Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe is navigating a delicate balance between economic resilience and mounting external pressures, as a new European Union (EU)-China trade understanding, LVMH’s latest earnings, and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated outlook reveal both opportunities and vulnerabilities. Gordon explores Europe’s evolving competitiveness agenda, persistent inflation risks, and widening credit spreads—and what these developments could mean for European credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how political uncertainty is colliding with fiscal pressure across Europe, with France increasingly at the centre of investor attention. This episode examines France’s budget challenge, shifting European politics, and why rising Japanese yields could have unexpected consequences for European sovereign debt.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Europe’s economic picture is becoming increasingly divided, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery even as inflation and cautious consumers weigh on retail activity. Gordon also examines the UK government’s emerging industrial and fiscal strategy, as well as new Office for National Statistics (ONS) productivity measures that reshape our understanding of Britain’s long-running productivity challenge.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s push to improve competitiveness, deepen its capital markets, and strengthen energy security, while considering the political and implementation challenges that could slow progress. Gordon also looks at the Bank of England’s redesigned quantitative tightening (QT) programme, Germany’s regional election shock, and new KBRA research on transatlantic private credit and sovereign yield curves.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how persistent inflation, energy-market pressures, shifting EU-China trade policy, and deeper Canada-Europe ties are reshaping the outlook for European credit. Gordon also explores the topic of what stronger UK growth and changing rate expectations could mean for markets as autumn volatility begins to build.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the renewed pressure on European bond markets from inflation risks, improving growth, fiscal challenges, and political uncertainty, which reinforce the prospect of higher rates for longer. Gordon also discusses new European Central Bank research on both synthetic securitisation and the artificial intelligence investment boom, as both could reshape Europe’s markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the key messages from Jackson Hole, Wyoming,[SP1]  examines what the latest euro-area inflation data could mean for the European Central Bank (ECB), and considers why the Bank of England may have more room to wait. We also look at the G20 discussions, rising geopolitical and trade risks, the resurgence of UK mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and what higher sovereign yields could mean for European credit markets in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Germany’s economy is showing signs of life, but the recovery remains heavily dependent on exports and manufacturing. He examines the latest GDP data, improving business confidence, and why Germany’s pension reforms could have longer-term implications for European capital markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines three constraints reshaping European credit: drought and low river levels, evolving bank capital rules, and increasingly scarce power connections for data centres. He explores how each could affect costs, competition, financing, and investment across Europe.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe's drought is exposing the vulnerability of its inland transport network, creating fresh risks for supply chains, manufacturing, and inflation. He also examines European leveraged credit and what another strong earnings season means for investors.