In this episode of Fixed + Floating, Josef Pschorn speaks with Tim Riminton, Senior Credit Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, about China's chemicals capacity flood, Europe's energy shock, and why INEOS sits at the epicenter of the sector's worst downcycle in years.

Tim and Josef unpack the INEOS divergence: Group Holdings' €700M Project One ethane arbitrage catalyst versus Quattro's 15% yielding bonds and €1bn 2027 refinancing wall. They explore Ratcliffe's cash-leaking conglomerate empire (F1, autos, oil/gas), ring-fenced debt boxes, and what PVC demand signals say about global cyclicals.
From 9x leverage to covenant stress, this reveals the credit playbook for HY/IG PMs tracking chemicals distress and fallen-angel risks.

Key breakdowns:

• 3-year chemical overcapacity crisis + China policy impacts
• INEOS Group vs. Quattro: leverage, assets, risks
• Project One: US ethane (€800/ton) → Europe sales (€1,200/ton)​
• Refinancing walls, 15% yields, covenant stress​

Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Consult professionals before investing.

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Full analysis: fixedfloating.substack.com

Recorded: Dec 2025

#ineos #ChemicalsOvercapacity #HighYield #CreditStress #ProjectOne #fixedfloating #creditpodcast

The global chemicals industry is in turmoil - a potential structural reset from China’s capacity build-out, utilization dropping from low-mid 80s to high 70s, and Europe’s energy shock. This has made chemicals one of the weakest European high yield sectors, with spreads blowing out ~600bps over, negative returns, and distress clustering in commodity-heavy, leveraged names.​

Tim Riminton, Senior Credit Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence (7+ years on basic materials), explains why this isn’t just Europe: overcapacity ripples globally via collapsing EBITDA (one issuer fell 60% Q/Q), plant closures (up to 20% Europe cracking capacity), weaker coverage, covenant stress, and refinancing risks pushing issuers toward private credit.​

We break down oil-to-olefins-to-plastics value chain, US shale ethane cost edge vs Europe/China/Middle East, China’s self-sufficiency shift hurting Korea/Japan exporters, operating leverage mechanics, and demand signals from housing/autos/consumer goods signaling broader credit cycle risks like fallen angels

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Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Host/guest views are their own. Consult professionals before investing.#FinancePodcast #CreditPodcast #Chemicals #HighYieldCredit #Plastics #Overcapacity #China #EuropeEnergyCrisis #Petrochemicals #FixedFloating

In this episode of Fixed + Floating, we sit down with Jakub Lichwa, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Sector Bond team at TwentyFour Asset Management, to explore how insurance companies invest, why private credit has become central to insurer portfolios, and how BDCs, private equity firms, and life insurers are increasingly converging into a single ecosystem of credit creation.

We dive into the mechanics of insurance balance sheets, the growth of private credit as an asset class, and the structural impact of PE-owned insurers on modern credit markets. This episode is a deep look at how long-dated liabilities, ALM constraints, solvency rules, and portfolio-return targets are driving one of the biggest shifts in global fixed income.

Topics we cover:
• What’s actually inside today’s private credit portfolios (direct lending, specialty finance, structured credit)
• How life insurers think about yield, duration, ALM, capital charges, and risk-based capital
• Why US, European, and Japanese insurers allocate to private credit differently
• The rise of private-equity-backed insurers and the new balance-sheet model
• How BDCs, insurers, and private-credit funds form a self-reinforcing funding ecosystem
• The incentives and systemic risks when asset managers control insurance balance sheets
• What could happen if annuity inflows slow or portfolio performance weakens
• Long-term implications for credit markets, liquidity, and financial stability

About the guest:
Jakub Lichwa is a member of the Multi-Sector Bond team at TwentyFour Asset Management. Previously, he was an Executive Director in credit trading at Goldman Sachs and held roles at RBC Capital Markets, Daiwa Capital Markets, and Moody’s. He holds degrees from the University of Bath and the University of Kansas.

Guest newsletter sign-up: https://fixedincome.twentyfouram.com/sign-up-blog-updates-uk

Slide deck:
https://1drv.ms/b/c/3256e611aeacc253/IQC7ZybnnNrPQ7ETAezdwy6VASN3923tRS_hMPkO6NMU6bQ?e=1qQG6w

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Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Host/guest views are their own. Consult professionals before investing.

In this episode of Fixed + Floating, Professor Edward Altman (NYU Stern) explains the rise of shadow defaults and what credit investors should know about today’s evolving corporate credit landscape. We explore private credit growth, distressed exchanges, and hidden risks in loan and bond markets, and analyze what default patterns may signal for the next 12–24 months.

Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score and one of the most influential thinkers in corporate credit, shares insights into how leveraged finance has evolved into a $5 trillion market, why private credit is growing, and where silent stress and shadow defaults are appearing across credit markets. His research remains foundational for investors, restructuring professionals, and financial institutions worldwide.

The discussion breaks down how credit cycles lead business cycles, why loan defaults are rising faster than bond defaults, the mechanics of distressed debt exchanges, and the evolution of the modern Z-Score. We also cover PIK toggles, liability management exercises, and hidden risks in private credit, helping professional investors understand the forces shaping credit markets today.

Slidedeck: https://1drv.ms/b/c/3256e611aeacc253/IQBNBxz0rmF8RIZxZBStfVCtAV3t2Twa2015NJrNj1ekQ1s?e=WngDx3

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Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Host/guest views are their own. Consult professionals before investing.

In the debut episode of Fixed + Floating, Josef Pschorn sits down with Jared Muroff, Head of Special Situations at Octus, to examine the collapse of First Brands. We explore what went wrong, the market implications, and key lessons for credit investors and professionals navigating stressed corporate credit.

Jared Muroff, CFA, brings over a decade of buy-side and restructuring experience, including senior roles at Balbec Capital and ASM Capital. He shares insights into working capital finance, distressed situations, and Chapter 11 mechanics, providing guidance on how investors can assess and respond to credit risk in today’s markets.

This episode breaks down:

• The root causes of the First Brands collapse

• How working capital financing fueled the crisis

• The mechanics and implications of its Chapter 11 restructuring

• Rising legal fees and hidden bankruptcy costs

• Recovery prospects and actionable trade ideas

• How investors should think about pricing credit risk today

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Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Host/guest views are their own. Consult professionals before investing.

#CreditInvesting #FinancePodcast #MacroMarkets #FixedFloating #FirstBrands #DistressedDebt

Inside First Brands’ Collapse - Snippet

Welcome to Fixed + Floating: The Credit Podcast! 🎙️

Launching this November, Fixed + Floating brings institutional credit investors in-depth conversations with leading voices in credit and macro markets. Our trailer gives you a sneak peek of the insights and strategies we’ll cover in full episodes.

Listen to expert discussions on:

- Credit markets and investment strategies

- Macro trends shaping global finance

- Interviews with industry leaders and market experts

Subscribe now on Spotify to never miss an episode: https://open.spotify.com/show/1AVhofAsVGoyC1xeIUda9K?si=4vjGpUrVQhS_KMboAsFUmg

Connect with us and learn more:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fixed-floating/

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