The confrontations that Iran is seeking in the Gulf and which include repeated attacks on civilian targets such as commercial oil tankers, Abha airport and, the ARAMCO oil installations in Saudi, are all diplomatic missives addressed to the Trump administration. Strongly-worded missives notwithstanding, but still diplomatic in their codes and frequencies. They are short of a full military escalation and yet aggressive enough to almost attain the status of an act of war. Carl Von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, who famously said that “War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means” would have been delighted, no doubt.

These confrontations between Iran on one side and, the US (and its Arab allies in the back) on the other, are not planned to cause serious harm but are fully intended to bring about serious dialogue. Iran sounds even more outraged after each attack, and seems to be looking for the perpetrators as if  finding it hard to locate them. Its policy is as absurd as it is silly and obvious to the naked eyes, without the need for surveillance or drones recording every wave in the world’ oil artery. Such shenanigans are aimed at the local audience, at the followers of the Ayatollah, and at the millions of dependents on State handouts. It is also aimed at the few dissidents to dissuade them from any act of rebellion, even the most peaceful ones, at a time when the ‘Great Nation’ is under sanctions and potential attacks from the ‘Great Satan’.

Like it or not, post-revolutionary Iran has defied and defined all US administrations since Pres. Jimmy Carter. The ‘bazaar diplomacy’ usually tests a US President’s mettle early on in his mandate and, readjusts its attitude accordingly. Like a (Persian) cat who wants to explore the extent of a watchdog’s reaction and the reach if its bite. If the dog only barks, even if loudly, the cat will harass it all the way till it gets tired, bored or else. If the dog bites or comes even close to actually inflicting serious harm, the cat immediately recoils, retracts and waits for the dog to be taken off duty, and replaced by a new one.

This ‘bazar diplomacy’ has not wavered by an inch since 1978 and the US reaction has not disappointed in its predictability.

Carter was weak and got hammered after the failed rescue operation to free the US hostages who were held in captivity for 444 days at the US Embassy in Tehran.  Reagan was boastful at first before being severally humbled by the suicide bombings of the US Embassy in Beirut and the Marines’ Barracks in 1983. Then, he got entangled in the scandalous Iran-Contra affair who saw his very same administration selling arms to the backer of the US hostage-takers in Beirut, namely, Iran. Bush senior was a one-term President whose policies have greatly assisted Iran in cutting Saddam to size during the First Gulf War. Clinton applied a dual containment policy on both Iran and Iraq, so his Presidency counts as a recess in the Iran - US relationship. Bush junior invaded Afghanistan and waged the Second Gulf War unintentionally (but not unpredictably) offering Iran a dual prize: getting rid of the Taliban in the South and of Saddam in the North, in one go! Iran seized the unique occasion to expand its dominion over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Yemen. But still the US -via the newly elected President- had more goodies in store for the Mullahs-backed regime. Indeed, Obama Hussein gave Iran few billions in cash and lifted all major economic sanctions for next to nothing. Ah, yes he got an agreement (not worth the paper written on it) from Iran to delay (not to scrap) its nuclear (weapons) program.

Now comes Trump's turn. Will he apply the principles taught in the chapters of the “Art of the Deal” or those in the “Art of War”? I will wager on his strong inclination to doing deals and bet on his legitimate aversion for wars,