In this week's podcast, FXCM Senior Market Specialists Russ and Nik discuss the fallout from the UK's mini-budget. The two specialists also talk about jobs data and how that impacts the Fed's monetary policy in its battle to tame inflation. In addition, the environment increases in complexity with the Q3 earnings season kicking off this week. Join our specialists as they discuss these and more.

Last week's minibudget caused vast amounts of volatility in the Gilt market, with GBPUSD reacting. Finally, the BoE stepped in to calm markets. Since then, UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has backtracked on 45% tax rate cut. The core PCE in the US surprised to the upside at 4.9%, suggesting sticky inflation. This Friday, we will see the NFP numbers, with forecasts ranging between 250-265k, suggesting moderation in job numbers.

Last week's CPI numbers showed resilient inflation. This surprised markets and introduced 100bps as an option for the Fed. Join FXCM Market Specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss this, the new terminal rate, and the chances of the Fed overshooting. The two specialists also examine the yield inversion and discuss the BoJ's monetary policy. Please join us for these and more.

Fed chair Powell's speech led to a risk-off environment, as he outlined inflation as the primary policy driver. However, the Fed was not the only hawkish central bank, with tightening comments from the ECB. Moreover, the ECB minutes seemed to downplay a recession. This prompts Russ and Nik to discuss a general and potential contrarian overshoot scenario. NFP on Friday has forecasts between 285-295K, and Euro PMIs print on Thursday.

The NFP release was a big upside surprise. Unemployment dropped to 3.5%, and the economy created 528K jobs during July (vs 250K estimate). Expectations are now for another 75bps hike in September, with all eyes on today's CPI release. Last week saw both the RBA and BoE raise rates by 50bps, with the BoE's starling communication of 13% inflation by year-end and the onset of a recession. Friday sees UK GDP and University of Michigan consumer sentiment on the calendar, which will interest the market.

The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and cancelled forward guidance. GDP indicates a technical recession, and US inflation is still ticking at the highest level in 40 years. The Eurozone shows resilience but with savage inflation on its side of the pond. This week the BoE and RBA will hike rates, but there is scope for surprises. NFP Friday has a forecast of 250K jobs created in July. Yet, the tension between inflation and contraction lingers. We discuss all these and more in this week's podcast. 

Inflation is still in focus as the US printed at 9.1%  - the fastest pace since 1981. Bank of Canada surprises with 100bps to front load hikes due to inflationary concerns. Waller and Bullard talk down hike expectation to 75bps from 100bps. Fed funds rate has 75bps at 70% for 27 July hike. Bank earnings disappoint; this week, NFLX and Tesla kick off the tech side. Housing data is in focus on Tuesday, given Waller's comments. EU, UK and CAD CPI, UK employment data, plus a lot more in this week's podcast. 

NFP came in better than expected, albeit trending down. Other data hints at cracks forming in the job market. FXCM market specialists, Nik and Russ, discuss this further. The yield curve remains inverted and is in danger of steeper inversion as the Fed continues with its aggressiveness. Wednesday sees the CPI release, with markets forecasting a higher headline number than previous. RBNZ and BoC also feature on the calendar. Shifting expectations regarding the BoC's hike makes for a hot calendar item. This and more. 

Last week saw quarterly GDP contracts and PCE show signs of moderation. Moreover, manufacturing missed its forecast. All of a sudden, the narrative focuses on recession. Nik and Russ discuss if the Fed's focus will change in Q3. The RBA looks to deliver further hikes, and Wednesday sees the release of the FOMC's minutes from its June meeting.

This week FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik talk about inflation. First from the ECB's point of view and then moving to the US CPI miss on Friday. Market reactions were swift, which followed through to Monday. This Wednesday sees the Fed rate hike, and the market repricing from 50bps to 75bps had a large part to play in Monday's bloodbath. Thursday has the BoE hiking rates, with the market expecting 25bps. Finally, given the recent weakness in the large retailers' earnings, Wednesday's retail numbers will be interesting. All this and more.