Forever Saturday

Serena and Matt react to the Big Ten's apparently impending addition of USC and UCLA and talk about what it means for the Big Ten (from alignment to scheduling to exposure to recruiting), whether the Pac-12 has any path to viability, and whether megaconferences are coming (or are already here)

In a grab-bag/mailbag episode, Serena and Matt discuss the Big Ten's likely move to a division-less structure, assess the options for TV partners (what would it mean to cut off ESPN? what about some streaming-only games?), briefly touch on Michigan's kind-of-fake budget, and share their thoughts on what Michigan should do about Bo and the continued embarrassing remarks from within the athletic department.

• Matt and Serena pat themselves on the back for being generally right about how it appears the Big Ten is going to handle re-alignment 
  • No word on the Championship Game structure yet 
• What's the Big Ten going to do with the TV contract? 
  • Would you lock the conference in for decades right now? Probably not
  • CBS might be desperate to retain college football now that it lost the SEC, if it outbids ESPN, do you close the door on ESPN entirely? 
    • Does that hurt you for the CFP?
    • Do you lose out a lot on highlights, College Gameday appearances, etc.? 
• The Michigan Athletic Department's budget is fake, because all athletic department budgets are fake 
• Warde Manuel's recent comments about Bo: yikes 
  • Take down the statute and re-name the hall (obviously) 
  • If we won't get rid of all the Bo stans, the least they can do is shut up and stop valorizing the guy 
  • How do we work through our continued support of Michigan and Michigan athletics? 
  • Michigan is so much more to us than football or athletics 
  • Now more than ever we can support the players directly, so withdrawing our support mostly harms innocent people 
    • Is that maybe rationalization? Sure, but it's probably still true 

For the numbers nerds, Matt and Serena run through an attempted calculation of how much Michigan's roster is worth in "NIL" money given Ryan Day's comments and James Franklin's response, then briefly touch on Michigan's announced NIL collective and the C.J. Carr commitment fallout.

• Ryan Day says it will cost $13M to keep Ohio State's roster intact 
• Day also says that the going rate for QBs is around $2M, and top end edge talent and OTs are around $1M 
• That seems in line with the whispers that we've heard about what top end QBs have gotten 
• James Franklin responds and says it will cost "more" than the numbers we've heard 
• What does the actual number look like for Michigan's roster?
• We try to extrapolate based on the (admittedly few) data points we have to determine what the going rate is, then compare to Ohio State
• Matt tries to index the value of every position on the roster to the QB position (the position we have the most data about) 
• One of the difficult issues is deciding when a player transitions over from getting paid on potential vs. paid on production 
• We talk about the "Champion's Circle" NIL collective launched by Valiant 
• C.J. Carr's commitment to ND (are we happy? No. Can we blame him? Also no.) 

Serena and Matt do the Fox/ESPN thing and draft the best Big Ten games of 2022 to see who can come up with a more watchable schedule for the season overall, then discuss the implications of the Big Ten apparently taking down its schedules for 2023 and beyond.

Ground rules: 

• We flip a coin -- winner gets to draft first and they select a week (i.e. - Week 13, the week of Michigan/OSU) to get the first game picked 
• Second person has to pick a consolation game in the same week as the person who gets to pick first
• We alternate and see who ends up with the better schedule 
• Serena is a closet Penn State fan 
• Serena's schedule depends a lot on whether Purdue remains fun
• The Big Ten West merry-go-round is kinda meh 
• Nebraska could really make things more interesting
• Who ends up with the better schedule? We'll let the people decide

The Big Ten takes down its future schedules, signaling a change in alignment and/or scheduling is coming sooner rather than later.  

• We have our preferences, but they will inevitably find a way to mess this up
• Serena is mad about the scheduling changing right when OSU gets stuck with Wisconsin for a half-decade 

Serena and Matt discuss what the Big Ten would look like if it were to ditch divisions (which is where the major conferences seem to be headed), who Michigan should be locked in with as "rivals," what realignment would mean for the conference title game and The Game itself, and which college football players/coaches we'd wake up at 4:45 a.m. for just to slander.

• The NCAA says goodbye to divisions 
• What might a division-less Big Ten look like? 
• Pods? 
• Matt proposes a system of locked-in rivals 
  • One thing we can't have is Michigan getting OSU/PSU/MSU and functionally guaranteeing itself the hardest schedule in the conference always. 
  • We're supposed to be making it better, not worse. 
• The Big Ten Championship Game is a mess 
  • We could get a repeat of "The Game" in the next week 
  • Does it cheapen "The Game?" 
• Who would you wake up at 4:45 am to slander? 
  • Its not slander if its true!! 
• Early betting lines on Michigan's games 

Serena and Matt try to understand why the recent NIL (or "NIL") happenings feel different and kind of uncomfortable in some ways, debate whether there are viable adjustments that can be made within the current structure, and discuss where things might be headed as the current trajectory of college sports collides with Title IX and other issues.

• Jordan Addison transferring from Pitt was triggering for all of us.
• About a third of college basketball players and a fifth of college football players entered the transfer portal this year.
• We've also seen 7 all-first-team Power 5 or All-American players enter the portal in the last year.
• Anyone who says "this has always happened" is wrong -- maybe at the recruiting stage, but this level of poaching from active rosters is new. 
• As always, Twitter is not the best place for nuanced conversations. 
• A lot of the conversation is very "if you don't like the changes to the sport, then leave" and both Matt and Serena think this approach is very shortsighted. 
  • It is no way to run a sport to act like that sport is inevitably going to maintain its popularity. 
  • It seems possible to us (though unlikely) that missteps at this stage could be bad for the overall popularity of the sport in a way that's worse for everyone because it can shrink the size of the pie. If you alienate fans, the money could dry up in a way that the players (and the fans) end up worse off overall. 
• Can you shut the transfer door? 
  • There isn't a sport in America that doesn't have rules or restrictions about how and when you can move teams. Would it be the worst thing if you went back to requiring players to sit out? 
  • In professional settings those restrains are bargained for, which makes them more fair than the NCAA dictating these changes from on high.
  • Is it even conscionable to change these rules now? 
• Can you curb NIL? 
  • Matt and Serena both think the horse has left that barn on this one and that NCAA efforts to turn the NIL faucet off are futile. 
• Collective bargaining seems to be the only way forward (they might try to resolve it by individual contract, but unclear if that will work) 
  • But even a CBA has problems -- each sport probably has to bargain separately.
  • For sports like hockey, are there even enough profitable teams that schools like Michigan will have opponents? Will compensated players be playing against de facto club teams?
• Does whether the players continue to be students impact the product? 
  • For Serena, the players continuing to be tied to the university and the community at large is part of the appeal. 
  • Can you get the schools to agree to require that as part of a CBA? 
  • Does Title IX even allow this type of arrangement? There are more questions than answers.
• Gene Smith's proposal for the CFP to act as the governing body of college football -- this is an alternative potential structure that could work but also needs a lot of fleshing out and alignment.

After covering all the painful memories last week, Serena and Matt each share their most joyous/euphoric/exhilarating Michigan football wins (with some debate at the top), then briefly discuss the transfer portal pickup of Cam Goode and react to some, uh, questionable early-top-25 rankings that were released this week.

To the good stuff:

• Had to cover the flip side after subjecting everybody to all the depressing memories in our last episode
• The frontrunners:
  • 2021 Ohio State (not much detail needed here) -- Matt's #1
  • 2011 Notre Dame -- Serena's #1, and the game that made her (a student at the time) really fall in love with Michigan/college football
  • A few candidates at #3, including a couple Michigan State games (one of which you might not expect) and '97 Ohio State given the obvious Big Ten/national title/Heisman implications
• These are the games that get you hooked (although if you're old like Matt, that may have happened even earlier)
• Other topics:
  • The addition of Cam Goode from UCF will be extremely helpful for rotational/depth purposes on the interior D-line
  • A few early top 25 rankings came out this week, with Michigan a consensus bottom-half-of-the-top-10 team -- does this seem right?
  • In non-Michigan observations, every one of these rankings has at least one top-10 team that's extremely iffy -- we debate whether Texas, USC or Michigan State is the most/least believable

In the aftermath of Michigan's hockey's devastating overtime loss in the Frozen Four, Matt and Serena debate the most painful Michigan football losses in recent memory (there are plenty to choose from!), decide what we'd probably pick if we *weren't* Michigan fans, and then touch on a few interesting post-spring comments from Jim Harbaugh.

We can't help but re-traumatize ourselves after Michigan Hockey's heartbreaking loss in the Frozen Four, so we naturally drifted to football comps. Matt and Serena identify our most painful Michigan Football losses:

• Recapping the hockey loss in the Frozen Four
  • Michigan has had almost impossibly bad luck in overtime Frozen Four games (or games to go to the Frozen Four) 
• Obvious frontrunners on the football side: 
  • 2006 OSU - Matt's Number one. A de facto semi final game in what was perhaps the last time Michigan was a true national championship contender. 
  • 2016 OSU
  • 2018 OSU  - Serena (perhaps controversially) takes 2018 over 2016.  
  • 2015 MSU 
• Honorable Mentions: 
  • 2007 App State 
  • 2000 Northwestern 
  • 2003 Iowa/Oregon  
• Spring Football Notes 
  • JJ Back!! 
  • An emergence at DE 
  • A crowded room and developments at safety 

Serena and Matt revisit the less-compelling-than-it-could-have-been spring game, discuss the most exciting/surprising/otherwise interesting developments, debate the spectacular-ness of the various post-TD celebrations, and break out a new segment on "the most Michigan moment of the game"

Serena and Matt break down the Big Ten coaches alignment chart and debate the chaoticness of Jim Harbaugh, the evilness of James Franklin, the milquetoast-ness of Paul Chryst, etc., before revisiting an appropriately frustrating ending for Michigan basketball and an emotional rollercoaster for Michigan hockey en route to the Frozen Four.

• Check @ForeverSatPod on Twitter to take a look at the alignment chart so that you can keep track of where we have put everyone 
• Lawful Good 
  • No one is lawful good, though Serena argues for Paul Chryst 
• Lawful Neutral
  • Schiano 
  • Bielema 
• Lawful Evil
  • Fitzgerald 
  • Ferentz 
  • Allen
• Neutral Good
  • Ryan Day 
  • Mel Tucker
  • Don't say we're too hard on our rivals 
• True Neutral
  • Paul Chryst 
• Neutral Evil
  • James Franklin, or is it Frames Janklin? 
• Chaotic Good
  • Jim Harbaugh
  • Jeff Brohm 
• Chaotic Neutral
  • PJ Fleck
• Chaotic Evil
  • Scott Frost 
  • Mike Locksley 
• Michigan Basketball loses to Villanova in the Sweet 16
  • They are who we thought they were: talented and deeply frustrating 
  • The misses at the rim were killers 
  • Was the season a disappointment? 
• Michigan Hockey advances to the Frozen Four
  • Game against Quinnipiac was on cruise control until it wasn't 
  • Serena fixed the juju 
  • Is the season a success no matter what happens in the Frozen Four?