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Even though there is consensus that gold has probably already hit its 2025 high point and is unlikely to go beyond the all-time-record it set in October when it breached the $4 300/oz mark, a Santa gold rally during the Christmas period and into year-end should not be ruled out.

Also, while the incomplete reopening of US administration is encouraging, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) needs to return with key risk-assessment data required by the Federal Reserve as all eyes focus on December 10 when a further interest rate change could have implications for gold.

Moreover, the indication of the US Supreme Court that tariff implementation is probably beyond executive office scope could also impact.

These and several more points are made by World Gold Council senior market strategists John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni in their latest episode on gold market developments, gold price movements, the impact of political events in Washington, and year-end gold predictions.

The World Gold Council's latest GoldHub also provides an update on China's gold market, where stability and growth are prevalent, and on India's peak Diwali and Dhanteras peak gold-buying occasions.

Regarding China, World Gold Council research head in China Ray Jia reports that gold capped further gains in October, with wholesale gold demand defying seasonal patterns, rising to 124 t.

Chinese gold exchange trade funds (ETFs) added 34 t worth at $4.5-billion last month, and gold futures volumes surged at the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The People's Bank of China, which has reported gold purchases 12 months in a row, added 0.9 t in October, lifting the total to 2 304 t, 8% of China's foreign exchange reserves and 24 t higher than at the end of 2024.

Looking ahead, the recent Chinese gold market value-added tax (VAT) change is likely to put pressure on local gold jewellery demand as the sector is impacted by additional tax. But consumer sensitivity to price may also be lessening as the gold price has been rising steadily for more than three years now.

The VAT change does not apply to gold bars sold by Shanghai Gold Exchange members, gold ETFs or gold accumulation plans, and there may be further room for growth in gold bar sales, as consumers may purchase them for jewellery making purposes, Jia adds.

World Gold Council's Reade and Cavatoni also analyse the sentiment from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and London Platinum and Palladium Market Global Precious Metals Conference 2025 in Kyoto and the implications of upcoming economic data on gold prices, amid gold calming down from its $4 300/oz October breaching and correcting below $4 000/oz.

"Gold now seems to have stabilised broadly around the $4 000/oz level," said Reade, based on conversations with participants at the LBMA conference in Kyoto, for example.

"I think that seems to be the consensus that we've probably seen the highs of the year.

Based on conversations on the US side, Cavatoni agreed and spoke of the US sentiment being the same - "pretty calm, pretty much interested in looking forward at the gold price and understanding that the short-term volatility is something to expect.

Reade: I was speaking to a couple of hedge fund managers that I chat to from time to time, they expect the same. They think most of the work has been done in gold this year, but don't rule out a bit of a Santa rally into Christmas and into the end of the year, as fund managers want to establish positions that they can have for 2026 and also show their chief investment officers that, yes, they're the gold guy, and they are long gold. Never does any harm with that. Now, Santa rallying is something that comes through in equity markets, particularly in the US sometimes, so into the holiday season ...