Flashpoint: Geopolitics Simplified by Arezki Daoud

In this audio podcast, Arezki Daoud is sharing an update on the situation in the Sahel, specifically in Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries that have been torn apart by outside forces, be they the Jihadists, or some western powers, and now by the Wagner Group, a mercenary group that represents Russia. Arezki addresses the two most visible issues the Sahel faces on the security front and concludes with a third wildcard factor.

Welcome to this week-in-review episode where we look at some of the key  events affecting the geopolitics of North Africa and the Sahel. Your  host in Arezki Daoud, principal analyst at MEA Risk LLC and editor of  The North Africa Journal.  In the Sahel, the general state of  insecurity, as well as the atmosphere of transition due to the take over  of power by military juntas, have had a dominant play in the Sahelian  context. In North Africa, the dominant story may very well be Tunisia,  with the president there increasing his control of the government,  expanding assaults on human rights and making mistakes that could cost  Tunisia billions in lost loan opportunities.

Greetings to our second episode of Week in Review and a quick summary of what we are tracking in the Sahel and in North Africa. Today is Saturday, the 7th of January 2023. This past week was somewhat subdued in the region largely due to the year-end holiday season and the shift to 2023. But events don’t stop simply because it is new year. Arezki Daoud of MEA RIsk LLC presents to you the big stories of the week, which include that of an unfolding emigration crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. 

In this week's review of events in the Sahel and North Africa, Arezki Daoud addresses the major factors affecting the region as the year draws to an end.

This podcast hosted by Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC focuses on some of the most important events in North Africa and the Sahel that we are monitoring as of Friday, 23rd of December 2022. So this is a sort of week in review. This week was dominated by a couple of big events, the first is the political stalemate in Tunisia, and the second is about the collapse of the peace deal that was signed some 7 years ago by the government of Mali and rebel groups in the north. Each of these events are harbingers of more problems ahead.

Winter is near and Europe is facing an energy crisis after Russian  attacked Ukraine. The EU and its member-countries have been looking for  natural gas everywhere they can but the prospect of replacing Russian  gas supplies on short notice will be difficult. Can Algeria and Africa  fill the gap? In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that a short  contribution from Africa will not be possible, but the longer term feels  more optimistic.

The Maghreb’s biggest nations and regional rivals, Algeria, and Morocco,  so far have refrained from choosing a side in the Russian-Ukrainian  conflict. For its part, Tunisia has had ambivalent positions due to a  number of factors, which we will cover in a moment. In general, though,  these nations have had no intention on openly support one or the other  party in the conflict and have assumed some neutrality based on multiple  geopolitical factors. Broadly speaking and setting aside Ukraine as a  sovereign nation, North African states see this conflict as one that  opposes Russia, an extension of what used to be the Soviet Union,  against the West, a group of nations that encompasses Western Europe and  the United States. In some way, they see the conflict as the  continuation of the cold war that pitted the USSR to the USA. Other  major factors, such as North Africa’s proximity to and neighborhood with  western Europe, the developing gas market, Russia’s military weight and  its growing economic influence on the region are among the many factors  that have been weighing on decision makers in North Africa on how to  deal with this thorny conflict.