Sulnox has signed a very large new supply contract with Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) for quintuple the volumes and more than double the tenure of the first deal announced in January 2025. The new contract will extend the use of Sulnox Eco fuel conditioner to more than 50 vessels in the EPS fleet and follows the initial 30 vessel, 18-month contract together with additional technical validation initiatives. This agreement will see EPS further increase its investment into Sulnox but on much more favourable terms for Sulnox. Besides reaffirming the traction of Sulnox’s fuel conditioners in the marine market, the company has also been making a sustained push to build out its distribution network targeting land-based use.  We make no changes to our forecasts apart from incorporating the nominal new share issuance. On our estimates, Sulnox is funded through to profitability which we forecast from FY28 with the potential for very rapid escalation thereafter (see our initiation on our portal).

We recently attended a scheduled update for analysts hosted by Seplat CFO, Eleanor Adaralegbe which addressed the recently announced Board succession plans as well as providing a more general update of operations and strategy implementation. Current 2026 targets and the 2030 strategy targets were reiterated. While the company remains highly disciplined in its management of operations and cash, the strength of current cash generation means Seplat is exploring the potential to accelerate opportunities in its portfolio, while the free cash flow linked dividend policy indicates a path to further increases in the dividend, in addition to the hike in the 1Q26 total dividend.  Despite the vigorous share price performance, Seplat continues to trade below peers based on enterprise value to reserves and now offers easily the highest prospective dividend of UK listed peers with significant emerging markets exposure while still generating significant growth. Seplat offers 21% and 51% upside to our calculated net asset values of 668p and 834p at discount rates of 15% and 10%, respectively.

Index concentration has accelerated and the US now makes up 63% of the MSCI ACWI, while China, Taiwan and South Korea together account for the same share of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. These markets are themselves dominated by a few very large companies, so investors seeking genuine diversification must look more widely. BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) offers exactly that, with c 50 stocks across 18 countries representing almost a fifth of the world's population yet under 1% of global market capitalisation. Experienced co-managers Sam Vecht and Emily Fletcher, supported by BlackRock's deep research resources, combine top-down and bottom-up analysis to find opportunities in smaller emerging and frontier markets. The result is a highly differentiated global portfolio that has delivered lower volatility, attractive mid- and longer-term returns, and an above-average dividend yield (currently 4.0%).

AltynGold delivered a strong revenue performance in 1Q26 despite operational issues impacting QoQ production and gold grade. Near record quarterly revenue of US$56m was up 122% YoY and off 3% QoQ with the YoY performance benefitting from gold sales up 29% to 11,532oz and the realised price increasing by 70% to US$4,809/oz. Production and processing fell QoQ, impacted by the planned mining of upper horizons to address a vertical gap in the main ore bodies at Sekisovskoye which also reduced the mined gold grade. This work was completed in April and gold grades have since returned to normal levels. We continue to expect ore processed to approach 1Mtepa and make no changes to our forecasts which are based on an average realised gold price of US$4,000/oz. AltynGold remains extremely lowly rated versus peers with EV/gold Reserves of just US$80/oz versus the peer average of US$708/oz, on attractive multiples, and below the net present value of current net cash flow based on flat production through 2030 alone.

Galliford Try recently hosted an investor and analyst visit to some of the projects it is undertaking in Hampshire for Southern Water. A wide range of the company’s senior leadership team were also present, including the CEO and CFO. The headline takeaway at the group level was that all divisions are performing very well with little risk seen to funding despite the broader macro pressure on government finances. For water, which is funded by the water companies directly, the main takeaways were the scale of the opportunity ahead in AMP8 through 2030 with AMP9 set to be even larger, Galliford Try’s ability to leverage its higher margin adjacent and specialist businesses into that water infrastructure opportunity, and the depth of the company’s customer relationships. Uniquely, Galliford Try works with all the water companies in the UK, with whom it has an average 18 consecutive year working relationship currently including 57 active frameworks. 

Sulnox delivered a year of accelerated commercial traction, reporting FY26 revenue to the end of March up 134% YoY to £2,623k, and ahead of our estimate. Revenue jumped 89% QoQ in part reflecting delivery of the committed pipeline at the start of the quarter.  While Marine remains the primary driver of growth, Sulnox also broadened its reach across land-based sectors. Momentum has continued into 1QFY27. Cash and net cash at 31 March was £0.8m with a further £2m gross raised post period-end, largely from a customer related subscription. Further to the EPS transaction announced at the start of 2025, EPS now holds a 6.47% interest in Sulnox. We increase our FY26 estimates to reflect the 4% beat to our revenue estimate. On our estimates, Sulnox is funded through to profitability which we forecast from FY28 with the potential for very rapid escalation thereafter. 

Seplat reported a robust quarter financially despite operational issues as it benefitted from exceptionally strong realisations, achieving an 11% premium to Brent. Production has already recovered and is set to grow further. Management demonstrated their confidence in the outlook declaring a USc9 dividend for the quarter, a 96% increase YoY, including a special dividend of USc4.0, and reiterating all guidance metrics for 2026. We raise our earnings forecast for 2026 to US$288.4m (from US$154.5m) to reflect an increase in our average Brent price assumption to US$80/bbl (from US$65/bbl) and introduce our 2028 forecasts. Despite the vigorous share price performance, Seplat continues to look attractive, as it unlocks the value from its giant, under-developed, low-cost resource base of 2,487 million barrels of oil equivalent and stands to benefit the longer the high oil price environment continues. Our calculated net asset values of 668p and 834p at discount rates of 15% and 10%, respectively indicate 17% and 46% upside to the current share price.

For AltynGold, 2025 was a transformational year.  The company reported record results for the year to December 2025 benefitting from the increase in the gold price and completion of the processing capacity expansion at its Sekisovskoye gold mine. The company is well set to deliver further expansion at Sekisovskoye and move into the preliminary development stage at Teren-Sai as well as being positioned to commence the payment of a dividend. We increase our forecast for earnings prospectively by c11%. The company’s valuation remains extremely attractive in absolute terms and against peers. Management continue to expect to take a decision on at least doubling mining capacity at Sekisovskoye by mid-year while moving ahead to gain a production licence at Teren-Sai in 2026.