The Southern Border of Lebanon remained quiet for 13 years till today. The last conflagration broke out in 2006 and disaster befell the land of the Cedars despite claims to the contrary. The infrastructure was wrecked, villages bombed for days on end, hundreds of thousands of people displaced, and the economy suffered badly. In terms of victory, neither Israel nor Lebanon gained an inch from each other’s territory. How victory was claimed, remains an insult to one’s intelligence.

This time, Hezbollah retaliated to an alleged Israeli drone attack on the Southern Suburb of Beirut last week, by firing Russian-made, anti-tank missiles into an army base in Northern Israel, killing and injuring no one. The Israeli drone attack of the previous week on the Shi'a populated enclave of Beirut was also casualty-free. Coincidence, fate or good omen, in all events, both attack and retaliation did not cause any deaths on either side of this simmering conflict.

Israeli elections are due in almost 3 weeks and the body politics of Israel is busy preparing them. Any military escalation will play into the hands of current PM Netanyahu. Israelis of all political stripes and tendencies are one with their armed forces in war times as they form its core, literally. Indeed, at such moments the government in charge and the army will be given full support even by their fiercest critics in peacetime. So, there is no advantage for waging a war at this stage, unless Iran through its proxies, is rooting for Netanyahu to win yet another mandate. What Israel has been conducting for the past years i.e., a systematic destruction of all Iranian-made, precision-guided missiles destined to fall on Israeli soil and population, will continue unabated. This stratagem will not be rescinded, canceled or even slowed down. If anything, it will go on at a more vigorous pace. This low intensity war has been waged in Syria for its majority, but Iraq and Lebanon have been brought-in lately.  With Iran aiming to intensify its pressure on the US, since the latter’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal, Israel had to be threatened in a serious fashion. For that, the theater of operations needed expansion for maximum effect. The routes from Iran to Iraq to Syria, to Lebanon had to be multiplied and the means including, covert schemes, increased in terms of efficiency and speed. Conversely, Israel’s goal of maintaining its strategic military edge over its foes required and, will continue to require, a relentless search and destroy campaign. For this specific campaign, Israel has the overt support of the US and the covert consent of Russia. This is not pleasing to Iran, but it can do little to change this geopolitical reality for the time being.

In Lebanon the situation is precarious. The government is hanging by a thread, whilst suffering from severe disagreements on how to run a failed State, under the Holy guidance of Hezbollah. Within this bizarre mix of political factions, the issues of sectarianism, deep-rooted corruption, and the presidential ambitions of some, have been too much even for the most able of hands in Beirut’s favorite blood sport of governance. Hezbollah is dictating its will on a kleptomaniac and feeble political class in exchange for keeping such corrupt bunch in a state of ‘nominal’ authority. All powers of the executive branch are beholden to it, the army is impotent in the face of its better-armed militia force, and parliament is totally under its control. However, with all this might the country is breaking at the seams. The economy is in shambles, unemployment is almost at 30%, the infrastructure is decaying, banks are being targeted by the US for assisting and facilitating Hezbollah’s terrorist activities, there are 300,000 Palestinian and 1.5 million Syrian refugees in a country of 4.5 million, and the national debt stands reportedly at $100 bln. Another disastrous war with Israel is not recommended for a country in Lebanon’s posit...