Blain’s Morning Porridge – December 1st, 2025: Gilts indicate Stability – what is generating the noise?

 There are lies, damned lies, statistics, and the Torygraph – where even Lucifer fears to tread.”

 There is a lot of noise in Gilts these days. The danger is it derails national confidence – even though much of the clamour is twaddle. The reality is all Governments face challenges, but the UK’s Gilts market is much stronger and more resilient that the right-wing press would care to admit.

The most famous quote about bond markets is “I want to come back as the bond markets. You can intimidate everybody.” Its ascribed to James Carville, Bill Clinton’s lead political strategist. Back in its heyday it recognised the supposed threat Bond Vigilantes hold over bonds – picturing them as a bandof furies ready to leap upon governments or financial authorities on any sign of foolishness, backsliding or bad policy.

Given all the noise about the UK government budget there are many who think a UK Bond crisis is imminent. Relax – ignore the noise, understand where it is coming from (and why), and be analytical about it.

Let’s start by asking how the market reacted to the budget? No stress. No Drama. Yields tightened. Markets accepted it for what it was – best of a bad job. Yet, the weekend was full of yet more drama, and the predicable hypocrisy of failed politicians demanding heads for doing what they would have done.

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