The Bayesian Conspiracy

By The Bayesian ConspiracySociety & Culture Philosophy

The Bayesian Conspiracy episodes

October 28 273 – Vaden Masrani on… Critical Rationalism?
Crit-rat Vaden Masrani of the Increments podcast joins us to talk about the difference between Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Rationalism. We get kinda side-tracked, Eneasz isn’t happy about it.
LINKS
Vaden’s Podcast: Increments
Eneasz’s post about this episode
Winter 2027 AFFINE Alignment Seminar
Takeoff Conference
GPU World Short Story Contest
Economies of Force — Seth Dickinson’s short story
TBC 267 – Our HuggingFace Hack Episode
Adam Majmudar on the Interpretability Breakthrough
The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson
Scott Alexander’s Open Letter to Steven Pinker on AI
Dillon Plunkett on the AI Pain Axis
TBC 245 – Our AI Welfare Episode with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell
TBC 218 – Our Bentham’s Bulldog Episode
Vaden on Learning Bayesian Statistics #160: Bayesian Statistics vs Epistemology
The Precipice by Toby Ord
Beautiful Probability — Eliezer Yudkowsky
When (Not) To Use Probabilities — Eliezer Yudkowsky
No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws — Eliezer Yudkowsky
Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years by Vaclav Smil
A Case Against Strong Longtermism — Vaden Masrani
The Case for Strong Longtermism — Greaves and MacAskill (September 2019 Draft)
Pascal’s Mugging
00:00:01 – Intro & Feedback
00:20:02 – Vadan on Critical Rationalism
01:54:55 – Follow-up
01:58:51 – Thank a Supporter
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
LessWrong Sequence Posts Coming Up Next:
Returning in 2027!
2 hr 1 min
October 11 BayesWatch – Stephan on EA/Rat differences, Iliad Intensive, & the AI Safety Musical
Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven
See this video on YouTube
Apply to the Illiad Intensive
Out of this Box – the AI Musical
55 min
October 07 272 – Rat Goss, and Podcast Meta
A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast.
LINKS
Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund
TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE
OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns
Clause stopped cheating
Anthropic gave their AI a biolab
Department of War going after Effective Altruism
The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social movement”
Our Episode #28 – Effective Altruism
AI Pain Vector found
AI Torture Chamber built
The Curve impressions
The first anti-slutcon tweet :/
SFF announcing they are defunding Wentworth
Habryka re Wentworth
HPMOR is a Tomione ship!
The “Hard Problem” in a nutshell
BayesWatch
Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus. maybe returning someday
2 hr 7 min
September 29 BayesWatch – Moma: Aella makes her community safer for women
Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience.
See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
34 min
September 23 271 – PlzDontKillUs, and Tell Your Parents, w Keltan
We talk to Keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares.
LINKS
Keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack, don’t tell him we linked it!)
Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on TikTok, Insta, YouTube, and Twitter
Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus. maybe returning someday
1 hr 37 min
September 14 270 – The AIs Aren’t Aligned and Everyone Is Finally Noticing, w Matt Freeman
We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big.
LINKS
Rick Rescorla, a 9/11 hero we talk about
Our previous episodes on The Void pt1 and pt2, and GPT3
Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities
Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus. maybe returning someday.
1 hr 49 min
August 26 269 – The Power of Specificity in Argument
A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron.
LINKS
The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments
The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC
I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com
BayesWatch
Ordinary Abundance
Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video
00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback
00:54:58.000 – Specificity
01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus. maybe returning someday.
1 hr 47 min
August 16 BayesWatch – Vishal: Short form video is kinda Satanic
Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom!
Vishal’s Blog
Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest
1 hr 24 min
August 12 268 – The Other Sexual Orientation & Disappearing the Kinky
Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared.
LINKS
The Other Sexual Orientation
A Bad Tweet
The Sex & Sensibility Podcast
The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi
Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video
00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident
00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation
00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet
01:29:57 – Guild of the Rose
01:32:16 – Thank the Supporter!
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus. maybe returning someday.
1 hr 37 min
August 07 BayesWatch – Milo on PlzDontKillUs, short form video, and rationality
Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
plzdontkillus – https://portal.plzdontkillus.com/home?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
Original video:
36 min