FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis.

Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021.

The sell-off in the USD can be attributed to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate hikes by this summer. The expectation currently stands at a 25 basis point hike in July, with the date projected for 26/07. However, indications suggest this could be the last hike in the current cycle, with futures showing a 1-in-4 chance by November.

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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.

 This episode will cover:
1. Explanation of GDP and its importance.
2. Methods to calculate GDP.
3. Components of the Expenditure Approach.
4. Impact of GDP on foreign exchange.
5. Timely indicators and labor market data.

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Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more rate hikes in the US without any cuts in the near term. Lagarde has practically confirmed an ECB hike in July. In other news, the Australian dollar has rebounded despite the unexpected decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged in their July meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has approached new lows despite speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market (more on that in a later episode). However, the primary focus of this week's episode will be on emerging markets.

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July. Despite these hawkish stances, the dollar sold off across the board, leaving the hosts to consider why this underperformance occurred.

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations.

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.

 This episode will cover:
- Definition and explanation of inflation
- Measurement of inflation
- Types of inflation
- Terminology related to inflation
- Importance of inflation data and central bank's role

We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven flows into the greenback. We also discuss the ongoing negotiations in Washington around the debt ceiling and why they are so important for the markets. Additionally, we analyze the relative performance of the Eurozone and the UK economies and how it may impact the euro's performance against the pound.

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Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is still data-dependent, whereas the BoE voted to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting. Despite this, the pound and euro have been the two best-performing currencies in the G10 so far in 2023.

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.

 This episode will cover:
- What are central banks?
- What is the purpose of central banks?
- How do central banks set monetary policy
- Why do central banks change interest rates?
- How do central bank rates impact currencies?
- The importance of central bank foreign exchange reserves 

We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentiment is high, with most currencies performing well against safe havens, and there has been a broad sell-off of the USD. We'll also discuss the signs of continued cooling in US inflation, which has contributed to the expectation that the Fed may soon end its hiking cycle. So, sit back, relax, and let's dive into the latest news in the FX market.

We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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