America wages economic war with a triple onslaught and could re-industrialise at the expense of Europe. Europe doesn't seem to be fit for the highly complex convergence of geopolitical and monetary forces of our time. 

The strong USD, a fast-paced increase in interest rates and high energy prices are reinforcing America’s Superpower status. Washington is definitely hurting China-Russia and their allies, but the biggest victim or collateral damage by far is likely to be Western Europe: the EU and UK. Some say the EU can only blame itself, and ironically Britain has been America's most loyal ally. Europe runs the risk of being devastated. 

Other victims are indebted developing countries. Emerging Nations with disciplined monetary and fiscal policies superior to the G7's are likely to overcome the geopolitical-economic onslaught by Washington much better. But when they do, they are likely to move away from the USD. I expect the USD to go from 60% share of the world's reserve currencies to just 40% during the course of this decade. It will limit the extent to which Washington can simply print money and spend beyond its means at the expense of the rest of the world. Thus, following this massive onslaught, Washington is likely to want to usher in a monetary reform - retaining the initiative. 

To play geopolitics, 

- you need to know your weaknesses and strengths

- you also need to know which assets you can deploy and your competitors' assets

- you need to be exceedingly pragmatic 

Risking your entire future by banking on so-called loyal friends - as Europe is doing - works only in movies. In an existential crisis, every nation is on its own, because every government's first duty is to its own people. Common interests can unite them, but they tend to be temporary.  Their differing needs and assets will lead to conflicts of interests or betrayal: UK-US relations during and after WW2. Those nations that over-emphasise how "united they are with other nations", are the ones that fail to prepare for  tough times. Washington doesn't need Brussels, but Brussels needs Washington and London. 

In Europe, Berlin is increasingly facing having to decide between supporting Ukraine's war effort or the stability of the EURO financial system. A crisis in the EURO Zone is gathering pace as Germany is staring at a possible unprecedented depression. As we said in March, our sanctions were not really thought through. The EU and USA have underestimated the response of the non-aligned world (more than a dozen large nations) to our economic war on Russia. Eleven South East Asian nations will follow the lead of the BRICS to trade without the USD and avoid our European payment system. Other important economies like Mexico, Argentina and Nigeria are considering their options to also reduce their dependence on the West. 

Over time this will further erode the influence of the West and reduce our ability to print money and finance our massive fiscal deficits without inflation. 

Takushi also addresses the possibility of the rate of inflation and interest rates peaking over the next 12 months. 

For the first time in my long career as economist and geopolitical strategist, I’d like to share a prayer with you. It is something I’d like to do in favor of the Ukrainian and Russian people, but also for their leaders. They along other world leaders need our prayer support to find a solution for this complex problem.

Today’s Scripture-from-the-Bible from Herrenhut is amazingly relevant for our troubled times. The text in German is actually slightly more insightful than the one in English in our context.

Herrenhut was founded more than two centuries ago by Count Zinzendorf. He took in early Protestant refugees from Eastern Europe and gave them shelter. This gave birth to the modern missions movement. For over 200 years a word for every day has been read. Those passages are chosen long before the year begins. Today’s word is remarkable As if God were inviting us to receive this word in faith. While we can help and pray for the suffering people, we can also pray for peace and that this conflict will not escalate to the whole continent or the world. I humbly believe the risk of an escalation cannot be underestimated. Let us pray for our world leaders - they need our prayers more than at any time since 1962.