In this episode of Fixed + Floating, Josef Pschorn speaks with Tim Riminton, Senior Credit Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, about China's chemicals capacity flood, Europe's energy shock, and why INEOS sits at the epicenter of the sector's worst downcycle in years.

Tim and Josef unpack the INEOS divergence: Group Holdings' €700M Project One ethane arbitrage catalyst versus Quattro's 15% yielding bonds and €1bn 2027 refinancing wall. They explore Ratcliffe's cash-leaking conglomerate empire (F1, autos, oil/gas), ring-fenced debt boxes, and what PVC demand signals say about global cyclicals.
From 9x leverage to covenant stress, this reveals the credit playbook for HY/IG PMs tracking chemicals distress and fallen-angel risks.

Key breakdowns:

• 3-year chemical overcapacity crisis + China policy impacts
• INEOS Group vs. Quattro: leverage, assets, risks
• Project One: US ethane (€800/ton) → Europe sales (€1,200/ton)​
• Refinancing walls, 15% yields, covenant stress​

Disclaimer: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Consult professionals before investing.

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Recorded: Dec 2025

#ineos #ChemicalsOvercapacity #HighYield #CreditStress #ProjectOne #fixedfloating #creditpodcast