China is escalating its standoff with the United States, markets are flashing mixed signals beneath record highs, and the AI compute race is exposing real cracks as costs surge and reliability falters. As we close out 2025, this episode breaks down rising geopolitical risk, fragile financial structures, what Salesforce’s pivot says about the limits of today’s AI, and why energy jobs may be one of the clearest growth stories heading into 2026.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN

• Why China sanctioned U.S. defense firms and executives over Taiwan
• What private equity’s reliance on continuation vehicles signals for markets
• Why AI infrastructure debt is raising alarms despite massive investment
• What Salesforce’s Agentforce rollback reveals about LLM limits
• How Big Tech’s compute spending is reshaping capital allocation
• Why energy and grid jobs may dominate growth in 2026

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — China, Markets, AI & Energy

01:13 China Retaliates — Taiwan, Sanctions & Defense Firms

03:56 Market Signals — Record Highs, Hidden Stress

04:17 Private Equity — Continuation Vehicles Explained

06:06 AI Debt Boom — Infrastructure Costs & Risk

07:10 Central Banks — Rate Cuts & Stagflation Fears

08:49 Salesforce — AI Accuracy, Costs & Reality Check

12:01 AI Compute Race — Google, Microsoft & Amazon CapEx

13:52 Energy Jobs — Power, Grid & Workforce Growth

15:13 Takeaway — Fragile Systems, Real Opportunities

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

• China Hits US Defense Firms After Taiwan Arms Sale: https://apnews.com/article/china-sanctions-us-companies-arm-sale-taiwan-31e1bdef85a4cae9a765b189497ca3bf
• China Expands Sanctions on American Defense Firms: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/china-sanctions-20-u-s-defense-companies-and-10-executives-over-taiwan-arms-sale
• China’s Retaliation: Symbolic Sanctions on US Firms: https://www.thehill.com/policy/international/5663607-china-sanctions-us-defense-firms-taiwan-weapons-sale
• Private Equity’s ‘Rot’ Warning Shakes Wall Street: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/business/private-equity-continuation-funds.html
• Continuation Funds Boom as PE Seeks New Exits: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-10/continuation-funds-surge-as-private-equity-firms-seek-new-exit-paths
• AI Borrowing Boom Raises Red Flags for Investors: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/business/ai-debt-investors.html
• AI Startups Load Up on Debt Amid Investor Frenzy: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/business/dealbook/debt-has-entered-the-ai-boom.html
• Nvidia’s Financing Deals Show the New AI Economy: https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2025/12/nvidia-ai-financing-deals/685197/
• Major Central Banks Deliver Biggest Rate Easing Yet: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/major-central-banks-deliver-biggest-easing-push-over-decade-2025-2025-12-23/
• Salesforce Shifts Strategy as LLM Trust Declines: https://thein.fo/3MPLLPl
• Executives Admit Growing Doubt in Generative AI Models: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/salesforce-executives-say-trust-generative-ai-declined
• Salesforce Quietly Hires 6,000 During AI Skeptic Shift: https://venturebeat.com/technology/while-everyone-talks-about-an-ai-bubble-salesforce-quietly-added-6-000
• Google Doubles CapEx to $93B for AI Infrastructure: https://thein.fo/48PalbK
• Global Energy Jobs Surge Twice as Fast as Overall Economy: https://www.iea.org/news/energy-employment-has-surged-but-growing-skills-shortages-threaten-future-momentum
• IEA: Energy Employment Tops 76 Million Despite Skill Gaps: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-employment-2025
• Full list: https://youtu.be/fbk7ysg9WFc

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China’s vehicle export surge is colliding with U.S. tariffs, squeezing global auto jobs and supply chains. At the same time, new signs suggest advanced AI chips are still reaching China despite export controls. We also cover soaring healthcare costs, major VA staffing cuts, rising CEO turnover, and a telling consumer signal as America’s largest bourbon maker prepares to go dark in 2026.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN

• How China’s auto export glut is disrupting global markets and U.S. manufacturers
• Why tariffs are driving higher costs, logistics bottlenecks, and factory closures
• How AI chip smuggling is undermining U.S. export controls
• Why healthcare premiums are set to surge and what it means for consumers
• How VA staffing cuts could worsen access for veterans
• Why CEO turnover is rising even at high-performing companies
• What falling demand for spirits signals about consumer behavior

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Autos, Tariffs, AI, Healthcare & Leadership

00:44 Auto Fallout — China’s Export Glut & Global Spillover

01:57 Logistics Shock — Costs, Bottlenecks & Job Risk

03:28 U.S. Impact — Tariffs, Chips & Sales Declines

04:00 Europe Hit — Germany’s Auto Shutdowns

05:21 Germany–China Decoupling — Trade & Investment Pullback

06:01 Semiconductor Risk — Stockpiles & Production Delays

07:15 AI Chips — Sanctions, Smuggling & Enforcement Gaps

08:25 Healthcare Costs — Premium Hikes Ahead

09:22 VA Cuts — Providers, Offices & Veteran Access

10:18 CEO Turnover — Why Boards Are Resetting Leadership

11:18 Consumer Signal — Jim Beam Halts Production

12:15 Takeaway — What This Means for 2026

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📚 SOURCES & DATA:

• China Gas Cars Flood Global Overcapacity Crisis: https://www.reuters.com/investigations/china-floods-world-with-gasoline-cars-it-cant-sell-home-2025-12-02/learningrevolution
• China EV Boom Hides Massive ICE Export Surge: https://www.carscoops.com/2025/12/chinas-ev-boom-is-hiding-a-much-bigger-ice-export-shock/bluehost
• Auto Logistics Q4 2025 Tariffs Supply Chain Crisis: https://www.automotivelogistics.media/supply-chain/automotive-logistics-and-supply-chains-q4-2025-cost-pressures-tariff-uncertainty-and-supply-chain-disruption-continues-to-plague-the-industry/2126758learningrevolution
• Auto Plant Shutdowns 500K US Jobs Risked: https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/car-manufacturing-plant-shutdowns-could-cost-half-million-us-jobsbluehost
• VW Closes German Factory Europe Auto Crisis: https://www.ft.com/content/d7d0fbc8-2e92-49c5-be38-1412d8392fa9learningrevolution
• VW Dresden Closure Steel Industry Hit Auto Slowdown: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/volkswagen-closes-dresden-plant-as-market-pressures-mount-1424818.htmkfflearningrevolution
• Germany Dumps China Ties Europe Auto Decoupling: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/why-germany-wants-a-divorce-with-china-0d59fb81learningrevolution
• Tariffs Wreck Autos: https://youtu.be/cM7Bu2DJvTw 
• China Tencent Buys Nvidia Blackwell Chips Tariff Dodge: https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-tencent-nvidia-blackwell-chips-cloud-9d5e5998? 
• US Sells Out AI to China for Nothing: https://youtu.be/UphXmFOYUU8
• Nvidia Partner Megaspeed Happily Smuggling AI Chips to China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-12-22/nvidia-partner-megaspeed-draws-china-chip-smuggling-concerns-in-us  
• Ample AI Chip Smuggling Evidence: https://youtu.be/tFp6JtBTjao 
• ACA Premiums Spike 26% 2026 Obamacare Shock: https://www.kff.org/quick-take/aca-insurers-are-raising-premiums-by-an-estimated-26-but-most-enrollees-could-see-sharper-increases-in-what-they-pay/bluehost
• VA Abruptly Cuts Thousands of Health Care Jobs: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/12/13/va-veterans-affairs-job-cuts-trump  
• VA Dramatically Cutting Back Regional Offices for Veterans Health Care: https://www.militarytimes.com/veterans/2025/12/17/va-to-launch-largest-reorganization-of-health-care-system-in-30-years/  
• Full list: https://youtu.be/fbOx5HsYMoo

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TikTok finally has a deal, the Oscars are moving off broadcast TV and onto YouTube, and the AI boom is starting to show real stress as the White House pushes to block states from regulating it. At the same time, the jobs report is weakening, manufacturing and younger workers are feeling the pressure, and falling inflation isn’t bringing the relief many expected as we head toward 2026.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN

* How TikTok’s U.S. deal works and why it may still fail regulatory tests

* Why the Oscars moving to YouTube signals a deeper media power shift

* What Warner Bros. Discovery’s board sees as red flags in Paramount’s bid

* Why AI valuations are slipping and legacy innovators are collapsing

* How the White House is trying to stop states from regulating AI

* What the latest jobs and inflation data really say about the economy

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Jobs, Inflation, TikTok, AI & Media

00:33 TikTok Deal — Ownership, Algorithms & China Approval

02:41 Media Shift — Oscars to YouTube

03:14 Warner Bros. vs Paramount — Financing & Foreign Ownership

05:43 AI Market Stress — CoreWeave, Oracle & Broadcom

07:07 iRobot Collapse — Tariffs & Industrial Fallout

08:38 AI Regulation Fight — White House vs States

10:48 Jobs Report — Rising Unemployment & Revisions

12:45 Inflation Update — Cooling Prices, Rising Risks

13:38 Takeaway — A More Fragile Economy

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📚 SOURCES & DATA:

• Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX Circle TikTok Deal: Is a US Takeover Finally Here?: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/oracle-silver-lake-mgx-tiktok.htmlkff
• TikTok Deal Signed: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/18/tech/tiktok-signs-us-sale-deal 
• TikTok Creates New US Joint Venture: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-12-18-2025/card/tiktok-signs-deal-to-create-new-u-s-joint-venture-Mx6mQFbq3hIrloXa1I2k?mod=hp_lista_pos2 
• Paramount + WBD in Trouble? Why Old-School TV Networks Are Overpriced in the Streaming Era:https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/paramount-wbd-overvaluing-tv-networks-cnn-tbs-netflix-deal-1236604301/kff
• Warners Board Rejects Paramount Offer: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/warner-bros-discovery-board-rejects-rival-bid-paramount-2025-12-17/ 
• Roomba Maker iRobot Near Collapse: Can the Robot Vacuum Pioneer Survive Tariffs and Amazon’s Exit?:https://www.barrons.com/articles/irobot-roomba-bankruptcy-stock-price-amazon-c55c5435#:~:text=Intense%20competition%20from%20abroad%20and,[email protected]kff
• Tariffs Crush Roomba: How Trade Wars Pushed iRobot to the Brink of Bankruptcy:https://www.npr.org/2025/12/15/nx-s1-5644772/tariffs-roomba-irobot-bankruptcykff
• Breaking Jobs Data: New US Employment Report Shows Where the Labor Market Is Really Cooling:https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmkff
• Inside the Latest Jobs Report: November 2025 Employment Data and What It Signals for the Economy:https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12162025.htmkff
• Wall Street Reacts to November Jobs: What the New Employment Numbers Mean for Rates and Recession Risk:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/jobs-report-november-2025-.htmlkff
• Labor Department Jobs Breakdown: The Official Government View on November’s Employment Shake-Up:https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/economicdata/empsit_12162025.pdfkff
• Hot CPI Alert: Latest US Inflation Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmkff
• AI Executive Order: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/tech/ai-trump-states-executive-order 
• Trump’s New AI Order: How Washington Plans to Regulate Artificial Intelligence and Reshape Big Tech:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/technology/ai-trump-executive-order.htmlkff

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Farmers, automakers, and consumers are feeling the pressure as tariffs, policy reversals, and energy costs collide. This episode breaks down the U.S. government’s $12B farm bailout, Ford’s $19.5B EV write-off, rising winter energy prices, and a surprising Disney–OpenAI deal. We also cover the European Union’s expanding regulatory posture on social media, China, taxation, and geopolitics, and what it all signals heading into 2026.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN

- Why U.S. farmers are receiving emergency support after a brutal trade year

- What Ford’s EV write-off signals about the post-subsidy electric vehicle market

- How cold weather and fuel prices could hit households this winter

- Why Disney’s $1B OpenAI deal is raising shareholder concerns

- How the EU is tightening controls on tech, trade, and foreign investment

- Where geopolitical tax and trade tensions may escalate next

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Farmers, EVs, Energy, Disney & EU

00:30 U.S. Farm Bailout — $12B Tariff Relief Plan

01:33 EV Market Stress — Ford’s $19.5B Write-Off

02:17 EV Trends — China Exports vs U.S. Demand

03:20 Energy Outlook — Higher Winter Heating Costs

04:09 Media Deals — Disney, OpenAI & IP Risk

05:50 EU Policy Moves — Social Media, China, Taxes

07:15 Geopolitics — Trade Tensions & Global Fallout

08:12 Takeaway — Policy Pressure Into 2026

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

- Trump Admin Launches $12B Farmer Relief Amid Trade Fallout: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/12/08/trump-administration-announces-12-billion-farmer-bridge-payments-american-farmers-impacted-unfair

- Farm Leaders Say $12B Aid “Not Enough” As Costs Rise: https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2025/12/12-billion-farm-aid-package-not-enough-farm-leaders-say/

- EV Market 2025: Electric Vehicle Sales Surge & Market Share Update: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-salesFord Takes Massive EV Hit: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-takes-19-5-billion-charge-to-write-down-ev-investments-333a9bc4?mod=hp_lead_pos3

- U.S. Power Demand Hits Record Highs As Winter Energy Prices Surge: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66864

- Denmark Bans Social Media for Kids Under 15: https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-children-7862d2a8cc590b4969c8931a01adc7f4

- Denmark Introduces Child Social Media Ban With Parental Exemptions: https://cphpost.dk/2025-11-07/news/round-up/denmark-introduces-social-media-ban-for-children-under-15-with-parental-exemptions/

- EU Freezes Russian Assets Indefinitely Under Emergency Powers: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/12/11/eu-triggers-emergency-clause-to-indefinitely-immobilise-russian-assets

- EU Tightens Foreign Investment Screening Amid Security Concerns: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20250502IPR28218/european-parliament-endorses-new-screening-rules-for-foreign-investment-in-eu

- China’s Economy Slows As Foreign Investment Fades: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/business/china-investment-economy.html

- Paramount-Warner Bros Deal Could Shake Up Streaming Market: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/business/paramount-warner-bros-netflix-deal.html

- Warner Bros Investors Expect Paramount To Raise Its Offer: https://www.thewrap.com/warner-bros-shareholders-are-betting-paramount-will-make-a-higher-bid/

Full episode: https://youtu.be/B84tYj0MCR8

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Washington is reversing course on advanced AI chips, allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 into China in exchange for a slice of the revenue. On paper it is a controlled, “vetted customers” program. In practice it hands Beijing a major compute upgrade, plugs its biggest AI vulnerability, and raises real questions about whether the U.S. is trading strategic advantage for short-term chip sales.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN (SHORT & EXECUTIVE)

• Why the U.S. is now allowing Nvidia’s H200 into China after years of export bans
• How this changes China’s biggest AI weakness: access to high-end compute
• Why “25% of sales to the U.S. government” may be far less meaningful than it sounds
• How China’s copy-and-conquer playbook, domestic fabs, and energy edge amplify this move
• What this means for Nvidia’s dominance and rising rivals like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — AI Chips, China & A Wild Policy Reversal

00:36 U.S. Approves Nvidia H200 Sales — 25% Revenue Share & “Vetted” Buyers

01:26 National Security Risk — Export Controls, AI Arms Race & Military Concerns

01:47 China’s AI Ambition — More Threads IPO, Ex-Nvidia Leadership & Sanctions

02:41 Compute Gap — Huawei Ascend vs H200, U.S. 70% of Global AI Compute

03:33 How One Chip Matters — Networking, System-Level Risk & U.S. Advantage

04:19 Tariffs vs Tech — Why This Undercuts a Year of Trade Pain

04:52 Nvidia’s China Exposure — 15% Revenue, Weak H200 Forecasts & 25% of “Not Much”

05:38 Smuggling & Shadow Access — Grey Markets, Domestic Bans & Blackwell Angle

06:46 Copy & Conquer — Forced Tech Transfer, Joint Ventures & Decoupling Risk

08:04 China’s Structural Edge — Fabs Expansion & 500 GW of New Power vs U.S. 40 GW

09:32 Zero-Sum Rivalry — Trade Truces, Tariffs & Strategic Drift

11:12 Nvidia’s Moat Under Fire — TPUs, Trainium & Microsoft’s Fast-Follow Strategy

12:04 Takeaways — Have We Just Helped Our Main Rival Catch Up?

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

• US OKs Nvidia Chip Sales to China: https://www.semafor.com/article/12/09/2025/trump-says-nvidia-can-sell-h200-ai-chips-to-china
• China Limits Access to Nvidia H200 Despite US Export Approval: https://www.ft.com/content/c4e81a67-cd5b-48b4-9749-92ecf116313d
• Nvidia Expands China H2000 Exports: https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-china-exports-h2000-chips-5943aa48
• From Chips to Security, China’s Getting What it Wants: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/world/asia/nvidia-china-trump-security-japan.html 
• CFR: AI Chip Exports Backfire on U.S.: https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/consequences-exporting-ai-chips-china
• Exporting AI Chips Risks U.S. Lead: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/why-exporting-advanced-chips-to-china-endangers-us-ai-leadership/
• U.S. Chip Export Loopholes Exposed: https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2025/11/export-control-loopholes-chipmaking-tools-and-their-subcomponents
• Experts Slam 25% U.S. Nvidia Cut: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/12/us-taking-25-cut-of-nvidia-chip-sales-makes-no-sense-experts-say/
• AI Market War: U.S. vs. China Chips: https://youtu.be/nIp8HGLQeNI
• AI Chip Smuggling Exposed: https://youtu.be/tFp6JtBTjao
• Data Centers Face AI Compute Crunch: https://youtu.be/NTSwKZXtD1k
• Ford’s China Sales Collapse: https://youtu.be/2RJ9v-ZyZgE
• Inside China’s New 5-Year Plan: https://youtu.be/3F_zislTiKI
• China Leads AI Power Expansion: https://www.wsj.com/tech/china-ai-electricity-data-centers-d2a86935?mod=hp_lead_pos7
• China’s Moore Threads Challenges Nvidia: https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3335900/chinas-moore-threads-unveil-ai-chip-road-map-rival-nvidias-cuda-system
• China IP Theft & Tech Ambitions: https://www.nbr.org/program/commission-on-the-theft-of-intellectual-property/
• Full list: https://youtu.be/UphXmFOYUU8

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Roundup’s ghostwritten science just got officially retracted, right as Bayer faces tens of thousands of lawsuits and the EPA revisits safety claims. At the same time, Warner Bros Discovery is at the center of a multi-billion dollar bidding war, Meta is under renewed legal and regulatory fire, Anthropic is lining up a blockbuster IPO, China’s trade surplus has crossed $1 trillion, and U.S. defense procurement may be about to change how taxpayer money flows into the Pentagon–tech complex.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN (EXECUTIVE SUMMARY)

• How a ghostwritten Roundup study survived 25 years, shaped EPA decisions, and is only now being retracted.
• Why Warner Bros Discovery has triggered a three-way fight between Netflix, Paramount, and Comcast.
• How Meta is being squeezed by youth safety laws, litigation, and past internal research.
• Why Anthropic’s economics look stronger than OpenAI’s, and what Nvidia’s unsigned megadeal signals.
• How China’s record trade surplus is colliding with global political backlash.
• Why BrickStorm malware and expanded Pentagon OTA authority raise new questions on cyber risk and defense spending.

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Roundup, Warner Bros, AI, China & Defense

00:45 Roundup Study Retracted — Ghostwriting, WHO Cancer Risk & EPA Review

03:40 Warner Bros Discovery — Netflix Deal, Paramount Counterbid & Content Stakes

07:20 Meta Under Fire — Australia Youth Ban, Teen Safety & School District Lawsuits

08:55 Anthropic vs OpenAI — IPO Plans, Revenue Run-Rate & Chip Strategy

10:25 Nvidia–OpenAI Deal — $100B Not Signed & $500B Backlog

11:00 AI Pricing Law — New York’s Algorithm Disclosure Requirement

11:45 U.S. Auto Dealers — Record-Low Confidence & Profitability

12:55 China’s $1 Trillion Trade Surplus — Global Dumping Concerns

14:40 BrickStorm Malware — U.S. Declines Sanctions, CISA Warning to Enterprise

16:15 Defense Procurement — Expanded OTA Authority & Taxpayer Risk

18:00 Takeaways — Strategic Signals for Boards, Investors & Operators

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

• Roundup Study Retracted: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273230099913715?via%3Dihub
• Glyphosate Retraction Controversy: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/glyphosate-retraction-9.7004363
• EPA PFAS Hearing: https://youtu.be/St0hbKNG-bA
• Paramount $108B WBD Bid: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/08/business/paramount-hostile-takeover-bid-wbd
• WBD Takeover Talks: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/business/dealbook/paramounts-secret-bids-warner-bros-discovery.html
• Netflix Paramount Asset Swaps: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/wbd-bids-paramount-comcast-netflix-assets.html
• Australia Teen Social Ban: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/dec/04/social-media-ban-instagram-facebook-accounts-shutting-down-closing-teen-under-16-australia
• Meta Teen Harm Research: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/meta-internal-research-social-media-harm-court-filing.html
• Facebook Buried Teen Data: https://www.fastcompany.com/91448117/meta-andy-stone-facebook-depression
• Instagram Safety Tools Exposed: https://youtu.be/qUjzUioBjDo
• Anthropic IPO Prep: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-starts-early-ipo-prep-050114949.html
• NYC AI Pricing Law: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/nyregion/personalized-surveillance-pricing-ai-new-york.html
• Nvidia OpenAI $100B Deal: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3230523/nvidia-says-100-billion-openai-investment-framework-not-yet-finalized
• OpenAI Revenue Dispute: https://youtu.be/yJENBZ0GcIg
• China $1T Trade Surplus: https://on.ft.com/48KlpWs
• US Halts China Sanctions: https://www.ft.com/content/12345678-9abc-def0-1234-56789abcdef0
• China BrickStorm Malware: https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2025/12/04/prc-state-sponsored-actors-use-brickstorm-malware-across-public-sector-and-information-technology

Full list: https://youtu.be/a5dOhY6d9is

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OpenAI’s real revenue may be far lower than reported, fraud attacks are becoming highly sophisticated, China’s latest data shows structural economic strain, and automakers are reshaping strategy in response to tariffs and rare-earth pressures. We close with a clear snapshot of U.S. real estate stress heading into 2026.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN

• Why OpenAI’s revenue and inference costs may be wildly misaligned
• How Google and Amazon are scaling AI infrastructure at unprecedented speed
• What new fraud data reveals about advanced AI-driven deception
• Why China’s industrial economy is under renewed pressure
• How automakers are responding to tariffs and rare-earth scarcity
• How real estate stress is building across foreclosures, delinquencies and underwater homes

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — AI, Fraud, China, Autos & Real Estate

01:00 OpenAI Revenue Reality & Inference Cost Spike

02:10 Google’s 1000× Compute Goal & $93B AI Spend

02:50 Amazon’s Government AI Strategy & Trainium Access

03:25 U.S. Genesis AI Initiative — Unifying Federal Data

04:10 Fraud Trends — 180% Surge in Advanced Deception

05:10 AI Agents Driving End-to-End Fraud Operations

05:45 China Slowdown — Property, Investment & Manufacturing

07:00 China’s Export Dependence & Negative Growth Signals

07:40 Auto Market — Tariffs Push Chinese EV Makers Offshore

08:40 Rare-Earth Alternatives — Automakers Shift Designs

10:00 Costco Sues for Tariff Refunds

10:25 Real Estate — Foreclosures, Underwater Mortgages & Delinquencies

11:20 Takeaway — Strategic Outlook for 2026

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📚 SOURCES & DATA:

- OpenAI Revenue Far Below $13B Leak: https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs 

- OpenAI Microsoft Deal Fills Revenue Gap: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/14/leaked-documents-shed-light-into-how-much-openai-pays-microsoft 

- Alphabet Nvidia Dominate S&P 500 Gains: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025120160/alphabet-and-nvidia-alone-make-up-a-third-of-the-sp-500s-gains-this-year-in-a-sign-of-big-techs-dominance 

- AWS $50B AI Supercomputing Gov Investment: https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2025/11/aws-invest-50b-ai-and-supercomputing-infrastructure-government-customers/409744/ 

- Federal AI Initiative Boosts Science Discovery: https://spklr.io/6047BVTS5

- 2025 Fraud Surge: Agentic AI Scams Rise: https://sumsub.com/newsroom/sumsubs-annual-report-fraud-shifts-to-complex-multi-step-schemes-in-2025-agentic-ai-scams-poised-to-surge-in-2026/ 

- China Factory Activity Shrinks November 2025: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-factory-activity-shrinks-again-november-services-activity-cools-2025-11-30/ 

- China Investment Drop Signals Property Crisis: https://asiatimes.com/2025/11/chinas-investment-drop-highlights-property-driven-pressures/ 

- China October Data Fading Economic Momentum: https://think.ing.com/articles/china-october-data-shows-fading-momentum/ 

- China Economy Slows October 2025 Data: https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-economic-growth-momentum-slowed-in-october-b6d2786b 

- Chinese OEMs Expand Overseas EV Manufacturing: https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2025/11/chinese-oems-advance-overseas-vehicle-manufacturing 

- Eliminate Rare Earths EV Motor Supply Chain: https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2025/11/eliminating-rare-earth-elements-from-ev-motor-supply-chain 

- Rare Earths Crisis Deep Dive: https://youtu.be/WqT6UJXRR5Q

- Costco Sues Trump Tariffs Supreme Court: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/01/costco-sues-trump-tariffs-trade-supreme-court.html 

- 900K New Homeowners Underwater Mortgages: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-900-000-new-homeowners-are-underwater-on-their-mortgages-signaling-a-troubling-shift-in-the-housing-market-21fce9fc 

- CMBS Delinquency Drops But Lodging Climbs: https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cmbs-delinquency-rate-pulls-back-in-november-but-lodging-industrial-rates-climb 

Full list: https://youtu.be/yJENBZ0GcIg

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U.S. automakers are struggling, EV sales are collapsing without federal credits, consumer sentiment is sliding, and housing delistings just hit a record. We also break down Fitch’s warning on circular AI financing, China’s escalating chip restrictions, global anti-dumping responses, and two promising tech breakthroughs that may change EVs and water access. A fast, wide-angle look at the forces shaping the 2025 economy.

🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN (Short & Executive)

• Why U.S. auto sales and EV demand are falling sharply

• How consumer sentiment and housing delistings signal deeper economic strain

• Why Fitch warns AI financing has become dangerously circular

• How China is reshaping AI chip access, exports, and model deployment

• Why global markets are pushing back on China’s export surge

• Two emerging technologies that could reshape EVs and clean water access

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Autos, Economy, Housing, AI & Trade

01:00 Auto Decline — EV Sales Crash, Tesla -35%, Ford’s China Collapse

03:00 Consumer Sentiment — Near Historic Lows

03:30 Housing Market — Delistings Hit Record High

04:00 FDA Talc Rule Rollback — Public Health Concerns

05:00 Fitch Warning — Circular AI Financing & Systemic Risk

06:00 Meta Buys Google Chips — TPU Financing & Nvidia Pressure

07:00 China’s AI Strategy — Domestic Chips, Export Controls, SE Asia Workarounds

08:00 Forced-Labor Concerns — Italy Blocks China Tomato Paste

09:00 Global Anti-Dumping Push — EU, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea

10:00 U.S.–China Trade — Tariffs, Mexico Becomes Top U.S. Partner

10:40 Two Good News Stories — Sulfur EV Batteries & MIT Ultrasonic Water Capture

11:20 Takeaway — Strategic Outlook Moving Into 2026

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

- U.S. auto sales drop 8% in November, Cox warns slowdown: https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub/cox-automotive-forecast-nov-2025-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/

- Ford’s China arm made $900M but CEO calls EV fight brutal: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/fords-china-business-made-900-million-last-year-2025-04-16/

- Italy’s rejection of Chinese tomato paste triggers supply shock: https://www.europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/how-italys-rejection-of-chinese-tomato-paste-triggered-a-global-supply-shock/

- FDA proposal rolls back asbestos testing in talc cosmetics: https://www.fda.gov/cosmetics/cosmetics-news-events/fda-issues-proposed-rule-testing-methods-detecting-and-identifying-asbestos-talc-containing-cosmetic

- Cancer experts flag risks from talc and asbestos in cosmetics: https://www.cancer.org/cancer/risk-prevention/chemicals/talcum-powder-and-cancer.html

- Home sellers yank listings as housing market freezes up: https://www.redfin.com/news/delistings-jump-sellers-pull-homes-off-market/

- Consumer sentiment barely budges as shutdown, price fears linger: https://isr.umich.edu/news-events/news-releases/with-end-of-shutdown-and-worries-over-high-prices-consumer-sentiment-shows-minor-variation/

- China shifts AI model training overseas to tap Nvidia chips: https://www.ft.com/content/96fe9898-a3a4-4a33-be1d-da06bdb6cb2b

- China’s tech giants move AI training offshore to dodge U.S. curbs: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tech-giants-move-ai-model-training-overseas-tap-nvidia-chips-ft-reports-2025-11-27/

- Beijing orders ByteDance, Alibaba to halt Nvidia chip buys: https://thein.fo/49Ha6jW

- China aims to triple AI chip output, cut dependence on Nvidia: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-triple-ai-chip-output-reducing-nvidias-dependency-ft-says-2025-08-27/

- Regulators block ByteDance from using key foreign AI chips: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-regulators-block-bytedance-using-132621783.html

- Full list: https://youtu.be/2RJ9v-ZyZgE

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Rare earths went from a niche topic to a global flashpoint in 2025. China controls nearly the entire supply chain, the US is racing to rebuild its own, and the EU is taking a slower consensus-driven path. With tariffs, export bans, and strategic alliances reshaping the map, the minerals that power defense, autos, tech, and manufacturing are becoming the center of a geopolitical struggle.

🎯 DISCOVER

• Why China’s dominance over rare earth mining and processing is a strategic threat.
• How China’s September export restrictions triggered US and EU retaliation.
• Why the US is pursuing aggressive bilateral deals and direct government investments.
• How the EU is taking a slower, consensus-based sustainability approach.
• What Australia, Japan, Greenland and Southeast Asia represent in the minerals race.
• Why rare earth access is now core to national security heading into 2026.

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Why Rare Earths Matter

00:20 China’s Dominance & 2025 Escalation

01:20 Export Bans, Downstream Restrictions & Global Fallout

02:27 US and EU Reactions Diverge

03:24 US Investments — MP Materials, ReElement, Vulcan, Lithium Americas

04:45 Industrial Policy Expansion — Westinghouse, Intel, US Steel

05:42 EU Strategy — Slow, Sustainable, Consensus Driven

06:10 Global Alliances — Australia, Southeast Asia, Japan

07:46 Greenland — Strategic Minerals & Diplomatic Tension

08:38 US Speed vs EU Deliberation

09:09 Shared Challenge — Reducing Dependence on China

09:32 Closing

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

• China Tightens Rare Earth Export Controls 2025: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-tightens-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-10-09/
• Rare Earth Supply Crisis Explained: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/11/rare-earth-antimony-critical-mineral-supply/
• China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Threaten US Defense: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains
• EU Critical Minerals Stockpile Strategy 2025: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-stockpile-critical-minerals-amid-supply-chain-threats/
• China-Germany Pact to Ease Rare Earth Supply Strains: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/11/24/china-courts-germany-to-ease-rare-earth-strains-and-boost-strategic-ties/
• US Needs Rare Earth Refining Power, Not Just Supply: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/on-critical-minerals-the-us-needs-more-than-just-supply-it-needs-refining-power/

Full list: https://youtu.be/WqT6UJXRR5Q

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A sweeping new Lancet analysis shows ultra-processed foods damaging nearly every organ system in the body, even as obesity drugs reshape markets. Pair that with US EPA approving PFAS forever chemicals in food, corporate boards flagging major governance gaps, and a surge in AI-powered cyberattacks from nation states, and you get a picture of an economy and security landscape shifting faster than institutions can respond.

🎯 DISCOVER

- Shocking health and market implications of new research on ultra-processed foods.

- Why weight-loss drugs helped push Eli Lilly into the trillion-dollar tier.

- What’s behind the EPA’s latest approvals for PFAS chemicals.

- How missing federal data is complicating economic forecasting for the Fed.

- Why corporate boards say they’re unprepared for AI and cybersecurity risk.

- How geopolitics—from the G20 to US–China relations—are shifting trade dynamics.

- How AI is driving both major cyber threats and promising public-sector advances.

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — Food, AI, Cybersecurity & Geopolitics

01:00 Ultra-Processed Foods — Lancet Meta-Analysis & Global Health Risks

03:00 Eli Lilly Joins the Trillion-Dollar Club

04:00 EPA Approves New PFAS Chemical — Food Supply Concerns

05:00 Federal Data Blackout — BLS Jobs Report & Fed Flying Blind

07:00 Corporate Board Governance — Director Replacements & Skills Gap

08:30 Geopolitics — G20, India FDI, Rare Earths, U.S.–China Tensions

10:00 AI-Driven Cyber Attacks — Microsoft, Anthropic & Amazon Findings

13:30 AI for Public Good — Cities Using AI for Potholes & Waste

15:00 Takeaway — AI Risk, Chemical Policy & Data Failure

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

- Eating Ultra-Processed Foods Risk Health: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01565-X/abstract

- Ultra-Processed Foods Threaten Global Health: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/ultra-processed-foods-are-danger-global-public-health-experts-warn-2025-11-18/

- Ultra-Processed Foods and Metabolic Risks: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-025-01143-7

- California Bans Ultra-Processed School Lunches: https://youtu.be/qUjzUioBjDo

- EPA Loves PFAS Forever Chemicals: https://www.regulations.gov/document/EPA-HQ-OPP-2022-0354-0013

- Oct 2025 US Jobs Report Canceled by Shutdown: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/labor-department-wont-release-full-october-jobs-report-due-to-43-day-shutdown

- Revised 2025 US Labor Stats Release Dates: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

- US Food Insecurity Survey Canceled: https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/cancellation-of-food-insecurity-survey-a-blow-to-understanding-hunger-in-u-s/

- PwC 2025 Board Survey Shows Underperformance: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/governance-insights-center/library/annual-corporate-directors-survey.html

- NACD 2025 Boardroom Challenges Outlook: https://www.nacdonline.org/all-governance/governance-resources/governance-research/outlook-and-challenges/2025-governance-outlook/

- G20 2025 Africa Summit: https://apnews.com/article/g20-south-africa-summit-world-leaders-76e36aa669a8e05ff5ad5495cc1252ed

- Global Banks Bet on India 2025: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-20/global-banks-bet-billions-on-india-deals-amid-us-credit-jitters

- EU Opens Largest Rare Earth Magnet Factory: https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/whats-new/newsroom/19-09-2025-eu-funded-europe-s-largest-rare-earth-magnet-factory-opens-in-narva-estonia_en

- US-China Soybean Deal Market Impact 2025: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/11/us-china-soybean-deal-comparing-past-export-levels-and-global-market-impacts.html

- China Targets 12M mt US Soybeans 2025: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/112125-china-eyes-buying-12-mil-mt-us-soybeans-by-end-2025-but-doubts-linger

Full list: https://youtu.be/St0hbKNG-bA

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