It’s a new year, and we’ve been busy evaluating market dynamics in order to make projections about what might happen next. We follow an evidence-based investment approach here at Flourish, and it helps us understand what is happening in the markets today so that we can effectively position client portfolios for 20+ years into the future, while also incorporating what we expect to happen in the next 2-3 years. In this episode, we share what we expect to happen in the markets in 2022.

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In episodes 21 and 22, we reflected on 2020 and shared expectations for 2021. I’m happy to say we got some predictions right, but I’m not surprised we got a lot wrong, too. It always bears repeating - you can’t time the market, and that’s never an approach we try to take here at Flourish. As of this recording, it’s safe to say the stock market exceeded expectations for the year, and we’re digging into the details - including more than 50 new all-time highs for the S&P 500.

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Episode 56: How Statistics Almost Ruined Thanksgiving

If you watched the news on Thanksgiving this year, you might have found it to be a negative experience. The statistics generating media headlines about inflation painted a bleak picture. However, it’s important to take a skeptical approach to how statistics are used, because numbers can have a lot of manipulative power. In this episode, we’re discussing why it’s important to never accept statistics at face value.

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Episode #55: Corporate Earnings and Market Bubbles

You’ve probably seen the recent headlines asking whether the market is in a bubble, and this strikes fear in many investors. After all, most remember the 2008-2009 burst during the Great Recession, and the quick transition from all-time high to losses of over 30% in early 2020 with the Coronavirus. These memories make the term “market bubble” especially terrifying, and some capitalize on the fear associated with it to get the public’s attention -- even though the fundamentals of the U.S. market are very good at the moment. There has been a gain of more than 25% this year, due to a supportive Federal Reserve and rebounding consumer spending, both of which directly support strong corporate earnings. We’ll examine what it all means in this episode reflecting on our post-Covid economy.

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Episode 54: Panflation: What is it? When will it end?

As evidence-based investors, we typically rely on historical stock market and economic data from the past one hundred years to answer the common questions we’re hearing from our clients. Every once in a while, however, we come upon a question without much historical context - and the current environment certainly qualifies. We’re currently experiencing the characteristics of a global pandemic, an ongoing economic recovery, strong stock market performance, an historically low interest rate environment, and huge dislocations in the supply chain. We’re calling it “panflation” - an inflationary environment that has been created by a pandemic. It’s different from traditional inflation and from stagflation, and we examine why in this atypically non-historical episode.

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We’re back with a new format of biweekly episodes, where we dive even deeper into the themes and developments that are driving market activity. In this episode, we discuss the potentially volatile period we are currently facing in the economy and in the markets. The U.S. government is walking the tightrope between the competing ideas of spending and saving, with a contentious political environment in the mix, too. The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt because Congress has always taken bipartisan action to avoid it. However, it may be time for more significant action to lessen our spending or to substantially increase the debt limit moving forward.

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Episode 52: Update on Meme Stocks

In this follow-up to Episode 26, which discussed the difference between investing and trading, Jay Pluimer revisits the rise of “meme stocks”. There are two sides to every trade, and looking back eight months later, we can better understand several aspects of the waves that meme stocks created in the market.

In this episode, Jay tackles questions like: Who made more money, individual investors or the companies? Has the number of meme stocks gone up or down over time? Are all of these trades based on the idea to create a “short squeeze” like with GameStop? Get the answers to these questions and more in this insightful episode.

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Episode 51: Tapering: Who, What, Why, and When

Episode description.

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Episode 50: Why Invest in the Stock Market

In this milestone 50th episode, Jay Pluimer digs into the reasons why the stock market is such an important investment opportunity, and the role it plays in helping investors accomplish their long-term financial goals. He explains how being in the market creates opportunities to benefit from innovations and inventions in the marketplace -- without having to have a revolutionary idea or build a marketing plan yourself. Through context, insight, and statistics, Jay also shares why the odds are always in the favor of a patient investor, and how you can capitalize on a 100% chance of earning a positive return.

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Episode 49: Let's Talk About Bonds, Baby

Are bonds on your mind? You’re not alone! In this follow-up to episode 36, Jay revisits frequent questions about what bond allocations mean for your portfolio in the current climate of rising interest rates. Giving full credit to Salt ‘N’ Pepa, he shares “all the good things and the bad things that may be.” As bonds are a complex topic, this episode provides insight on the four roles bonds play in a traditional, diversified portfolio, as well as how they can and cannot be leveraged in a time of rising inflation.

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