Geopolitical Research

Geopolitical Research

By Christian TakushiNews
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Geopolitical Research episodes

  • Rishi Sunak may be the leader the UK and the world need the next two years
    (released Sun 23 Oct 2022). Rishi Sunak may be the leader the UK and the world need the next two years
    A year of political upheaval may have been the "blessing in disguise" that opened the door for Mr. Rishi Sunak to become the next UK Prime Minister for one of the most challenging periods in post-WW2 history. 
    The UK has two formidable candidates: I humbly think both Mrs. Penny Mardaunt and Mr. Rishi Sunak are fit to lead the UK and the free world in the years that lie ahead. A joint ticket could be even a greater blessing for the country. A Sunak-Mardaunt government or the reappointment of Johnson and Truss cabinet members could unite the party and allow Britain to take advantage of its regained independence post Brexit. The UK can be both a close US ally and also a nation rebuilding the relationship between East and West (emerging and developing nations want trade opportunities that improve their geopolitical and security situation - the UK is a respected geopolitical and military power). 
    The UK and the free world need a leader that brings the following to the table ..
    1) Character - integrity, being thoughtful and even-keeled. The risk of nuclear war is elevated 
    2) Intelligence - he or she will have to understand dynamic complexities and handle multiple crises 
    3) The trust of financial markets - this can be a decisive asset
    4) Help ease the growing West-East conflict and distrust - A well mannered British gentleman, Mr. Sunak, stands out with his Asian connection and understanding. As nations need to rebuild supply chains outside of China, the UK can play a key role with its maritime tradition and the Commonwealth.
    I think Mr. Boris Johnson has made a brilliant move by not entering the race (if confirmed). He has been the right man for BREXIT and in an uncertain and challenging world he might in the future lead the UK again. Downsides of Sunak: there are obviously downsides with every political figure. Mr Sunak is being criticized for being open to the advancement of Central Bank Digital Currencies research. Which has its risks (social scoring etc). But all G7 and G20 nations are working over time on it. Even Brazil, led by a very conservative Christian President. I would be careful with believing everything the head of the WEF “supposedly” says or is being said about him. I have respect for his achievements, but sometimes it comes across as if the WEF shapes and runs the world. Just because people attend the WEF forum, and have overlaps with the WEF, it doesn’t mean that the WEF kind of owns them. No single man is currently owning or running the world at his will. Which doesn’t mean the risk is not there. Nevertheless as I have said before, digital currencies are coming and governments will run them. I am not taking sides, this is pure balanced analysis. My personal opinion does not shape my research. At this juncture Sunak’s rise is stabilizing and a rather positive shock for the UK, the West, India, East Africa .. and negative for China.
    27 min
  • The UK needs a brilliant Prime Minister to navigate what lies ahead
    The world needs a stable and able UK government to help lead the West and the Free World in the months to come. 
    The new UK PM should rethink the global security situation. The UK and Germany are being devastated and may never recover from this economic shock. The new PM should rethink the sanctions: The sanctions looked only good on paper. Since powerful emergency nations are not supporting it, Russia is being barely affected, the UK and EU are being devastated while the USA and Saudi Arabia are profiteering in a huge way. In two years the bankrupted EU won’t be able to defend nor rebuild Ukraine. Also mentioned: Five other areas of geopolitical-economic tension we are monitoring around the world
    26 min
  • America wages economic war and could re-industrialise at the expense of Europe

    America wages economic war with a triple onslaught and could re-industrialise at the expense of Europe. Europe doesn't seem to be fit for the highly complex convergence of geopolitical and monetary forces of our time. 

    The strong USD, a fast-paced increase in interest rates and high energy prices are reinforcing America’s Superpower status. Washington is definitely hurting China-Russia and their allies, but the biggest victim or collateral damage by far is likely to be Western Europe: the EU and UK. Some say the EU can only blame itself, and ironically Britain has been America's most loyal ally. Europe runs the risk of being devastated. 

    Other victims are indebted developing countries. Emerging Nations with disciplined monetary and fiscal policies superior to the G7's are likely to overcome the geopolitical-economic onslaught by Washington much better. But when they do, they are likely to move away from the USD. I expect the USD to go from 60% share of the world's reserve currencies to just 40% during the course of this decade. It will limit the extent to which Washington can simply print money and spend beyond its means at the expense of the rest of the world. Thus, following this massive onslaught, Washington is likely to want to usher in a monetary reform - retaining the initiative. 

    To play geopolitics, 

    - you need to know your weaknesses and strengths

    - you also need to know which assets you can deploy and your competitors' assets

    - you need to be exceedingly pragmatic 

    Risking your entire future by banking on so-called loyal friends - as Europe is doing - works only in movies. In an existential crisis, every nation is on its own, because every government's first duty is to its own people. Common interests can unite them, but they tend to be temporary.  Their differing needs and assets will lead to conflicts of interests or betrayal: UK-US relations during and after WW2. Those nations that over-emphasise how "united they are with other nations", are the ones that fail to prepare for  tough times. Washington doesn't need Brussels, but Brussels needs Washington and London. 

    21 min
  • EU and USA struggle with aftermath of their sanctions as BRICS & ASEAN stand up

    In Europe, Berlin is increasingly facing having to decide between supporting Ukraine's war effort or the stability of the EURO financial system. A crisis in the EURO Zone is gathering pace as Germany is staring at a possible unprecedented depression. As we said in March, our sanctions were not really thought through. The EU and USA have underestimated the response of the non-aligned world (more than a dozen large nations) to our economic war on Russia. Eleven South East Asian nations will follow the lead of the BRICS to trade without the USD and avoid our European payment system. Other important economies like Mexico, Argentina and Nigeria are considering their options to also reduce their dependence on the West. 

    Over time this will further erode the influence of the West and reduce our ability to print money and finance our massive fiscal deficits without inflation. 

    Takushi also addresses the possibility of the rate of inflation and interest rates peaking over the next 12 months. 


    30 min
  • Why Conservative MP’s should not vacate Boris Johnson
    Although the UK Prime Minister made a series of bad decisions, his ouster would send a wrong signal. Celebrations would go off in Brussels, Paris and Moscow. With the war raging in Eastern Europe and the EU in need of British military deterrent, now is the time for PM Johnson to finish the job (addressing the NI protocol) out of a position of relative national strength. Let Johnson finish the job!
    12 min
  • Interview: 82 nations defy the West - Growing isolation of the West?
    A growing number of powerful non-aligned nations have enough of the West and are increasingly defying it!
    Geopolitical economic adviser Christian Takushi was interviewed by US journalist Ron Myers on 18 May 2022 on French radio. 
    Are we missing an important global shift?
    In our righteous anger about the desolation that has befallen the Ukrainian people and the war, many in the West have eagerly accepted a popular view:
    The world is with us, united in support of our stance against Russia. There is the West’s view; and that of Russia & China.
    Geopolitical economic adviser Christian Takushi gave a keynote speech at UBP’s Investment Conference last week – he focused on the much overlooked 3rd view, that of powerful non-aligned & multi-aligned nations (more than half of mankind). They are rather neutral and increasingly “walking away” from the West. Not primarily because of the war in Ukraine, but because of our
    – rampant money printing
    – double moral standards
    – threats we have used to force them to support our UN motions (our behaviour is deemed undemocratic & colonial)
    Rising non-aligned nations are now actively looking for ways to stop buying and accepting our debased USD and Euros.
    That could mark the end of our “living beyond our means .. and paying our import bills with printed paper money”
    Let’s rethink the condescending way in which we treat India, Brazil, Mexico, S Africa, Indonesia etc. The West is making strategic mistakes and many are reading only Western news that support our own views. That is not being well informed in the XXI century.
    14 min
  • The West sits in the trap: Trying to fight inflation of 10% with 1% interest rates
    Most of the world is fighting inflation - it seems we are all on the same boat. We aren’t. The West’s situation is a disaster for this reasons: it is highly indebted, it has been printing money to artificially push up asset prices (stocks, bonds and real estate) and to pay for its fiscal spending. The debt is so huge, G7 central banks cannot even raise interest rates above 1% although inflation is running hot for more than a year. The West sits in a trap of our own making.
    5 min
  • A prayer for the East & West, Ukraine

    For the first time in my long career as economist and geopolitical strategist, I’d like to share a prayer with you. It is something I’d like to do in favor of the Ukrainian and Russian people, but also for their leaders. They along other world leaders need our prayer support to find a solution for this complex problem.

    Today’s Scripture-from-the-Bible from Herrenhut is amazingly relevant for our troubled times. The text in German is actually slightly more insightful than the one in English in our context.

    Herrenhut was founded more than two centuries ago by Count Zinzendorf. He took in early Protestant refugees from Eastern Europe and gave them shelter. This gave birth to the modern missions movement. For over 200 years a word for every day has been read. Those passages are chosen long before the year begins. Today’s word is remarkable As if God were inviting us to receive this word in faith. While we can help and pray for the suffering people, we can also pray for peace and that this conflict will not escalate to the whole continent or the world. I humbly believe the risk of an escalation cannot be underestimated. Let us pray for our world leaders - they need our prayers more than at any time since 1962.


    11 min
  • Resurgent Britain: UK-German collaboration on the rise?
    The global geopolitical-economic landscape is proving increasingly conducive for a resurgent Britain as a global geopolitical power.  
    As we have been predicting for years Brexit and now the Ukraine crisis are accelerating the rise of Britain as a global geopolitical power. Britain is stepping in the vacuum that a retreating divided America is leaving in parts of the world. The harsh way President Biden treated German chancellor Scholz this week in Washington will only encourage Berlin to seek more military protection from the U.K. As we have been warning for years the EU is a compromised NATO ally, but this still doesn’t mean Washington can ignore that France and Germany have a difficult history and economic ties they cannot overlook when trying to help Ukraine. Thus, while the USA and Britain can help with weapons, Germany and France have to take a slightly more cautious approach. After all both powers invaded Russia with tragic outcomes. This is something that London seems to have more understanding for than Washington.
    28 min

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