EU sanctions on Russian-linked refiners just shook up the diesel market – and propane may be next. StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan unpack the latest supply shocks, hedge fund positioning, and inventory risks. With fall harvest and tariff deadlines ahead, now’s the time to review your hedging playbook.

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Crude prices stabilize, diesel inventories hit 15-year lows, and propane builds. What does it all mean for your energy strategy? In this episode of Focus on Fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan break down the latest market drivers, including OPEC production trends, refinery dynamics, and key hedging signals.

Join Trevor McClanahan as he explores the oil market’s response to Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. He and Alex Hodes examine key fundamentals including potential disruptions to Kharg Island exports, the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure, and implications for refined products like diesel and propane.

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Nashville Hedge School takeaways

· Refinery outages and diesel time spreads

· China’s tariffs and throughput declines

· OPEC’s political recalibration

· Flatlining U.S. shale production

· Summer gasoline demand signals

• Kazakhstan's non-compliance with OPEC quotas could trigger internal discord and a potential price war.

• StoneX expects a strong floor around $60 per barrel, but market upside remains limited without a clear catalyst.

• U.S. energy policy, tariffs, and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela add headline-driven volatility to the mix.

• Tariff volatility is disrupting markets, but fundamentals remain steady. The recent selloff in oil prices is driven more by headline anxiety than long-term structural shifts in demand or supply.

• Diesel demand holds while gasoline weakens. While gasoline demand has shown early signs of softening, diesel consumption remains above last year’s levels, pointing to a more stable industrial and freight environment.

• Supply response may set the floor. With U.S. shale breakevens near $65 per barrel, current prices under $60 are unsustainable long-term and could prompt production cutbacks that rebalance the market.

• Propane’s Evolution into a Global Commodity

How the U.S. propane market shifted from domestic heating fuel to a key export product tied to global demand and crude oil benchmarks.

• Why Prices Are Up in the Middle of Winter

Analysis of the factors behind firm Conway and Belvieu prices, including weather-driven demand and unplanned outages at Gulf Coast facilities.

• The Export Pull and Asia’s Influence

A look at international propane flows, especially China’s appetite for feedstocks and how that drives U.S. export volumes.

• Pricing Benchmarks and Hedging Opportunities

Guidance on what to watch when locking in prices, including the WTI-propane ratio and why 40% of crude is a useful historical reference point.

• Risk Management Strategies for Propane Marketers

Tips on how to structure hedges that offer protection while preserving flexibility in uncertain markets.

• Why Crude Is the Real Driver

Clarifying propane’s pricing correlation—spoiler: it’s not natural gas.

• Tariff Uncertainty and Market Sentiment: Including the potential for proposed U.S. tariffs on North American metals to disrupt energy supply chains

• Sanctions and the “Dark Fleet”: How Russia and Iran continue to move oil despite sanctions, and whether U.S. enforcement will tighten

• OPEC’s Production Strategy: What the latest production announcements mean for crude prices and whether OPEC will adjust its approach

• Natural Gas and LNG Expansion: Why natural gas prices are holding up despite oil’s decline and how global LNG demand is influencing the energy landscape

• Technical Price Levels and Market Positioning: Where traders see critical support levels and how hedge funds and commercial participants are positioning for potential future disruptions

The conversation covers several key topics:

● Sanctions and Their Impact: How expanded U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran have influenced market sentiment and volatility.

● The “Dark Fleet” and Sanctions Evasion: The role of ship-to-ship transfers in circumventing restrictions and how enforcement could tighten.

● OPEC’s Response: Whether OPEC will increase production in response to U.S. pressure and how that could impact pricing.

● Canada’s Oil Tariffs: The potential effects of new tariffs on U.S.-Canada crude flows and regional fuel prices.

● Refining Capacity and Inventory Trends: How refinery disruptions and seasonal trends are affecting U.S. petroleum inventories.

● Market Positioning and Price Risks: What CFTC data reveals about hedge fund and commercial trader positioning, and the potential risks ahead.

The conversation covers several key topics:

● The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions: Sanctions, Iranian crude exports, and China's critical role in determining global market flows.

● How weather, OPEC production cuts, and the dynamic relationship between crude and refined product prices are driving trends.

● Potential Policy Shifts Under the Trump Administration, what "drill baby drill" and proposed infrastructure development could mean for energy markets and pricing in the coming year.

● Strategic Recommendations and Market Outlooks: Key strategies for navigating market uncertainty, along with details about the upcoming 2025 Energy Market Outlook webinar hosted by Alex and Trevor.

Resources:

Register for the 2025 Crude and Refined Product Outlook NOW!

https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/CrudeOilRefinedOutlook2025/summary

For more information or to be featured on this podcast reach out to us by emailing [email protected] or visiting www.stonex.com.