Future Engineering Bets

What really happens when an EV battery fails, and are we writing off valuable batteries and vehicles too quickly?

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, Fred Warner and Michael Hague-Morgan of Autocraft Solutions Group compare perspectives on the future of EV battery repair, recycling and the risks facing owners as more electric vehicles move out of warranty.

Drawing on Autocraft’s experience of repairing more than 10,000 EV and hybrid battery packs, Mike explains why only a small number of modules may actually need replacing when a battery fails. Fred brings the wider engineering and capital-allocation perspective, questioning what this means for vehicle values, warranty risk, battery design, the used EV market and whether current policy has properly considered what happens to these cars later in life.

They also get into the reality behind battery second life, China’s move towards repairable battery design, latent manufacturing defects, Autocraft’s OptEVizer diagnostic technology and Revive mobile workshops, before looking at the bigger question of where EVs, hybrids and ICE now sit as the market and regulation continue to change.

Visit Autocraft Solutions Group: https://www.autocraftsg.com/

• Why some EV batteries are being recycled prematurely
• What Autocraft has learned from repairing more than 10,000 battery packs
• Why only a small part of a failed battery may actually need replacing
• The financial risk of an EV battery failure outside warranty
• Why battery repairability matters to the used EV market
• How battery design can make repair easier or almost impossible
• China’s move towards cell and module-level battery repairability
• Why battery second life may not be as straightforward as it sounds
• How latent manufacturing defects appear as batteries age
• Why reading the battery management system may not tell the whole story
• The launch of OptEVizer and more detailed battery diagnostics
• How Autocraft’s Revive workshops could make battery repair more accessible
• The future mix of EVs, hybrids and internal combustion engines
• What the ZEV transition means for manufacturers and the automotive supply chain

00:00 Preview
01:43 Introducing Mike Hague-Morgan and Autocraft
03:15 From rebuilding engines to repairing EV batteries
03:39 Are we recycling EV batteries too soon?
05:36 The problem with battery second life
07:42 Why battery repairability matters
10:12 Legislation and repairable battery design
11:30 The economics of recycling
12:38 The out-of-warranty EV problem
13:58 Battery repair, risk and warranty
15:44 Testing the true health of an EV battery
18:56 Latent defects in battery manufacturing
22:14 OptEVizer and better battery diagnostics
25:53 Revive: taking battery repair closer to the vehicle
29:38 Where EVs, hybrids and ICE go next

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition and advanced engineering strategy.

Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility.

Each episode explores the engineering, commercial and strategic realities behind electric vehicles, hybrid powertrains, emerging propulsion technologies, R&D investment, regulation, consumer demand and the changing global automotive market.

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

Founder of 7Q Ltd: https://7q.ltd/

Can one powertrain really decarbonise everything from passenger cars and delivery vans to long-haul trucks, tractors and construction machinery?

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, I speak with John Goodwin, Regulatory Affairs Director at Johnson Matthey, about technology neutrality and the need for different solutions across transport and heavy-duty applications.

We explore the UK’s ZEV mandate, Europe’s changing approach to vehicle emissions, charging inequality and the role hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells and renewable fuels could play alongside battery-electric vehicles.

Find John Goodwin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-b-goodwin/

Visit Johnson Matthey’s website: matthey.com

What’s in this episode:

• Why decarbonisation may require more than one powertrain
• The UK ZEV mandate and Europe’s changing policy direction
• Charging inequality and the challenge of ageing vehicle fleets
• How hybrids and renewable fuels could support the transition
• Why tractors, construction machinery and vans need different solutions
• Battery weight, payload and downtime in heavy-duty applications
• Where hydrogen fuel cells could work effectively
• Critical raw-material demand and battery supply-chain risks
• Why lifecycle emissions matter beyond the tailpipe
• How technology neutrality could protect automotive capability and jobs

Chapters:

00:00 Preview

01:39 Introducing John Goodwin of Johnson Matthey

04:04 The ZEV mandate and technology neutrality

05:08 Europe’s uneven transition to electric vehicles

07:22 The driveway divide and a fair transition

09:08 Hybrids, renewable fuels and ageing vehicle fleets

13:14 The challenge of electrifying heavy machinery

17:32 Hydrogen fuel cells and materials handling

19:15 Battery-electric trucks, payload and downtime

23:30 The last 10% of transport decarbonisation

26:06 Critical raw materials and supply-chain pressure

30:14 Looking beyond tailpipe emissions

32:36 Recycling, circularity and technology options

33:54 Automotive jobs and battery dependency

35:06 Closing thoughts

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

The UK’s ZEV mandate is trying to dictate the pace of EV adoption, but can it dictate what consumers are willing or able to buy?

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, I examine the assumptions behind the current ZEV mandate trajectory and the growing pressure it is placing on the automotive industry. Company-car incentives have supported EV adoption so far, but reaching future targets will depend increasingly on private buyers facing higher purchase prices, concerns about depreciation and a significant divide between home and public charging.

I also set out the changes I believe would create a more achievable transition, including revised targets, fairer public charging costs, greater recognition of alternative powertrains, and more focus on vehicle weight and energy efficiency.

What’s in this episode:

• Why I believe the ZEV mandate overestimates consumer demand
• The divide between company-car and private EV adoption
• How charging costs and driveway access could limit uptake
• The case for plug-in hybrids, range extenders and alternative fuels
• Manufacturer losses, cancelled programmes and job cuts
• How China, battery supply chains and tariffs are reshaping automotive
• My proposed changes to the 2030 and 2035 targets
• Why regulation should consider vehicle weight and efficiency

Chapters:

00:00 Preview

01:18 The UK ZEV mandate review

02:28 Consumer demand and the EV adoption wall

04:09 Automotive losses and dependence on China

05:17 Rethinking the 2030 and 2035 targets

06:41 The engineering case for plug-in hybrids

08:05 Company cars, private buyers and discounting

10:04 The driveway divide and charging poverty premium

14:04 Why plug-in hybrids are more than a loophole

16:12 EV write-downs and automotive job cuts

21:49 China, tariffs and geopolitical risk

24:36 Vehicle weight and Fred’s recommendations

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

Tens of thousands of jobs are disappearing from Europe’s automotive industry, and the causes run far deeper than slowing car sales.

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, Fred Warner explores how factory overcapacity, high European energy and labour costs, Chinese competition, EV investment and global trade friction are forcing manufacturers to make difficult decisions about their future.

From restructuring at Volkswagen Group, Stellantis, Ford, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar Land Rover to EV discounting, changing production networks and pressure on Tier One suppliers, Fred considers what this contraction means for jobs, capital allocation and the future of automotive manufacturing in Europe.

What’s in this episode:

• Why Europe’s automotive industry is experiencing such a severe contraction
• The scale of job losses, factory overcapacity and restructuring across major manufacturers
• How Chinese competition and high European production costs are affecting the market
• The pressure EV investment and discounting are placing on manufacturer margins
• How tariffs and trade friction are reshaping global production strategies
• What the downturn could mean for OEMs, Tier One suppliers and future capital allocation

Chapters:

00:00 Preview: Europe’s automotive contraction

01:02 Intro: Why automotive jobs are being cut

01:29 What is driving the crisis?

02:56 Volkswagen’s job cuts and model reduction

04:49 Restructuring across Europe’s major OEMs

06:32 Overcapacity and declining European sales

07:02 The impact of Chinese competition

08:31 The EV capital squeeze

10:07 Discounting, tariffs and global trade

11:33 What this means for Tier One suppliers

12:12 Jaguar Land Rover and the outlook for Europe

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

Turning world-class research into real commercial value is one of the most underappreciated challenges in advanced engineering.

In this episode Fred Warner speaks with Richard Hopkins, Professor at the University of New South Wales and founder of P-ONE Technology, about what happens when Formula One thinking is applied to university innovation, technology transfer, and clean-tech commercialisation. Richard shares lessons from nearly three decades in Formula One, including time at Brabham, McLaren and Red Bull, and explains how that pace, urgency and change mindset can help bridge the gap between academic research and commercial reality.

Find out more about P-ONE: https://www.p-onesolutions.com/

What’s in this episode:

• Richard's journey from Brabham and McLaren to Red Bull Racing, UNSW and P-ONE Technology.
• What Formula One can teach businesses about speed, urgency, change and operational efficiency.
• Why universities often struggle to turn world-class IP into commercial ventures.
• The difference between technology readiness, commercial readiness and venture readiness.
• How P-ONE is helping bridge the gap between university research and industry problems.
• Clean-tech opportunities across solar, vehicle-to-grid, battery technology, mobility and energy.
• Why legacy OEMs may struggle to match the pace of newer automotive challengers

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:40 Richard’s Formula One journey

03:20 Lessons from winning in Formula One

06:06 Speed, change and operational efficiency

09:47 University IP & the commercialisation challenge

14:56 TRL, CRL & venture readiness

17:45 Clean tech, batteries, solar & mobility

25:41 Vehicle-to-grid and bi-directional charging

30:22 What OEMs can learn from Formula One pace

34:11 Software-led vehicles & automotive disruption

35:55 Closing thoughts

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

What happens when government targets move faster than consumers are willing, or able, to follow?

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, Fred Warner speaks with Patrick Keating, Head of External Affairs at Honda Europe, about the growing divide between EV policy and market reality.

With the UK’s ZEV mandate under review and manufacturers facing mounting regulatory and commercial pressure, Patrick explains why Honda believes sustainable mobility requires more than a single prescribed technology.

From hybrids and charging inequality to hydrogen, e-fuels and the future of the internal combustion engine, the conversation examines what a more practical transition could look like. It also asks whether current policy is protecting consumer choice and industrial competitiveness, or making the journey to lower-carbon transport harder than it needs to be.

What’s in this episode:

• Patrick Keating's perspective on the UK’s ZEV mandate
• Why EV targets are moving faster than real-world consumer demand
• Honda’s multi-pathway approach to sustainable mobility
• The case for full hybrids and plug-in hybrids
• Charging inequality and the higher costs facing some drivers
• The potential impact of pay-per-mile taxation on EV adoption
• Where hydrogen fuel cells and e-fuels could fit into the future transport mix
• Why policymakers need to consider the wider consequences of technology mandates

Chapters:

00:00 Introducing Patrick Keating of Honda Europe

00:31 The UK ZEV mandate vs consumer demand

03:33 Can the automotive industry survive to 2030?

04:13 Honda’s multi-pathway approach

08:45 Europe’s changing EV policy

11:41 The wider impact of heavy EVs

17:09 Should governments choose the technology?

21:56 The EV charging poverty premium

29:59 Pay-per-mile taxation and consumer confidence

32:46 The long-term role of hybrids

40:02 Hydrogen fuel cells and e-fuels

44:54 Honda’s message to policymakers

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, boards, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

From overweight EVs to billion-pound write-downs, automotive is facing some uncomfortable questions.

In this episode, Fred Warner reflects on four major themes emerging from recent conversations across motorsport, electrification, hydrogen, university innovation and advanced engineering. From the growing weight of EVs to the slow commercialisation of university IP, the episode looks at where engineering ambition, regulation, capital allocation and real-world delivery are starting to collide.

Fred also explores what automotive and engineering businesses can learn from motorsport: faster problem-solving, stronger alignment and sharper programme governance. With OEMs facing major EV write-downs and growing pressure from Chinese competitors, this episode asks where the industry may need to rethink its assumptions.

What’s in this episode:

• Why EV weight may be one of the most overlooked problems in electrification
• Why university IP & patents often fail to become commercial reality
• How product cycle times are shrinking while academic commercialisation remains slow
• What McMurtry’s active fan technology could mean for braking, cornering and future vehicle design
• What businesses can learn from motorsport’s delivery rhythm and urgency
• Why major OEM EV write-downs raise serious questions about capital allocation and programme governance
• How software-defined vehicles, vehicle-to-grid and Chinese competition are reshaping automotive strategy

Chapters:

00:00 Preview

00:50 Intro: recent lessons from Future Engineering Bets

01:45 Problem 1: EV weight is out of control

03:56 Problem 2: university IP & commercialisation

05:53 Problem 3: active aero & McMurtry’s fan technology

07:19 What businesses can learn from motorsport

09:20 Problem 4: OEM write-downs & programme restructuring

10:47 Software-defined vehicles and the future role of the car

11:56 Rethinking capital allocation and governance

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

Hydrogen in mobility has had plenty of sceptics, but Extreme H is taking a very different approach: prove it under race conditions.

Fred Warner speaks with Mark Grain, Technical Director of Extreme H, the world’s first FIA-homologated hydrogen-powered motorsport championship. With a career spanning decades, Mark brings a deep motorsport perspective to how hydrogen fuel cell technology can be tested, proven and developed in some of the toughest racing environments.

For OEMs, investors and engineering leaders, this episode looks at where hydrogen could sit in the future mobility mix - and how racing can help prove what is technically possible.

What’s in this episode:

• What Extreme H is and how it evolved from Extreme E.

• Why the championship is using motorsport to prove hydrogen-powered vehicles in harsh environments.

• How the hydrogen fuel cell system works alongside the battery and electric motors.

• FIA homologation, crash testing and safety requirements for hydrogen racing.

• Grid-independent paddock power using hydrogen fuel cells and solar arrays.

• Gaseous hydrogen, liquid hydrogen and why Extreme H chose its route.

• Why motorsport can accelerate future technology development.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro: Mark Grain and Extreme H

01:50 Mark’s motorsport background

04:16 What is Extreme H?

06:53 Why hydrogen motorsport?

08:09 Answering the hydrogen critics

10:06 Roadmap to FIA World Championship

11:09 Racing hydrogen cars in extreme terrain

13:55 Hydrogen paddock power and infrastructure

18:49 Hydrogen fuel cell vs battery roadmap

21:17 Gaseous hydrogen, storage and safety

26:28 Motorsport as a testbed for future technology

32:26 Future formats and championship ambitions

34:49 Where to follow Extreme H

35:42 Closing thoughts

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition

• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion

• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems

• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level

• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China

• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

What happens when a small engineering team decides to build an electric car that can beat Formula One records?

In this episode of Future Engineering Bets, Fred Warner sits down with Iain Wight of McMurtry Automotive to explore the engineering behind McMurtry’s record-breaking performance technology - from the Spéirling and fan-generated downforce to high-performance batteries, lightweight EV design, thermal management, and where these innovations could be applied beyond the track.

This episode looks at what happens when electrification is treated not as a compromise, but as a route to genuinely new performance possibilities.

You can learn more about McMurtry over on their website: https://mcmurtry.com/

What’s in this episode: 

• Iain Wight’s background in advanced engineering and motorsport
• The story behind McMurtry and the record-breaking Spéirling
• Lightweight EV performance, battery technology, and thermal management
• Why modern EVs have become so heavy
• Fan-generated downforce and future vehicle design
• How McMurtry technology could apply beyond automotive

Chapters: 

00:00 Preview

01:05 Intro: Iain Wight & McMurtry Technology

01:57 Iain’s background in advanced engineering

03:49 The story behind McMurtry and Spéirling

06:49 High-performance battery technology

09:41 Why lightweight EV performance matters

10:34 Why EVs have become too heavy

15:43 Battery life and fast charging concerns

18:17 Making electric performance exciting

21:03 EV efficiency vs hydrogen and combustion

23:36 Fan downforce and future vehicle design

30:08 Scaling innovation beyond the car

33:49 Hybrid applications and future powertrains

37:12 Right solution, right application

38:54 McMurtry records and closing thoughts

About Future Engineering Bets: 

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition

• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion

• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems

• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level

• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China

• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/

What happens if the companies that built the automotive industry no longer control where the value sits?

In this episode, Fred Warner asks whether legacy automotive OEMs have lost control of their own market. As electrification accelerates, the power in automotive is shifting away from traditional vehicle manufacturing and towards batteries, software, supply chains, IP, and technology platforms.

From China’s dominance in EV battery supply chains to Volkswagen’s software challenges, BYD’s rise, and the growing role of tech-led suppliers, this episode explores whether OEMs are still the industry’s power players - or whether they are becoming assembly brands in a market increasingly controlled by others.

For investors, boards, and engineering leaders, the real question is no longer simply who builds the car. It’s who owns the value behind it.

What’s in this episode:

• Why legacy OEMs may be losing control of the automotive value chain
• How batteries and software are changing where profit sits
• China’s growing dominance in EV supply chains
• Why software-defined vehicles are a major challenge for traditional manufacturers
• What Volkswagen, Rivian, Stellantis, BYD, Volvo and Northvolt reveal about the shift
• Whether OEMs risk becoming mechanical integrators rather than value owners
• Who may capture future margin: OEMs, Tier 1s, software firms or battery suppliers
• Where investors may need to look next in automotive

Chapters:

00:00 Intro: Have OEMs lost control?

02:15 The powertrain problem

04:31 The software-defined vehicle trap

06:27 China’s dominance of the EV ecosystem

08:33 Who owns the IP and customer?

10:03 Who captures the profit?

12:00 Final verdict: have OEMs lost control?

13:33 Where should investors place their bets?

About Future Engineering Bets:

Future Engineering Bets is for CEOs, board members, and private equity investors making high-stakes decisions in electrification, energy transition, and advanced engineering strategy. Get a boardroom-level view of the engineering decisions shaping billions in capital investment and defining the future of automotive and mobility. Each episode breaks down the engineering, commercial, and strategic realities behind topics such as:

• Electric vehicles and the global EV transition
• Hybrid powertrains and the future of internal combustion
• Hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and emerging propulsion systems
• Product strategy and R&D investment at OEM and Tier 1 level
• Market dynamics across Europe, the US, and China
• The impact of regulation versus real consumer demand

If you are responsible for product direction, capital allocation, or technology strategy, this series will help you think more clearly about where to place your next bet.

About Fred Warner:

Fred Warner, Founder of 7Q Ltd (https://7q.ltd/), is a specialist partner and Chartered Engineer connecting capital investment with no nonsense value creation. With a background spanning motorsport, aerospace, automotive, clean tech, rail, and electronics - including experience across F1, Honeywell, GE, and Meggitt - Fred works with CEOs, boards, and investors on high stakes engineering and R&D programmes. Connect with Fred on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-warner/