Introduction:
In today’s episode, we explore three critical economic developments shaping global and U.S. markets. First, Russia is slashing the tax-free income threshold for small businesses by 80%, shifting toward direct taxation to support its war economy. This raises serious concerns about the potential collapse of the private sector and the long-term resilience of Russia’s economy. Next, we examine the Trump administration’s cancellation of nearly $8 billion in green project funding across 16 "blue states," injecting political risk into U.S. infrastructure investment and potentially undermining the country’s competitiveness against Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Finally, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee offers an optimistic forecast, predicting the S&P 500 could surge to 7,750 by year-end despite fears of a government shutdown and persistent high inflation. We discuss why Lee sees past shutdowns as buying opportunities and what challenges high inflation poses for the Federal Reserve’s market support.
Content and Timestamp:
00:00:35 Russia's War Economy Strains: Kremlin to Hike Taxes on Citizens and Businesses
00:04:54 Trump Administration Cancels Billions in 'Green' Project Funding, Sparking Outcry in 'Blue States'
00:09:00 Tom Lee Predicts S&P 500 to Hit 7,000 by Year-End, Dismisses Shutdown Fears
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