Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational.
Searching for Outliers
How to Get Lucky
Also mentioned:
Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium
The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast
The entirety of the LessWrong Curated Podcast
Friendship is Optimal
Things you’re allowed to do
Micro-Marriages
Bad At Marketing? Eneasz’s novel What Lies Dreaming,
and Substack DeathIsBad
0:00:36 Feedback
0:26:30 Main Topic – Outliers and Luck
1:36:39 LW posts
1:49:52 Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?


Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:


The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
Asch’s Conformity Experiment
Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:
On Expressing Your Concerns
Lonely Dissent


166 – Getting Lucky

A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.

Society & Culture

Personal Journals

History

Philosophy

Places & Travel

A bit of a change of pace this episode. Eneasz and Steven catch up on some feedback we’ve had piling up for the last several weeks. Always feel free to call us out on any bullshit we say or if you have anything you want to add to our discussions. Chat with us and a ton of awesome people on our Discord server, comment on the episode here, email us at BayesianConspiracyPodcast@gmail.com, or use our now-mostly-inactive subreddit!
LINKS
Claude 3
Tumblr post from one participant of Aella’s birthday party
Twitter thread from the badass virgin attendee we mentioned
0:00:17 – Feedback
0:56:24 – Guild of the Rose Update
0:58:42 – Less Wrong Posts
1:39:29 – Thank the Patron

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.



Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
Joy in Discovery
Bind Yourself to Reality
Next Sequence Posts:
If You Demand Magic, Magic Won’t Help
The Beauty of Settled Science




212 – Feedback Extravaganza

Less.Online gathers rationalist writers (and readers) for a major event in Berkeley May 31 – June 2nd. Eneasz will be there! Ben Pace and Raymond Arnold tell us all about it.
Get all the details you could want plus tickets at Less.Online!

Bayes Blast 30 – Less.Online

“Social justice progressivism (SJP) is the first time most people—including most Christians—have encountered a truly vital religion,” argues Tracing Woodgrains. We dive into this.
LINKS
The Twitter Essay we’re discussing
Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter
Tracing Woodgrains’s SubStack
Trace’s piece on the FAA scandal/conspiracy
Eneasz’s post on repenting for new atheism
Eliezer on Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
TBC episode 7(!) with a negative utilitarian (Kill All Humans)
Yassine’s thread on religious tolerance of wokism
Robin Williams escaped Lewy Body Dementia
Richard Dawkins’s The Greatest Show On Earth
Scott Alexander’s Fascination Lottery
Worth The Candle by Alexander Wales
Eneasz on The Peace of Westphalia and the War on Christmas
0:00:17 – The New Vital Religion
1:22:31 – Guild of the Rose Update
1:23:42 – Less Wrong Posts
1:43:36 – Thank the Patron

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.



Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
Savanna Poets
Joy in the Merely Real
Next Sequence Posts:
Joy in Discovery
Bind Yourself to Reality




211 – The Social Justice Religion with Tracing Woodgrains

We speak with Simone and Malcolm from Based Camp and Pronatalist.org. World population is a few decades from collapse if trends continue. Is this bad, and what can be done?
LINKS
Based Camp YouTube  and Podcast
Pronatalist.org
The mentioned where to live document
Project Eureka (the Collins’s town to move to project)
The Pragmatist’s Guide to Crafting Religion
TBC – You Are In Newcomb’s IQ Shredder
TBC – CyberChristianity
Scott Alexander – The Toxoplasma Of Rage
Unweaving The Rainbow
Bonus Chat with Aella at Patreon, and at SubStack
0:00:17 – Simone & Malcolm
1:18:54 – Guild of the Rose Update
1:20:17 – Less Wrong Posts
1:40:10 – Thank the Patron

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.



Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
Explaining vs. Explaining Away
Fake Reductionism
Next Sequence Posts:
Savanna Poets
Joy in the Merely Real




210 – Demographic Collapse & Religion with Simone & Malcolm Collins

Steven and Eneasz regale each other and you with our stories, experiences, and takeaways from VibeClipse.
The video Eneasz mentioned with him and especially Jen reacting to totality. 

166 – Getting Lucky

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