Mid East Matters Online

The departure of Sultan Qaboos of Oman in the early days of 2020, marks the end of an era in the Arab world. Many founders of republics, kingdoms and sheikdoms have departed before him, to the great loss of their nations. To name but a few one would remember Presidents Qudsi, Khoury and Chehab in Syria and Lebanon, as well as, King Faisal in Saudi Arabia and the late Sheik Zayed in the UAE.

But nations do not die with the passing away of their leaders, they either forge ahead with their national projects or slip back into the chaos of internecine struggles. On the one hand, the Levant has been disappointingly rich with such failures. Except for Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are worse off under their current leaders than at the turn of the previous century. On the other hand, the Gulf has been surprisingly rich with better alternatives. Young, educated, forward looking leaders have taken the reins of power and instead of scanning the past for answers they are looking to the future for better prospects. The more astute political class in the Levant, who received higher education before the rest and, tackled the end of the colonial era few decades prior, has always acted with arrogance and some disdain towards its Gulf counterpart. Although dependent on the Arab Gulf for jobs, opportunities, and financial support the Levant’s intelligentsia (a false noun) has derided the leaders of the Peninsula for their tribal manners both in governance and social behavior. History has proven that wearing a tie (or shunning to wear one) does not make the man. Education without a culture of fairness, social justice, or respect for basic rights is only a fools’ panache.

The old rhetoric that has long dominated the waves of Arab media, sounds out of tune in 2020. Boycott policies, Pan-Arab projects, and the creation of a Baathist or more recently, Shia Crescent have failed all too miserably. With the advent of modern communications people now have the means to compare and contrast. What did the Nasser era bring to Egypt? What did the PLO bestow upon the Palestinians? What did Assad, Saddam, Ghaddafi and others offer their people? Except years of misery, ruthless internal security services, momentous failures at regional wars and, the invasions of Chad, Kuwait and Lebanon. Today Syria is a serf State of Russia, just as Iraq and Lebanon are to Iran. Yemen is at war, and so is Libya with more than one regional & international power with its hand in the pie.

The answer is not an about face to the old regimes. Although, compared with the iron order of the past, there is a cynical nostalgia for former dictators. Rather, a need for a breed of new decision makers. What is in want is a new class of political activists, secular thinkers and objective journalists, social and grass root groups whose focus is on issues that have eluded all: respect of individual liberties and the death of the centralized State. With individual liberties come a plethora of rights including genuine freedom of speech, freedom of worship and, ownership. As opposed to the present-day nominal elections, religious tolerance (an abhorring word and concept), and kleptomaniac capitalism. The centralized State has long suppressed such basic rights because in a truly democratic system feudal families and military juntas would vanish. With the freedom of worship based on mutual respect not just tolerating the ‘other’, comes the benefits of a richly diverse society. And, with the freedom of ownership, the yoke of clientelism and modern serfdom, would be abolished.

The Arabs have been dealt a poor hand for almost a century. The region’s leaders have run out of excuses and the people have ran out of patience. However, the fossilized politicos are capable of fabricating new justifications by the day, if masses only remain willing to entertain their falsehoods. Hence, the change will come from the bottom up in the Levant,

2019 will be remembered for key political events including, the start of the partisan proceedings in the US Congress to impeach Donald J. Trump, the resounding election victory of the Tories in the UK, and the unprecedented democratic protests in HK. Closer to the Middle East, the milestones of 2019 will be split between the financial landmark of the quasi-successful Aramco IPO, the civilian protests in the streets of Iraq and Lebanon, and the saga of repeat-elections in Israel, which are starting to have a twist of the ‘Groundhog Day’ motion picture.

On that latter chapter of pain and toil in the Levant, the story has just begun and the last weeks of the current year that were punctuated by the dual resignations of the respective PMs in Iraq and Lebanon, the joint naval exercises of Iran-China-Russia in the Gulf of Oman, and the most recent US strikes on Iran’s proxy militias in Iraq and Syria, do not bode well for the coming year.

In a globalized world, it is difficult to dissociate such events. The US election in 2020 means that the US President will have his hands tied during the campaign. Thus, launching large scale military operations against Iran, as opposed to surgical strikes, will be difficult if not near impossible. The hawkish advisers in the WH such as Steve Bannon and John Bolton, who would have advocated a more robust retaliation, are no more. Add to that, the genuine aversion of this President, despite predictions to the contrary, to forays into foreign lands. He prefers to keep his ‘powder dry’ unless he is pushed to using it or is being paid to do so. Ask the Saudis and South Koreans and their answers would be in unison. In 2020, Russia looks to be more active in the Middle East, as it continues to prosecute its war against the opponents of the Assad regime in Syria, without any international recriminations.  Russia will keep the Eastern Mediterranean basin busy with war-like activities as it presses forward with its Nord Stream 2 project and secures its supply of natural gas into the EU. Syria will bear the brunt of Russia’s military meddling although the Libyan theater will not remain unscathed, thus reinforcing the views that gas from Russia is the safest and best supply route to Western Europe.

From all the nations of the Middle East, the one to worry about the most in 2020, is Lebanon. At such critical time, Lebanon will have to face its demons all by itself: no US support, no brotherly love from the GCC, no EU tangible plan and no national unity to bring the country onto a possible path for recovery. Iran can offer Hezbollah few US Dollars and many missiles, but that is as far as the list goes. The national political class is gripped with apathy, a touch of idiocy and grave complete ignorance about financial matters. The elite class (bankers in its near majority) are complicit or implicated -one way or another- into the financial morass and do not favor any deal that would reduce to ashes their already wiped out equity. This brings to mind what John Kenneth Galbraith said about the Crash of 1929: “The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil.” Moreover, TVs are crammed with programs that feature self-appointed banking experts, economic gurus and even astrologers who have their own hair-brained plans for getting the country out of the fix. Unofficial spokespersons of the ‘street revolt’ are bickering among themselves. They are split between a group of opportunists who see their newly acquired fame a bridge for a ministerial position, and a group of idealists who want to revive the failed dreams of socialism. Ordinary people in the streets are helpless and continue to blame the ruling elite whilst asking for change, but change without a clear & radical transformation in the political culture of Lebanon would not do them any good.

Fixing this nation does not start by fixing the financial problems only,

The revolts in the many towns and cities of Lebanon are unprecedented. They are true expressions of a young (and not so young) multi-confessional generation that is fed up with the incompetence and decay of State-institutions and, with the unhinged kleptocracy of the ruling class. People have had enough with false excuses hurled at them over decades to justify the lack of public services, the absence of accountability in public office, and the severe social woes that plague the country. Sometimes we were told that it was all caused by the convenient enemy namely, Israel, other times by the inconvenient neighbor that is Syria, more recently by ISIS, and on a more regular occasion it is sectarianism that is singled-out as the root cause of all ills. Whilst such justifications have a modest ring of truth, they are shallow and insufficient to explain the total subjugation of national interests to private profiteering.

The political class in Lebanon (although neither political nor having any class) has ran out of excuses and most importantly, out of cash. The little, borrowed, fuel that was so far used to oil the wheels of the cranky economy -made up of costly deposits and remittances from abroad- has dried up. The wheel has, all but too predictably, stopped while crushing many underneath its heavy structure burdened by a mountain of public debt, acute clientelism, high unemployment rate, and rampant graft.

Not only is the present devoid of any signs of recovery from its paraplegic state, even the future of the Lebanese seems mortgaged. Apart from long-term debts that need to be repaid by future generations, the prospects of national wealth from recent discoveries of oil and gas have been reportedly wrecked. These newly found riches have allegedly been usurped via shady deals concluded between multinationals (Total and Eni still need to come clean on this) and local business people connected to the despicable Oligarchs-politicians.

With a heavy past, a devastated present and, a grim future, the Lebanese had no hope except to revolt and try to break the chains of their servitude.

Rightly so, but alas uniquely, the street demands focus on corruption and the ineptitude of the current breed of politicians. Little is being uttered about the present-day enabler, the facilitator and the protector of such degraded ruling class. We use the term ‘present-day’ because at each cycle of corruption stood a different ‘enforcer’ who actively assisted and abated the politicians in their fraudulent schemes. Militias during the civil war (1975 to 1991), the Syrian regime of Assad Sr. then Junior in the immediate post-war era (1992 to 2005), and Hezbollah since 2008 to present day.

Whilst the political gang in Lebanon needs no mentor in terms of corrupt practices and no special assistance to commit fraud, it nonetheless requires a protector. The role of the protector is to subdue the State and prevent its institutions (army, civil service, judiciary et al) from fulfilling their natural roles as guardians of a frail democracy, and from prosecuting violations of constitutional texts and principles.  The protector -as in any mafia style society- would in return count on the blind loyalty of such political serfs to further its own strategic aims, and as 'protection money', receive part of the spoils.

Lebanese protestors are legitimately concerned about putting bread on the table, not spilling blood onto the streets. They also intimately know that any military confrontation with Hezbollah might quickly and irreversibly escalate into a civil war. No such outcome is good for the protestors or for Lebanon, as a whole. However, any change in the political scenery that does not factor-in the pressing demand of de-militarization of the Hezbollah is doomed to fail. Any new government (even if made up of Nobel Laureates) and any future parliament (even if regrouping Saints) that are required to live with a State within ...

The Bloomberg article of November 7, 2019, on the need for the Rich to get a Haircut (in Lebanon), is pertinent in both its take and approach. But one needs to imagine a more probable (not unique) scenario for a drastic plan to overcome the daunting crisis facing the country.

At the outset, one must state that any economic solution without the eradication of the phenomenon of a State (Hezbollah-led Lebanon) within a State (official Lebanon) is doomed to fail. No regional or foreign investor, no regional or international institutions, bank, fund, or monetary authority would lend any assistance to a State when its sovereignty is held hostage by a paramilitary organization blacklisted by the regional (except for Iran, Syria and Iraq) and the international (community).

Now, a short historical background seems necessary. Since the early 1990s at the start of the post-war reconstruction era, a diabolical alliance was forged. The deal included a group of Warlords (names known) and carpetbaggers (also well known). The PM would ‘play’ a nominal political role but instead concentrate on the reconstruction projects. Those landed at majority into the lap of a close circle of cronies and beneficiaries. In turn, the rest of the political class would ‘play nice’ and not disturb this scheme as long as its share of the spoils was secured. A significant ‘cut’ for the Syrian Godfather (to fund the security apparatus and the individuals in charge) made this compromise viable and ensured its durability.

However, there were not enough revenues to go around so new public projects were ‘fabricated’ by the infamous CDR and other governmental agencies in term of infrastructure contracts (roads, bridges & tunnels), rehabilitation of the power grid (deliberately keeping it inept and fuel-based so technical theft and imports could go on), with certain cash cows farmed out to specific politicos.

From the womb of this Unholy Alliance emerged a triumvirate emerged and it comprised: (i) the BDL/Government : issuing public debt at unsustainable levels to fund the engrossed budget and finance overpriced projects, (ii) the Banks: taking people’s deposits (from locals and Diaspora alike) and subscribing the bulk into Treasury Bills and Bonds; and (iii) the Security apparatus: the Syrian security services and their Lebanese counterparts which were ‘bribed’ through huge salaries, outrageous perks, outsized retirement benefits, etc.., in order to ‘protect’ this politico-economic cabal. After the Syrian Anschluss ended in 2005, came the Iranian dominion, at first contained in 2008 and in full swing since 2016, attempting to resuscitate that nefarious compromise, with almost the same actors. This time around though, the funds that fueled the deal came wanting and the whole charade unraveled in a tragic manner.

Focusing on the present crisis would require an insightful look into the first two protagonists: the BDL/Government and the Banks. The BDL/Government has borrowed from banks c.$100 bln and cannot repay. So, what to do? The BDL/Government should notify the Banks that it is incapable to return 1/3 of it (or c.$33.33 bln) but in exchange will offer them a 30 years tax holiday on profits and dividends. Over 30 years this would amount to $3 bln per annum. Banks would in turn inform depositors holding sums above a certain threshold, and who have benefited from junk bond-style interest over the years, that 33.33% of their deposits will not be repaid. They would rather convert into banks’ equity thus strengthening the capital base of the sector. This debt-to-shares swap would come with the commitment of a buy back or a liquidity event in future years. To work, this plan would necessarily require a merger between the 52 existing banks to become 15 or 20 if not less, and serious changes in their leadership teams.

The other 1/3 of the BDL/Government debt should be transferred to a newly formed, tightly managed,

In his last public speech, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, a misnomer to start with ‘cause it gives the feel of a U.N. like organization, was nervous. His face did not reveal the full extent of his anxiety nor did his voice divulge his true anger. To blur the issues, his office was arranged such as only the Lebanese flag stood behind him. He raised his finger twice or thrice and made fun of it as to decrease the tension with his viewers. His, was an address to almost 2 million Lebanese who descended onto the streets from all major cities and towns of Lebanon demanding the end to a corrupt, inept, and untrustworthy political class. Starting with a government made up of sectarian appointees and cronies, who as one of their members stated, had the audacity to ask people to pay taxes even if such taxes were squandered!

However, the government-sanctioned corruption and the ‘Ebola of bribes’ which has ravaged all echelons of Lebanon’s body politic is but one part of the Iceberg against which the Lebanese Titanic has collided. Saying that should not take our sights away from the apparent component of the Iceberg. That part is the one that appears to the naked eye, that stares its victims in the face, and rubs their noses in the dirt. That part is comprised of the political class which includes the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, several former ministers and high-ranking civil servants, and their entourage of shadowy and questionable business partners. These partners constitute the effective channel through which the politicos conduct their organized theft of the public coffers. Such theft comes in the form of rigged public contracts, lease or sale of State assets, procurement of fuel and other energy supplies, and the usual racketeering from the mobile cellular services, the Casino’s gaming and gambling revenues, proceeds from the tobacco monopoly and tens of other government sources. Attacking this political class is legitimate, justifiable and a civic duty to all those citizens who have been deprived of their savings and more so, of their hope for a normalized State after 15 years of civil war and another 15 of turmoil. Discrediting this political class is the easiest part of this revolt.

The other part of the Iceberg, its core base, is much more tenuous and harder to dislodge. That component is made up of Hezbollah, an Iranian-trained, backed, and financed militia that takes its order from the Mullahs in Tehran and its marching orders from Qassim Sulaimani, not the Lebanese people. A fall of the current Lebanese government would be a deadly blow to Hezbollah as it would lose the screen through which it operates. The decoy of the official State and institutions is a much-needed cover for this US-labeled terror group accused of narco-trafficking and money-laundering on a global scale. This group cannot deal with the international institutions that Lebanon needs urgently such as the U.N., IMF, World Bank and the EU, as well as, with regional powers such as Egypt, and the GCC countries. The so-called ‘protector’ of Lebanon has finally become its tormentor.

Hezbollah is at an impasse and not the youth in the streets of Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Tyre and other cities and towns. It could support the current government and lose its reputational credit with a crippled economy and a discredited government, or it could find a half-way solution. The half-way solution would be to get rid of the political class -in its entirety- and bring on a new team of decent, proficient, and national figures with no ties to the sectarian parties of Lebanon. This would get the country back on its feet, and the issue of Iranian influence in Lebanon onto the back burner till a compromise between the US administration and Iran is reached in the coming years. In the meantime, the patient namely, Lebanon would be out of the ICU and onto a slow but hopeful recovery. When the economy is nursed back into normalcy,

Lebanon is rapidly sliding into a Venezuelan scenario. The eruption of spontaneous protests that have been prompted by a simmering public anger were looming on the horizon since the middle of 2018, if not much earlier. The reason is simple: a kleptomaniac ruling class protected by an Iranian militia are hardly a good recipe for investments and prosperity.

Current legitimate anger at the deteriorating economic conditions has been at the genesis of the latest street outrage. A ballooning c.$100 bln public debt, a world-record deficit, a c.40% unemployment level, a decades-long malfunctioning power grid and public services, and the lack of any glimmer of hope for an entire nation after almost 15 years of a fiercely fought civil war and another 15 of a fake after war truce, have finally come to fruition.

The current scenario is presently caused by the lack of ‘tricks’ & ‘treats’ that an isolated, coffers-depleted government can no more offer to the unemployed, and over-frustrated masses. Panem et Circenses no more!.

Between the late 1990s and 2005 the so-called postwar miracle of Lebanon was nothing, but an open reconstruction site dominated by newly moneyed Oligarchs and carpetbaggers who were protected by Syria with the acquiesce of the Arab League, and the complicit approval of the Western world. Still, as long as crumbs and leftovers were trickling down to the middle and lower classes via handouts, corruption and a racket in public contracts, the average Lebanese was forgiving of its blood-sucking ruling elite.

Today, the ruling elite’s practices have not changed but the economic landscape has been transformed beyond recognition, and way above the intellectual grasp of its local politicos. The ruling junta has continued to deplete the coffers of the government through corruption and State largess while begging the Arab world and the European powers particularly, France, to continue to support its decaying economic model with inflated debts and donations. Add to that, the Lebanese Diaspora which was sending annual remittances at the tune of c. $7 bln per annum. These were deposited in Lebanese banks, who in turn ‘invested’ them in TBs at phenomenal rates. The Ponzi scheme was perfect. The government secured its budget and, through it, the allotment of each sect and factions. The banks made more money than their Wall Street peers, and depositors, yes depositors, were happy to live off the interest income, fueled by this artificial scheme of ‘sovereign’ debt which held the crumbing edifice. This edifice can hold a little more, but we reckon, not too long.

Iran and Syria, both isolated by the international banking system, have been foraging Lebanon’s market for US banknotes. Lebanon’s lack of serious reforms has rendered the European lenders more suspicious and demanding of real changes and guarantees. The drastic drop in oil prices and the cold War between the unofficial Lebanon (Hezbollah) and the official Arab regimes have brought down donations and remittances from the Gulf to abysmal levels. The Central Bank has pulled the last ‘rabbit’ from its magical hat by luring millions of deposits at junk bond rates to plug the holes of a sinking vessel. Notwithstanding, the government ignored all these regional and international developments and kept on ploughing its way through the carcass of a depleted State and the emptied pockets of its population.

Unfortunately, like in Venezuela, (or in HK) this government will survive the latest pristine outburst in popular anger. The ruling military militia and the official armed forces will jointly hold the glue of this degraded Sphinx despite popular demands to the contrary. None of the political parties will jump ship, not because of any other reason except their survival instinct. A locked zoo is better than an open field for large mammals used to being hand fed. Staying in the government is safer, and till recently,

This article is few weeks late. Maybe it took that much time to realize the facts, to intelligently react to them and to think about a different outcome to the circumstances that prevailed and that are still unfolding ever since.

A question has been haunting our analysis: what if, in the aftermath of the attack on Aramco’s facilities by Iran, Saudi stated its firm intention to get the oil flowing back but also said, that it did not have a definitive timeline for restoring such capacity? A rational, well prepared statement that explains that in light of the unparalleled nature of the attack and of the damages caused, the engineering team at Aramco now facing an unprecedented situation, would be grappling with the means and the time required to conduct and complete the repairs.

One could assume that oil prices would immediately hit the ceiling (way past $100/barrel), and so would gold and silver. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would tumble few hundred points, the boom in the US economy would be dented along with the carefree attitude of Trump towards the 2020 elections, and Iran would be squarely blamed for having caused a lasting havoc across the globe. All speculative guessing of course, but not so much off course!

The Iranian attack would take such a global proportion that even the Saudis themselves could never have dreamt of. Iran would become an international pariah overnight. Not only over the issues of nuclear proliferation and the exporting of terrorism, but for causing the savings of the world’s population to shrink due to a higher fuel & gas bill at the beginning of winter. Only the looney climate warriors would be happily protesting in the squares of Western capitals, to denounce the evils of oil dependency. Iranians would not be able to blame the West this time or the Arabs for a change or Israel for that matter. Since the attacks were a deliberate, unprovoked, act of war against a sovereign nation. Zarif would be derided in international forums for playing victim of a US-led conspiracy, as he usually does, the Mullahs’ hypocrisy for seeking good rapports with the West would be exposed and, the IRGC would become even more vulnerable to practical sanctions.

In this scenario, where the Saudis take their time to repair Aramco’s facilities, Trump would be caught between an edgy rock and a very hard place. Committing boots on the ground for a new Middle East military adventure would cause him to break a cardinal promise of his 2016 campaign, as well as, his strong personal beliefs. He has argued for an end to all US military interventions unless the direct security interests of the US were threatened. Sending troops to fight (not merely watch as they actually are) or launching a retaliatory attack would get the US into another unpredictable armed conflict. That was never in Mr. Trump’s plans. However, doing nothing and watching oil prices skyrocketing, the stock market crashing, unemployment rapidly rising, tariff wars becoming futile and costly, and a recession seeping in at a galloping speed, are not scenarios of choice for a President who is desperately seeking re-election. Trump would be forced to take some retaliatory measures to comfort his allies (does he really see them as such?) and punish his enemies (does he consider anyone to be such apart from the US liberal media?).  He would have, at minimum, to do something say damage or sabotage the oil refinery in Abadan and bring the Iranian transport sector and with it the country, to a halt. Launch a cyber-attack on Iranian drone installations and its air force to ground their capacity, or maybe other similar actions that would bring stability to the region but from a position of strength rather than one of evasion. And in all events, he would have to engage somehow to avert a global financial crisis and, an assured loss in the 2020 elections should the US economic miracle hit a serious speed bump.

Pres. Trump has blinked first and, not on one occasion, with the cunning Mullahs of Tehran. Not that the US cannot wipe out the Iranian Navy, Army and Air Force in one afternoon while still making it on time to watch the Sunday football game. However, Trump is not a calculating tactician, or a Master of chessboard strategy but rather an ‘off-the-cuff’ personality. He has no political experience, and no military background. He seems naturally averse to using military force in foreign lands.  What makes him different from Obama in terms of US policy in the Middle East is that he is staunchly opposed to Iran gaining nuclear status. Surely, he is supportive of Israel and more so of the Jewish votes in 2020. He is wary of Erdogan and has kept a healthy distance from Turkey as it gets closer and closer to Russia. He finally has made grand, but so far, empty gestures towards the security of the Arab Gulf States after extorting $ billions in defense contracts and other pledges from their rulers.

Trump’s obsession with his 2020 reelection campaign will preclude him from taking any strong action against Iran that might lead to an escalation which, could morph into another Gulf war. Unlike his predecessors, Trump is poorly advised in this area. The absence of experienced hands such as former Defense Secretary Mattis and former NSA John Bolton, is a serious handicap. While Secretary of State Pompeo has been acting with dexterity on many fronts, he cannot handle all world issues at once, being the only adult left in the room. Trump is also at odds with the Europeans, including the UK, when it comes to Iran. He has not played his hand with tact when it came to extract the US from the Nuclear Deal. He could have proposed a gradual withdrawal scheme, a crescendo of penalties that could culminate into a termination, all in concert with allies. However, his unilateral decision is now biting him in the face as he finds himself isolated by the EU on the Iran issue. His trade war with China is of no help in this instance, as the latter grows closer to Iran and could be of great support in times of sanctions and embargoes. In the meantime, Putin is left to roam the Middle East with impunity from Syria to Saudi and from Iran to Istanbul. He is the undisputed ‘strong man’ of the hour and the go-to-person in dire times. Turkey, Israel, Iran and soon Saudi will turn to Putin to buy defense shields and to seek a security protocol that would preserve regional peace and stability. The US will have the privilege to watch from afar as its influence and power dwindle in one of the world’s most resource-rich regions. The many US battleships, vessels and airplanes positioned in the Arabian Gulf since the 1990s, would remain safe, but not the stature of the country bearing their flags.

It happens that the Arab Gulf States are less popular in the US Congress as they used to be. Especially, with the demonizing campaign of Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Add to that, the astute portraying by the anti-Trump media and Iran's friends of the Yemeni conflict. The world -from the UN to CNN- insists on portraying this conflict as an aggression by Saudi and the UAE against Yemen, when in reality it is a vicious proxy war waged by Iran against the Gulf nations using Houthis rebels as cannon fodder. So, Trump has less support and leeway to fly to Saudi’s rescue by launching a blitzkrieg against Iran in retaliation of its recent attack on the Aramco facilities. Harsh words of condemnations will follow, but little else.

In the final analysis, Trump will do nothing till after the 2020 elections, if at all. In the meantime, Iran will grow bolder, and the Gulf Arab States will grow wary and actively solicit new protectors by wooing Russia and China through oil and defense contracts as a means to fend off further Iranian aggression.

The Gulf Arab States in the presence of an uncommitted Pres.

The Southern Border of Lebanon remained quiet for 13 years till today. The last conflagration broke out in 2006 and disaster befell the land of the Cedars despite claims to the contrary. The infrastructure was wrecked, villages bombed for days on end, hundreds of thousands of people displaced, and the economy suffered badly. In terms of victory, neither Israel nor Lebanon gained an inch from each other’s territory. How victory was claimed, remains an insult to one’s intelligence.

This time, Hezbollah retaliated to an alleged Israeli drone attack on the Southern Suburb of Beirut last week, by firing Russian-made, anti-tank missiles into an army base in Northern Israel, killing and injuring no one. The Israeli drone attack of the previous week on the Shi'a populated enclave of Beirut was also casualty-free. Coincidence, fate or good omen, in all events, both attack and retaliation did not cause any deaths on either side of this simmering conflict.

Israeli elections are due in almost 3 weeks and the body politics of Israel is busy preparing them. Any military escalation will play into the hands of current PM Netanyahu. Israelis of all political stripes and tendencies are one with their armed forces in war times as they form its core, literally. Indeed, at such moments the government in charge and the army will be given full support even by their fiercest critics in peacetime. So, there is no advantage for waging a war at this stage, unless Iran through its proxies, is rooting for Netanyahu to win yet another mandate. What Israel has been conducting for the past years i.e., a systematic destruction of all Iranian-made, precision-guided missiles destined to fall on Israeli soil and population, will continue unabated. This stratagem will not be rescinded, canceled or even slowed down. If anything, it will go on at a more vigorous pace. This low intensity war has been waged in Syria for its majority, but Iraq and Lebanon have been brought-in lately.  With Iran aiming to intensify its pressure on the US, since the latter’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal, Israel had to be threatened in a serious fashion. For that, the theater of operations needed expansion for maximum effect. The routes from Iran to Iraq to Syria, to Lebanon had to be multiplied and the means including, covert schemes, increased in terms of efficiency and speed. Conversely, Israel’s goal of maintaining its strategic military edge over its foes required and, will continue to require, a relentless search and destroy campaign. For this specific campaign, Israel has the overt support of the US and the covert consent of Russia. This is not pleasing to Iran, but it can do little to change this geopolitical reality for the time being.

In Lebanon the situation is precarious. The government is hanging by a thread, whilst suffering from severe disagreements on how to run a failed State, under the Holy guidance of Hezbollah. Within this bizarre mix of political factions, the issues of sectarianism, deep-rooted corruption, and the presidential ambitions of some, have been too much even for the most able of hands in Beirut’s favorite blood sport of governance. Hezbollah is dictating its will on a kleptomaniac and feeble political class in exchange for keeping such corrupt bunch in a state of ‘nominal’ authority. All powers of the executive branch are beholden to it, the army is impotent in the face of its better-armed militia force, and parliament is totally under its control. However, with all this might the country is breaking at the seams. The economy is in shambles, unemployment is almost at 30%, the infrastructure is decaying, banks are being targeted by the US for assisting and facilitating Hezbollah’s terrorist activities, there are 300,000 Palestinian and 1.5 million Syrian refugees in a country of 4.5 million, and the national debt stands reportedly at $100 bln. Another disastrous war with Israel is not recommended for a country in Lebanon’s posit...

The confrontations that Iran is seeking in the Gulf and which include repeated attacks on civilian targets such as commercial oil tankers, Abha airport and, the ARAMCO oil installations in Saudi, are all diplomatic missives addressed to the Trump administration. Strongly-worded missives notwithstanding, but still diplomatic in their codes and frequencies. They are short of a full military escalation and yet aggressive enough to almost attain the status of an act of war. Carl Von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, who famously said that “War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means” would have been delighted, no doubt.

These confrontations between Iran on one side and, the US (and its Arab allies in the back) on the other, are not planned to cause serious harm but are fully intended to bring about serious dialogue. Iran sounds even more outraged after each attack, and seems to be looking for the perpetrators as if  finding it hard to locate them. Its policy is as absurd as it is silly and obvious to the naked eyes, without the need for surveillance or drones recording every wave in the world’ oil artery. Such shenanigans are aimed at the local audience, at the followers of the Ayatollah, and at the millions of dependents on State handouts. It is also aimed at the few dissidents to dissuade them from any act of rebellion, even the most peaceful ones, at a time when the ‘Great Nation’ is under sanctions and potential attacks from the ‘Great Satan’.

Like it or not, post-revolutionary Iran has defied and defined all US administrations since Pres. Jimmy Carter. The ‘bazaar diplomacy’ usually tests a US President’s mettle early on in his mandate and, readjusts its attitude accordingly. Like a (Persian) cat who wants to explore the extent of a watchdog’s reaction and the reach if its bite. If the dog only barks, even if loudly, the cat will harass it all the way till it gets tired, bored or else. If the dog bites or comes even close to actually inflicting serious harm, the cat immediately recoils, retracts and waits for the dog to be taken off duty, and replaced by a new one.

This ‘bazar diplomacy’ has not wavered by an inch since 1978 and the US reaction has not disappointed in its predictability.

Carter was weak and got hammered after the failed rescue operation to free the US hostages who were held in captivity for 444 days at the US Embassy in Tehran.  Reagan was boastful at first before being severally humbled by the suicide bombings of the US Embassy in Beirut and the Marines’ Barracks in 1983. Then, he got entangled in the scandalous Iran-Contra affair who saw his very same administration selling arms to the backer of the US hostage-takers in Beirut, namely, Iran. Bush senior was a one-term President whose policies have greatly assisted Iran in cutting Saddam to size during the First Gulf War. Clinton applied a dual containment policy on both Iran and Iraq, so his Presidency counts as a recess in the Iran - US relationship. Bush junior invaded Afghanistan and waged the Second Gulf War unintentionally (but not unpredictably) offering Iran a dual prize: getting rid of the Taliban in the South and of Saddam in the North, in one go! Iran seized the unique occasion to expand its dominion over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Yemen. But still the US -via the newly elected President- had more goodies in store for the Mullahs-backed regime. Indeed, Obama Hussein gave Iran few billions in cash and lifted all major economic sanctions for next to nothing. Ah, yes he got an agreement (not worth the paper written on it) from Iran to delay (not to scrap) its nuclear (weapons) program.

Now comes Trump's turn. Will he apply the principles taught in the chapters of the “Art of the Deal” or those in the “Art of War”? I will wager on his strong inclination to doing deals and bet on his legitimate aversion for wars,