted to face elevated fire risks as the month progresses, largely because of above-normal temperatures and lingering drought in these regions.

The National Weather Service has issued recent Red Flag Warnings for several areas. One such warning was declared for northeast Minnesota, including Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, and St Louis counties, where high winds and low humidity are making conditions ripe for fires to ignite and spread rapidly. Officials there have emphasized that any burning, even campfires, could easily escape control and recommended that all residents refrain from outdoor burning while the warning is in effect, underscoring the seriousness of current fire weather.

The Southern United States is entering what experts describe as a period of heightened concern. According to the Southern Area Wildfire Risk Assessment, persistent drought, a dried-out vegetation layer, and the influence of developing La Niña conditions have set the stage for above-average wildfire activity through the coming winter. Regions including Texas, Oklahoma, the Gulf States, and the Appalachians are especially vulnerable. The abundance of cured grasses, fallen leaves, and, importantly, large areas of downed trees from storm damage have created a significant fuel load, making it possible for fires to ignite and spread quickly from a single spark. With limited rainfall in the seasonal outlook, fire managers expect this elevated risk to last for several months, potentially stretching firefighting resources thin.

In California, large-scale wildfires such as the Gifford and Madre Fires earlier in 2025 highlighted the state’s vulnerability, burning over one hundred thousand acres in total and forcing evacuations in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, as reported by CNN and the Center for Disaster Philanthropy. Although major active fires have subsided in recent weeks, critically dry and windy conditions continue to pose risks, especially as the Santa Ana winds peak in the fall and early winter months.

Across the country, there is a clear pattern: where recent rainfall has relieved drought, fire danger has abated, but in areas still experiencing dryness and above-average warmth, the risk remains high. National fire statistics show that while the number of wildfires this year has exceeded the ten-year average, the total acreage burned remains below average, thanks largely to improved moisture conditions in the West. Fir

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