Tim Quast, CEO of Market Structure Edge, explains why futures are no longer reliable predictors of market direction. He points to the rise of high-frequency trading firms like Susquehanna, Citadel, and Jane Street, which have investment horizons measured in milliseconds. These firms, holding trillions in derivatives, distort price signals. He also warns of increased volatility around monthly options expirations and index rebalances, noting that these periods can make predictable trading difficult.

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