Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“Comex is dying”

Topic:

* Howard Marks on the Logic of Free Trade

* Platinum's Turn

Market Analysis:

In a private letter to his fund investors this month, Howard Marks delivered a comprehensive critique of interventionist economic policy, emphasizing that efforts to override fundamental economic laws—such as supply and demand, incentives, and market pricing—tend to produce more harm than good.

* Continues in the Premium post: Howard Marks: The Logic of Free Trade

Platinum's Turn

Yesterday’s Market Rundown

In yesterday morning’s Premium Post Gold and Silver Outlook for 2025; we laid out why the Platinum rally would likely continue. One factor not properly processed by banks calling for it to be only temporary, in our opinion, was China demand. We continually hear of the high price of platinum and silver being detrimental to further Chinese demand. But we believe that is wrong.

Continuing from that analysis

The price of platinum and silver are not high. We believe the high price of gold is driving demand into the white metals by Asians seeing value.Certainly the banks are not long silver—we know this for sure. And many (most?) were short platinum before the face-ripping rally that just happened.

During the day we initiated a position and let subscribers know in a minipod

From that post: Trading wise, we put on a position. We got long platinum with the spot market trading 1338 for a reference point.

We will be taking off 2/3 of this trade today.

If you want to know more about the Platinum situation, our focused coverage started in March advising readers to keep an eye on the forgotten metal. In June alone GoldFix wrote 6 pieces extolling the virtues of Platinum. Here are the ones to read if you seek to get caught up on this delayed but increasingly strong move.

Related Posts:

Data on Deck: Powell and PCE

* MONDAY, JUNE 23 10:00 am Existing home sales

* TUESDAY, JUNE 24 10:00 am Fed Chair Powell testifies to House

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25 10:00 am New home sales

* THURSDAY, JUNE 26 10:00 am Pending home sales

* FRIDAY, JUNE 27 8:30 am PCE index

* Full calendar

Charts and Final Market Check

Platinum

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Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“Comex is dying”

Topic:

* Gold and Silver Price Drivers for Rest of 2025.

Market Analysis:

Going forward, we believe macroeconomic data and Fed policy are seen as the most likely catalysts for the next leg higher in gold. A strong upside trigger will be required to break all-time highs for now. While that seems improbable in the short term, if we have learned nothing these past few years, we have learned not to underestimate the political inclination to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Topics covered include: Where We Are and How We got Here Positioning Remains Light Despite Eastern Buying, China's white metal demand Geopolitical Drivers Tamped Down, Political Incompetence

* Continues in Premium : Gold and Silver Outlook for Rest of 2025

Related Posts:

Data on Deck: Powell and PCE

* MONDAY, JUNE 23 10:00 am Existing home sales

* TUESDAY, JUNE 24 10:00 am Fed Chair Powell testifies to House

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25 10:00 am New home sales

* THURSDAY, JUNE 26 10:00 am Pending home sales

* FRIDAY, JUNE 27 8:30 am PCE index

* Full calendar

Charts and Final Market Check

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“Comex is dying”

Topic:

* German, Italian Gold Repatriation Cries Grow Louder

* Tactical Gold Comments

Market Analysis:

Turns out this is now a growing risk to global bullion markets. Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that Germany and Italy are under mounting pressure to move their gold reserves—currently held in New York— back to Europe.

While we do not expect these cries from an increasing number of politicians to convince the Neo-Liberal establishment, we do expect behind the scenes governments are scheming how to fix this without roiling a bullion market already in turmoil from recent LBMA member failure to deliver to the US.

-More analysis in Premium

Related Posts:

Coming Now: $3300?

Tactical concerns today

Data on Deck: Powell and PCE

* MONDAY, JUNE 23 10:00 am Existing home sales

* TUESDAY, JUNE 24 10:00 am Fed Chair Powell testifies to House

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2510:00 am New home sales

* THURSDAY, JUNE 26 10:00 am Pending home sales

* FRIDAY, JUNE 27 8:30 am PCE index

* Full calendar

Charts and Final Market Check

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“Comex is dying”

Topic:

* Gold and Oil in Wake of Iran Escalation

Market Analysis:

* Full analysis in Premium later today

Related Posts:

Coming Soon:

Data on Deck: Powell and PCE

* MONDAY, JUNE 23 10:00 am Existing home sales

* TUESDAY, JUNE 24 10:00 am Fed Chair Powell testifies to House

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2510:00 am New home sales

* THURSDAY, JUNE 26 10:00 am Pending home sales

* FRIDAY, JUNE 27 8:30 am PCE index

* Full calendar

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver semi-annual monetary policy report testimony be-fore the House Financial Services Committee during a two-day session beginning Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday.

Summary and Final Market Check…

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Citibank says it's bearish on gold. We suspect it’s talking to producers, not investors. Their past calls helped oil clients hedge before prices dropped. Now, signs point to gold miners selling forward into high prices. The public call may mask private flows. Watch producer activity. Pressure on gold could build.

Key Timestamps:

* 0:00- Intro

* 0:38- Quick comment on yesterday’s The Bearish Buck Stops Here?

* 4:10- Final Word on Citi Report

We connect some dots in context of 3 reports: Miners, Oil, and Rate cuts; also footnoted here

* 19:17- Flow Show starts

Recaps what Hartnett feels versus what his Euro clients feel.

* 27:58- More Gold comments.

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“Comex is dying”

Topic:

* Goldman Reiterates $4,00 Target, Counters Citi's Bear Call

Market Analysis:

In a note from Precious metals analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, (the same who most recently stated Gold and Oil are buys), Goldman underscores the structural underpinnings of gold demand, driven not by retail investors or speculative flows, but by central bank accumulation suprises. They also note Despite gold trading near all-time highs due to Middle East tensions, speculative positioning remains curiously subdued:

“Speculative inflows into gold have been muted and positioning remains unusually low given the macro uncertainty.” [ or perhaps Comex is dying, and buying is moving eastward]

Goldman also holds the line on its high-conviction forecast:

“We maintain our forecast…$3,700/toz by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, and we reiterate our long gold trade recommendation.” [ on continued CB demand

* Full analysis in the Premium post: Goldman Stands Firm on $4,000 Call Post Citi's Bear Call

Related Posts:

Later Today and This Weekend:

Data on Deck: Fed Week

* MONDAY, JUNE 16 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing

* TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 am U.S. retail sales

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18 8:30 am Housing starts, 2:00 pm FOMC rate decision

* THURSDAY, JUNE 19 None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday

* FRIDAY, JUNE 20 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed survey

* Full calendar

Summary and Final Market Check…

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“The reset is a process, not an event”

Topic:

* Citi Expects Gold To Crack $3,000, Industrials to Outperform

Market Analysis:

After a remarkable three-year rally, Citi is calling time on gold's bull market. In their latest commodities outlook, analysts project that an improving macroeconomic environment — fueled by fiscal and monetary stimulus — will shift capital out of gold and back into cyclical assets. The forecast suggests a gradual reversion below the $3,000/oz threshold by late 2026, with prices falling as low as $2,500/oz.

Citi expects additional rate cuts ahead and believes these will prompt sidelined capital to flow into the broader economy rather than into gold, while also suggesting that geopolitical risks are nearing their peak; Goldman, however, pushed back in their own analysis, reaffirming their position—more on that this weekend, and full context is provided in the attached voice note.

* Full analysis in the Premium post Audio: Citi Sees Gold’s “Last Hurrah” as Growth Outlook Improves.

Related Posts:

Coming Soon:

Data on Deck: Fed Week

* MONDAY, JUNE 16 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing

* TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 am U.S. retail sales

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18 8:30 am Housing starts, 2:00 pm FOMC rate decision

* THURSDAY, JUNE 19 None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday

* FRIDAY, JUNE 20 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed survey

* Full calendar

Summary and Final Market Check…

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“The reset is a process, not an event”

Topic:

* Silver Surge

* Fed Day

Market Analysis:

Silver began its rally early in the European session, with buying pressure accelerating around 5 a.m. ET, shortly after the London market opened. Prices jumped from $36.54 to $37.16 in under an hour, ultimately hitting a high of $37.25 by midday before settling just below that at $37.09. That represents a 1.5% gain, outperforming all other major metals.

* Full analysis in the Premium post GoldFix PM: The Silver Bull Begins

Stocks are very dovishly biased these past two weeks. There is one reason to not be so biased bullish. The Fed Dot Plot still shows a bias of 2 rate cuts this year. All eyes will be on that for revisions downward towards one cut, which is increasingly likely given the clock is now at midyear.

* Continues in Premium’s FOMC: Powell's Risks Contradicting himself today

Related Posts:

Coming Soon:

Lots…

Data on Deck: Fed Week

* MONDAY, JUNE 16 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing

* TUESDAY, JUNE 178:30 am U.S. retail sales

* WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18 8:30 am Housing starts, 2:00 pm FOMC rate decision

* THURSDAY, JUNE 19 None scheduled, Juneteenth holiday

* FRIDAY, JUNE 20 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed survey

* Full calendar

Summary and Final Market Check…

* June 30th for Silver

* BRICS Summit Starting Soon

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Use transcript and keyword search for each topic

1. Open Interest and Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis

* Initial discussion of silver and gold futures activity

* Focus on open interest changes and trader sentiment

* Setup of market context using COMEX data

2. Bollinger Bands and Technical Trading Strategies

* Silver trade example

* Introduction to using Bollinger Bands as signal filters

* Expansion into breakout criteria and risk management via options

3. Options Behavior and Derivative Insights in Metals

* Exploration of call buying by long swap dealers

* Analysis of options flow vs futures positioning

* Discussion on dealer hedging behavior and embedded signals

4. Macro Discretionary Traders and Market Psychology

* Identification of 10,000+ OI spikes as macro entries

* Contrast between macro behavior and CTA trend followers

* Commentary on who’s driving direction in current markets

5. WTI vs. Brent Oil Structural Shifts and Global Demand Centers

* Eastward shift in oil market pricing centers

* Complexity of oil contracts (ICE vs CME)

* Brief reflections on demand shifts post-North Sea

6. The Role of China in Physical Gold and Silver Demand

* China's buying patterns (Shanghai hours vs fix buying)

* Central bank influence and changes in behavior

* Structural discussion around OTC vs COMEX dynamics

7. Middle East Geopolitics and Implications for Oil and Gold

* Extended dialogue on Israeli-Iran conflict

* Implications for oil supply and safe-haven flows

* Interplay between diplomacy, military signaling, and commodities

8. Caucasus Region’s Strategic Importance in Global Energy and Trade

* Historical and geopolitical value of the region

* Reference to Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard

* Strategic pipelines, Caspian control, and Silk Road context

9. Volatility Cycles and Liquidity Behavior in Commodities

* Volume-per-price movement ratio framework

* Use of “fishhook” price-action models

* Trading sheet concept: reading buying strength through OI behavior

10. Fish hook origin: Educational Commentary on Historical Market Behavior and Trader Psychology

* Anecdotes from options trading floor-

* Real-time behavioral examples from banks and funds

* Application of theory to trade execution and risk management

Gold:

Silver:

short dealers are NOT happy here

fear vs greed now

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Housekeeping: Happy Father’s Day.

Main Topics:

* 0:00- Intro

* 1:30- Start

* 15:17- Main Section: read through of his notes juxtaposed with charts