Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Yahoo:-
BiS Sees Speculative Bubbles in Gold and US StocksFeatured Analysis:
* Continues in the premium post: Reset: How To Survive The New Economic Order
Michael Oliver: The Bigger Game Has Just Begun
* Publishes December 16th 11am
News & Analysis:
ICYMI
Coming Soon/ Chat:
Data on Deck: Unemployment, CPI
* MONDAY, DEC. 15 Home builder confidence index
* TUESDAY, DEC. 16 8:30 am U.S. employment report
* WEDNESDAY, DEC. 17 None scheduled
* THURSDAY, DEC. 18 CPI
* FRIDAY, DEC. 19 Existing Home Sales
Charts and Final Market Check:
TL;DR Unemployment Prep
* Jobs data skewed to downside risk: November payrolls are expected around +50k, but multiple proxies (ADP, RevelioLabs, Powell’s own comments) suggest true job growth may be near zero or negative once overcounting is adjusted.
* Unemployment drifting higher: The jobless rate is expected to rise to ~4.5%, potentially the highest since 2021, reinforcing evidence of gradual labor-market softening.
* Policy bias turning dovish: Powell emphasized downside labor risks over inflation, acknowledged a ~60k monthly payroll overcount, and markets are pricing more Fed cuts in 2026 than the Fed officially projects.
* Markets vulnerable to a miss: With equities positioned for optimism and volatility low, a weaker-than-expected labor print could hit risk assets, support rate cuts, pressure the dollar, and favor front-end bonds.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe