I do like to answer a subscriber question!

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Harold asked a series of questions, and of course I had to answer. Here's my statement of his scenario: the US declares victory: Persia delenda est.what remains is no longer the Iranian state. Missiles striking Israel and the Gulf monarchies are being shot by individual warlords. Israel continues to operate against launchers. Only RMB-denominated cargoes pass Hormuz.

Why wouldn't the Iranians stop fighting? How could they go on fighting? Where would they get money to rebuild?

I'm sure I left a bunch of unanswered questions, though. I only had 15 minutes!

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

31 MEU is steaming a long way, from Okinawa to the Gulf. It's going to take a long time. Is President Trump going to keep the war going that long? Why?

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The Lebanese Army is very likely convinced that it hasn’t got the combat power to push Hizballah around, and perhaps more important that not even Lloyd’s of London could lay off enough insurance to cover the lives of Lebanese Army leaders if they tried. There’s a sort of pretense that Hizballah isn’t effectively a provincial government in Lebanon, and that the ‘real government’ ought to be able to make its writ run in the South against Hizballah’s will. I suppose it’s convenient.

This is the second podcast this weekend that I’m making available to people with free subscriptions. I’ve also posted it to Xitter, because that’s where Gary Steinberg asked me the question.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The spot price of Urea is USD600 a tonne; sulfuric acid is selling at USD169 a tonne. These are high prices, because freighters can’t get through the Strait of Hormuz, which means farmers are lacking fertiliser, and that means lower crop yields next year. Lower yields mean higher prices; the knock-on effects of the war are going to be felt for a while.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

There is a triangle of autocracies which have allied with each other to oppose the West. American national security strategy and national defence strategy has in recent months dictated a pivot away from these confrontations and a retrenchment in the Western Hemisphere. Nonetheless, the US finds itself moving combat power and influence away from two theatres of operation against these powers to commit to a third. This could be a significant dislocation of American power, not so much from the Western Hemisphere, but from relevant theatres of operation in World War 3.0.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The US went to war in Iran last week without a clear understanding of its war aims or strategic pathways. I’ve characterised this as a divergence between the US and the Israeli approaches to this war: the Israelis are in it to degrade Iranian offensive capability. The Americans are in it for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, and which differ among senior Administration officials. Last Thursday we started to see convergence, not along the lines of a replacement Iranian regime (which both the US and Israel have offered as their desired end-state), but along the lines of giving Iran enough of a kicking that regardless of their intentions, they are incapable of menacing anyone. Speaking loosely, the American President suggested that Iran wouldn’t be a threat for a decade, but that’s hyperbole: like the ‘obliteration’ of Iran’s nuclear programme in 2025, it underestimates Iran’s resilience, particularly the resilience of its ballistic missile production.The British Government was right to expect a more complete explanation of America’s war aims before permitting American forces to fly attack missions from British bases in England and British Indian Ocean Territory. The British Government is now trying to appear decisive by sending the ship we have (HMS Prince of Wales, an aircraft carrier) instead of the ship we needed last week (HMS Dragon, an air defence destroyer) to defend RAF Akrotiri from drone attack. The American president’s response has been … unkind.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I've been looking all afternoon for a moment to record this. I've had meetings, I've answered questions, I've done interviews. I've realised one minute before air that my headphones were in the car. I've had supper. This morning's wallballs (sets of 20) and deadlifts (sets of 10) have caught up to me. I've abandoned my usual upright posture, and just talked to the phone, but not into the external microphone which is over there on my desk.

APOLOGY: The microphone gain was set too low, and this commentary can be difficult to hear.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe