Pres. Trump has blinked first and, not on one occasion, with the cunning Mullahs of Tehran. Not that the US cannot wipe out the Iranian Navy, Army and Air Force in one afternoon while still making it on time to watch the Sunday football game. However, Trump is not a calculating tactician, or a Master of chessboard strategy but rather an ‘off-the-cuff’ personality. He has no political experience, and no military background. He seems naturally averse to using military force in foreign lands.  What makes him different from Obama in terms of US policy in the Middle East is that he is staunchly opposed to Iran gaining nuclear status. Surely, he is supportive of Israel and more so of the Jewish votes in 2020. He is wary of Erdogan and has kept a healthy distance from Turkey as it gets closer and closer to Russia. He finally has made grand, but so far, empty gestures towards the security of the Arab Gulf States after extorting $ billions in defense contracts and other pledges from their rulers.

Trump’s obsession with his 2020 reelection campaign will preclude him from taking any strong action against Iran that might lead to an escalation which, could morph into another Gulf war. Unlike his predecessors, Trump is poorly advised in this area. The absence of experienced hands such as former Defense Secretary Mattis and former NSA John Bolton, is a serious handicap. While Secretary of State Pompeo has been acting with dexterity on many fronts, he cannot handle all world issues at once, being the only adult left in the room. Trump is also at odds with the Europeans, including the UK, when it comes to Iran. He has not played his hand with tact when it came to extract the US from the Nuclear Deal. He could have proposed a gradual withdrawal scheme, a crescendo of penalties that could culminate into a termination, all in concert with allies. However, his unilateral decision is now biting him in the face as he finds himself isolated by the EU on the Iran issue. His trade war with China is of no help in this instance, as the latter grows closer to Iran and could be of great support in times of sanctions and embargoes. In the meantime, Putin is left to roam the Middle East with impunity from Syria to Saudi and from Iran to Istanbul. He is the undisputed ‘strong man’ of the hour and the go-to-person in dire times. Turkey, Israel, Iran and soon Saudi will turn to Putin to buy defense shields and to seek a security protocol that would preserve regional peace and stability. The US will have the privilege to watch from afar as its influence and power dwindle in one of the world’s most resource-rich regions. The many US battleships, vessels and airplanes positioned in the Arabian Gulf since the 1990s, would remain safe, but not the stature of the country bearing their flags.

It happens that the Arab Gulf States are less popular in the US Congress as they used to be. Especially, with the demonizing campaign of Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Add to that, the astute portraying by the anti-Trump media and Iran's friends of the Yemeni conflict. The world -from the UN to CNN- insists on portraying this conflict as an aggression by Saudi and the UAE against Yemen, when in reality it is a vicious proxy war waged by Iran against the Gulf nations using Houthis rebels as cannon fodder. So, Trump has less support and leeway to fly to Saudi’s rescue by launching a blitzkrieg against Iran in retaliation of its recent attack on the Aramco facilities. Harsh words of condemnations will follow, but little else.

In the final analysis, Trump will do nothing till after the 2020 elections, if at all. In the meantime, Iran will grow bolder, and the Gulf Arab States will grow wary and actively solicit new protectors by wooing Russia and China through oil and defense contracts as a means to fend off further Iranian aggression.

The Gulf Arab States in the presence of an uncommitted Pres.