Mid East Matters Online

For Arab Leaders, where to go from Here?


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Aleppo is in rubbles, so was Homs before, and Mosul soon after. Beirut has been taken over through a staged presidential election. Yemen is at war with battles raging in the air, sea and on land. Bahrain is in a state of siege. Libya is fast racing down the Inferno staircase. Did we forget something? Iran’s victory lap must be complete this time of the year. All of its threats have been neatly destroyed or eliminated either by the US (the Taliban in Afghanistan, Saddam in Iraq, ISIS, in Fallujah and Mosul) or by Russia (ISIS in Syria). Iran’s cronies are reigning supreme at present from Baghdad to Beirut. But bless their hearts, Arab Leaders have snapped into action. They held a GCC meeting with no else than Theresa May! How astute and shrewd a move this must have been and how impressed were their protagonists from Teheran’s Mullahs, to Obama’s inner circle, to Putin. All must have lost sleep on the day when the British PM, now the leader of a lonely Island off the coast of Continental Europe, set foot in the Gulf. What was discussed at such summit, one might ask? The flow of immigrants into the UK, or the role of the City’s banks in post-Brexit Europe, or Boris Johnson’s criticism of Saudi’s foreign policy? I reckon some sales of Rolls Royce engines, BAE aerial defense systems, and other meaningful subjects were on the agenda, apart from the usual love of falconry, Harrod’s holiday shopping, and the worrying prices of Mayfair’s real estate.

Clearly Arab heads of States have failed to show their leadership traits at each crisis or major event that hit their shores in the past years. No Arab League meeting was held to denounce the killing of civilians in Iraq or Syria, or to disavow civilian collateral casualties in Yemen even if the Arab coalition’s planes were the cause of such unfortunate incidents. No statement from the Arab League condemned Russia turning Aleppo into Grozny, or protested against Libya’s descent into total chaos, or disapproved of the coerced presidential election in Lebanon. Their idea of leadership is to duck when things are in transformational mode. To avoid staring problems in the face or finding solutions, even if incomplete or less than perfect.

The only efficient diplomacy that Arab leaders have engaged into in the past years is the one relating to OPEC. Judging from the latest agreement on production cuts, such a pragmatic approach could bear fruits if applied to the world of realpolitik. The OPEC diplomacy was not based on mutual trust but on an alignment of interests. So why not practice such policy for the current woes of the region. If Iran’s expansionist drive is the cause of all troubles then curtailing it must be practically pursued. In Syria, the majority Sunni opposition, which is beholden to Saudi, Qatar, and partly Turkey, must offer an olive branch to Putin. Such as permanent naval, ground and air bases in Syria, a simile Marshall Plan for reconstructing the country, and a deal for Gazprom or Rosneft to exclusively develop oil & gas resources, both onshore and offshore. In exchange Bashar Assad would go into exile, a Triumvirate of Sunni technocrats and Alawi militaries will be in charge of the next government, and Iran’s influence eliminated. Saudi itself must apply a better treatment and offer equal rights to the Saudi Shia population. They are Saudis after all, and are the responsibility of their own government not of Teheran’s. In Bahrain, the long serving PM (in his mid 80s) should be excused and the more open-minded crown Prince (in his mid 30s) invited to forge a lasting governance scheme with the opposition. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the renegade President who was for years on Saudi’ payroll should return in exchange for curbing the influence of the Houthi rebels in the country. The GCC has dealt with Saleh before, and it is materially cheaper to deal with him again, instead of prolonging a war of attrition on its very borders.
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Mid East Matters OnlineBy Major Aurens