Geopolitical Cousins

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions

(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire

(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals

(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate

(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran

(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels

(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal

(32:03) - What China Offers the World

(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom

(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment

(38:50) - China Constraints First

(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate

(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar

(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update

(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation

(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole

(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk

(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over

(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains

(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline

(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop

(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views

(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony

(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - After Dark

(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter

(03:01) - From Sports to Iran

(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals

(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage

(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate

(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame

(18:04) - Cold War Framing

(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan

(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC

(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math

(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare

(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate

(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks

(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut

(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning

(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook

(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy

(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling

(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan

(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston

(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter

(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game

(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory

(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters

(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity

(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm

(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit

(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks

(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox

(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America

(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate

(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines

(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage

(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines

(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table

(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation

(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand

(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks

(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent

(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning

(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy

(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.

Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Housekeeping

(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter

(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes

(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check

(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth

(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil

(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy

(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk

(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk

(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains

(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier

(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor

(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition

(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla

(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge

(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile

(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line

(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising

(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos

(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics

(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing

(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease

(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts

(00:56) - Hero Principal Story

(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter

(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals

(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets

(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma

(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency

(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial

(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior

(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain

(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate

(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp

(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran

(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision

(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math

(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home

(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained

(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification

(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings

(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors

(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom

(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout

(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends

(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift

(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising

(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC

(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites

(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun

(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot

(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter

(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions

(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold

(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth

(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives

(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance

(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits

(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers

(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity

(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains

(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term

(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic

(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism

(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades

(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout

(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise

(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check

(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities

(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China

(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices

(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups

(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play

(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift

(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow

(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Open

(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates

(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions

(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction

(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B

(11:43) - Door C War But Oil

(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets

(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability

(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios

(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage

(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits

(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario

(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate

(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift

(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium

(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check

(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover

(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument

(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US

(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case

(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State

(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks

(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.

His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome

01:32 Beer And Banter

05:05 Trump Pause And Troops

06:43 Oil Shock Timeline

08:41 Houthis And Red Sea

11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil

13:43 Troop Math Reality

18:06 War Outlook Shifts

24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios

28:50 Iran Constraints Debate

32:20 Market Mispricing Pain

34:12 China And Allies Fallout

35:09 China Leverage on Iran

36:55 Low Conviction Warnings

37:53 Middle East War Normalized

40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement

42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold

48:36 Markets Start to Crack

53:24 Munitions and Time Limits

54:55 Europe Energy Exposure

56:52 Europe Must Get Real

59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up

01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism

01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling

01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog

01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock

01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium

01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon

01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism

01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century

01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power

01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here

01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams

01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball

01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts:

(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????

They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup

(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter

(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos

(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup

(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last

(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation

(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence

(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis

(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus

(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance

(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq

(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War

(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island

(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep

(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers

(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed

(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained

(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate

(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint

(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant

(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons

(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique

(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support

(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally

(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout

(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!

(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap

(02:15) - Trump War Quotes

(02:54) - Menu Metaphor

(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity

(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet

(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic

(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock

(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s

(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz

(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters

(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk

(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario

(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside

(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy

(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building

(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency

(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines

(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace

(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down

(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters

(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran

(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check

(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario

(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down

(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation

(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro