Game of Chance

Luck plays a huge role in baseball, more than most people realize. In fact, baseball players behave a lot like coin flips, and are subject to the same laws of probability. How much do stats actually tell about a player’s ability?

Why do we care if a batter hits .300 or a pitcher wins 20 games? How have these arbitrary milestones become so important to baseball fans? And, more importantly, how do they affect the players and the game itself? Is there a better way to quickly summarize a player’s accomplishments?

A recent ESPN article claimed that Barry Bonds was a more dominant home run hitter than Babe Ruth, and rewrites the all-time home run leader list with the use of some flawed math. I explain how to use z-scores to determine which players are actually the most dominant, and how to compare dominance across eras.

Carlos Beltran returns to centerfield for the New York Mets tonight while Jose Reyes sits out. The Mets injury management over the past two seasons has been abysmal.

Also: the “get it right” argument in support of instant replay is based on a misunderstanding about the role of umpires and how the rules are enforced. Is instant replay more for the fans than for the game?

There have been some surprising performances in the first half of 2010. Are they flukes or for real? A closer look at all-stars Martin Prado, Arthur Rhodes, Yovani Gallardo, Corey Hart, and Jose Bautista.

The Texas Rangers averaged over 7 runs per game in June, led by Vladimir Guerrero who is destroying baseballs the way he has for the past 14 years, and still not getting the recognition he deserves. The exciting and colorful bad ball hitter is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the all-time greats, yet he is often placed in the same category as good-but-not-great players like David Wright, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay.

Rick Ankiel is on a very short list of players (which includes Babe Ruth) who have been legitimate pitchers and position players at the major league level. Because of his talent, his persistence, and the hardships he’s faced, I consider him one of the most important players in the game today.

It seems instant replay review is destined to be a part of baseball at some point. How will it affect the game? Schuyler Dunlap weighs in on how instant replay could be implemented. I remain skeptical that it’s a good thing for the sport.

The Mets are not going to make the playoffs this year, but Omar Minaya will probably trade young talent for mercenary veterans anyway, destroying next year’s team in the process. Mets fans watch this happen year after year, while the team continues to neglect their long-standing starting pitching problem (and last-ditch mid-season moves cannot solve a problem this deep).

Umpire Jim Joyce missed a call last night that cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game…or did he? How should we think about Galarraga’s performance? How many times have similar events occurred in baseball history? Thoughts on the nature of baseball records, instant replay, reversing the call, and what to do if you’re mad about it.