Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
 
We calculate the incentive price of oil needed to ensure that the world has enough investment—and oil—in 2030 and to close the supply-demand gap of over 4 mbd. Assuming 2% inflation, the low end of the range for the Brent incentive price sits at about $63 based on an IRR of 20%. An IRR of 25% moves the incentive price to $78/bbl. Under a 4% inflation scenario, the range is $80 to $100.
This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2023.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381901-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Oil 2030: Long Term Incentive Oil price

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Oil demand grew by 1.33 mbd in 1Q24, with crude-derived products such as gasoline and diesel comprising only 40% of that growth, compared to petrochemical products that use lighter natural gas liquids as a feedstock. In April, half of the 1.3 mbd YoY rise in reported demand came from petrochemicals, marking the shift into more crude-heavy summer consumption. Oil demand is moving from a seasonally low April and May into a peak summer travel season. Importantly, the composition in demand growth will likely shift from liquids-heavy petrochemicals to crude-rich products like gasoline and jet fuel. We still expect overall market fundamentals to improve and see a similar price action as observed last summer, with Brent oil moving $10 higher from current levels by September.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4711902-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Demand for oil is good, just not for crude

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges discuss the medium-term outlook for Treasury supply and the risks to the Treasury market ahead of next week’s first-tier data.
 
Speakers:
US Treasury Market Daily – Jay Barry
US Fixed Income Markets Weekly – Jay Barry
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708661-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: Wait till next year

FX markets focus will become US-centric with payrolls, CPI and FOMC on the calendar. But June also brings other G10 central bank meetings. We discuss outlook for currencies going into this key month and event risk.
 
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715460-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: G10 central bank meetings and read-across for currencies

Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Fabio Bassi and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. They cover the upcoming May ECB meeting, valuations in swap and bond space views on swap spreads, the upcoming French ratings review and the relevance of European Parliamentary and the UK general election for rate markets. 
 
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates : A round up of hot topics for European rate markets

Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, revisit the forces behind the Mexican peso’s regime shift from a high-beta risk proxy to a lower-beta currency on a trend-appreciation path as Mexico benefits from the geopolitical dividends of nearshoring. They also touch upon upcoming risks around elections, as well as valuations.
 
SpeakersLuis Oganes, Global Head of Macro ResearchSaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets StrategyTania Escobedo Jacob, Emerging Markets Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 28 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4703117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Oil 2030: Long Term Incentive Oil price

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