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In this episode of Parallax Views, former senior CIA analyst and national security expert Paul R. Pillar returns to break down his latest article, “Trump’s use and misuse of Iran intel,” published in Responsible Statecraft. We explore how the Trump administration clashed with U.S. intelligence threat assessments over Iran, the problem with threat exaggeration/threat inflation, and Trump's attempt shape public perception of the Iranian nuclear threat—and how these strategies may backfire on both Trump and the U.S. in the future.

Pillar explains that within a single week, President Trump clashed with U.S. intelligence assessments on Iran in two contradictory ways—first by dismissing the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and the intelligence community’s conclusion that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, and then by rejecting internal Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessments suggesting that U.S. airstrikes had only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months. In both cases, Trump disregarded intelligence that didn’t serve his political narrative. Rather than responding to sober analysis, he sought to craft a storyline in which he faced down an imminent threat and eliminated it through decisive military action—regardless of what the intelligence actually showed. And now, Trump is going to be left in a conundrum if the DIA assessments are correct and Iran seeks to build nuclear weapons in the course of his term, especially after having declared that the capabilities had been "totally obliterated" with the strikes on Fordow and other Iranian nuclear sites.

Topics discussed include:

How intelligence cherry-picking in this case echoes the WMD fiasco in Iraq

The need for discourse about Iran's intentions vs. its capabilities

Why Trump’s narrative of “obliteration” may put him in a political bind if Iran’s nuclear capability proves resilient

The high likelihood that U.S. and Israeli strikes will accelerate Iran’s nuclear pursuits, rather than deter them

The crucial distinction between capabilities and intentions in intelligence analysis—and why the latter is so easily politicized

The enduring damage of the Right’s “mad mullahs” myth, which portrays Iran as irrational and suicidal, undermining effective policy and accurate assessments

How Israel’s selective intelligence leaks are used to pressure U.S. policymakers into military escalation

We also examine the fallout for the IAEA’s monitoring capabilities; arch-neocon Robert Kagan's belief that a war with Iran is foolish because 1.) Iran is not a threat to the U.S., and 2.) it could empower authoritarian power grabs in the U.S. domestically by the administration; and more.

This is a vital conversation for anyone concerned about U.S. foreign policy, Middle East strategy, national security, and the future of intelligence integrity.